FONTWELL – FEBRUARY 28
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2015: £25.00 (7 favourites: 2 winners--3 placed--2 unplaced)
2.20: Please note the 'Favourite factor' comments below before reading the analysis. It's worth noting that although two odds on favourites obliged on this card at 1/3 & 4/5 last year, three hot shots were turned over at 2/7-4/9-8/11! Although Paul Nicholls saddled a winner of this opening contest back in 2010, the only four beaten favourites in the race over the longer distance to date hailed from the Ditcheat camp at odds of 1/4-8/11-5/6-10/11. Those facts are worth bearing in mind given that Paul saddles AS DE MEE this time around with an obvious chance, albeit the trainer complicates matters to a fashion having also offered the green light to ORBASA. For the record from my viewpoint, Josh Gifford was one of the true gentleman of the sport down the years.
Favourite factor: This is a new race with which to start proceedings at Fontwell on Sunday though that said, it is the same (Josh Gifford Memorial) event, though the contest has been reduced in distance which in the eyes of the BHA make it a new contest. I have included the stats as they stood up to (and including) last year.
2.50: Seven and eight-year-olds have (equally) shared four of the five renewals between them, whilst the last four gold medallists have been burdened with a minimum weight of 11-1. Putting the stats and facts together produces an overnight short list of FOR TWO, GOLANOVA and ITOLDYOU. The latter named Linda Jewell representative has a fine record at this venue as you can see below.
Favourite factor: The previous three favourites had claimed toteplacepot positions via a medal of each colour before the 2014 event which witnessed the complete demise of the 10/11 market leader. Thankfully, last year's successful 5/4 market leader put us back on track or at least, the majority of us, if you class 44.4% (the percentage relating to 5/4) as a majority!
Fontwell record of course winners in the second race:
3/4--Itoldyou (C&D winner)
1/2--Golanova (C&D winner)
6/27--Venetian Lad (C&D winner x 3)
3.20: Kilcooley won this race last year and I am quite sweet on his chance in the World Hurdle, certainly from a win and place perspective at around the 25/1 mark. Kilcooley became the fourth vintage winner during the relevant decade when scoring 12 months ago and out of interest, seven-year-olds have won a third of the renewals of the big race at Prestbury Park since 1991. Upwards and onward by informing that DISPUTE is the only six-year-old in the field this time around, with connections probably having most to fear from the likes of CHELTENIAN and GRUMETI, especially if the ground continues to dry out which would hinder the chance of Melodic Rendezvous.
Favourite factor: Nine of the 16 market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions thus far, statistics which include six winners. The biggest priced winner during the study period was returned at just 8/1, save for a 16/1 gold medallist which scored two years ago.
Fontwell record of course winners in the third contest on the card:
3.50: I’m never quite sure why this type of event is classed as a 'new race' (as it is in the trade press) simply because the distance has changed. Seven furlongs down to five furlongs on the flat is one thing but when horses race beyond two miles as in this instance, I think the figures should remain in place. The changes often occur via a slight change in trip or variation in terms and conditions but I’m leaving the favourite factor stats as they are which I hope meets with your approval. Gary Moore can do little wrong in the NH sector of late, having saddled five of his last eight runners to winning effect. Gary will be aiming to equal his number of winners (39) at Plumpton during the last five years here at Fontwell on Sunday, with KING COOL boasting claims in this event. Others to peruse over your favourite late night tipple/early morning beverage include TIPPERAIRY and (possibly) ZADOK.
Favourite factor: Seven market leaders have scored during the last 16 years alongside a joint favourite, whilst the biggest priced winner was returned at 4/1. 12 of the 19 jollies have finished in the frame, repeating the point that these stats were produced from the same race, albeit over the longer trip in previous years.
4.20: 10 ‘household handlers’ have won this Hunter Chase event during the last 13 years, statistics which include seven of the last eight contests which is worth noting, as none of the seven runners in 2013 hailed from ‘professional‘ ranks. Philip Hobbs hopes to add his name to the ranks here with MEDDIP EXPRESS who should take the beating, though course and distance winner IMPACT AREA will rightly attract some support I'll wager. JOINT TOGETHER is the other potential winner in the line-up.
Favourite factor: Nine of the 14 favourites have won this event, whilst 12 of the 16 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions. Favourites come into the contest on a six timer on this occasion.
Fontwell record of course winners in the fifth race:
1/1--Impact Area (C&D winner)
4.50: Six-year-olds have secured six of the last eight renewals of this contest which was a strong pointer to last year’s lone representative which won at 3/1. I suggested in my analysis that VERY NOBLE appealed as one of very few potential bets on the card aside from our favourite wager. Chris Gordon has offered the Martaline gelding the chance of defending his crown and with just one six-year-old in the field (BUSHEL), Tom Cannon's mount could score again racing off the same mark as was the case 12 months ago. BUSHEL has contested 11 races on the level since the last of his three assignments over timber. WHILE YOU WAIT and WELLS DE LUNE are others options to consider seriously.
Favourite factor: Seven of the 13 market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions via 10 renewals to date, statistics which include three successful (joint) favourites.
Fontwell record of course winners in the toteplacepot finale:
1/6--Ourmanmassini (C&D winner)
2/9--Very Noble (Dual C&D winner)
All references to placed horses on these pages are based on an exact science regarding general place terms offered by bookmakers and totepool.com
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Fontwell card on Sunday:
1--Dominic Ffrench Davis
1--Mrs Rose Loxton
1--Miss C L Mews
1--A J S Phillips-Hill
1--Miss Sarah Rippon
1--Mrs Harriett Waight
57 declared runners