AINTREE - OCTOBER 29
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £151.60 (7 favourites - 1 winner – 3 placed - 3 unplaced)
Sunday's Placepot permutation at Aintree:
Leg 1 (12.40): 8 (Global Citizen), 3 (Aye Aye Charlie) & 10 (New Quay)
Leg 2 (1.15): 2 (Monsieur Arkadin), 1 (Verygoodverygood) & 5 (Another Frontier)
Leg 3 (1.50): 5 (Call Me Vic), 14 (Bob Tucker) & 8 (Masters Hill)
Leg 4 (2.25): 13 (Stamp Your Feet), 11 (Caius Marcius) & 15 (Return Flight)
Leg 5 (3.00): 3 (Smad Place), 4 (Aso) & 6 (Cloudy Dream)
Leg 6 (3.55): 7 (Ballyarthur) & 5 (Some Are Lucky)
Suggested stake: 486 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Sunday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
12.40: Jonjo’s chasers are normally the horses I home in on from the stable, particularly here at Aintree. On this occasion however GLOBAL CITIZEN commands centre stage having hacked up by seven lengths on his Worcester debut in a bumper following a successful sortie between the flags. AYE AYE CHARLIE catches the eye at the trade press quote of 14/1, whilst NEW QUAY completes my trio against the field ahead of On The Blind Side from a potential value for money perspective.
Favourite factor: Both of the inaugural 3/1 joint favourites finished out of the frame in a ‘short field’ contest, before last year’s even money market leader snared a Placepot position by finishing second. New readers might like to know that the term ‘short field’ relates to races for 5/6/7 runners in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way/Placepot perspectives.
1.15: Six-year-olds have ruled the roost thus far, even though only three renewals of the second race on the card have been contested. Vintage representatives make up the four winners of the race to date, given that two six-year-olds could not be split by the judge two years ago. Vintage raiders are 9/4 to extend the good run before the form book is consulted, with the pick of this year’s relevant declarations hopefully proving to be MONSIEUR ARKADIN and the Twiston-Davies pair VERYGOODVERYGOOD and ANOTHER FRONTIER.
Favourite factor: Two of the three favourites have claimed Placepot position by winning their respective events, albeit one of the gold medallists dead heated when sharing the main prize.
Record of the course winners in the field:
1.50: Ten-year-olds have won seven of the nine renewals of this Veterans' Handicap Chase, with Nigel Twiston-Davies trainer having snared gold on three occasions. The two vintage representatives that really catch my attention here are course winner CALL ME VIC and BOB TUCKER. No horse older than eleven years of age has won this contest, a factor that goes against last year’s winner Shuil Royale from my viewpoint, though that does not rule Harry Fry’s raider out of the Placepot equation of course, albeit I give MASTERS HILL the slight edge this time around. Nigel’s two runners fail to light the blue touch paper on this occasion, though I expect Benbens to at least figure prominently until the taps are turned on.
Favourite factor: Three of the nine favourites have claimed Placepot position to date, statistics which include two (3/1 & 15/8) winners.
Record of the course winners in the third race:
1/1—Shuil Royale (good)
1/3—Call Me Vic (good)
1/7—Baileys Concerto (good)
2.25: All five available Placepot positions have been gained by horses carrying a maximum burden of eleven stones, the winners having scored at 25/1 & 11/1. Rightly or wrongly (after such a brief history) I am eliminating the top nine horses in the handicap, opting for the trio of STAMP YOUR FEET, CAIUS MARCIUS and RETURN FLIGHT. The overnight reserve nomination is awarded to BOBO MAC.
Favourite factor: The inaugural 6/4 market leader lost out (by a length) to an 11/2 chance, before last year’s 11/4 favourite suffered the same fate, albeit Placepot positions were gained on both occasions.
Record of course winners in the fourth event on the Aintree card:
1/2—Massini’s Trap (good)
2/7—Clondaw Kaempfer (good to soft & soft)
3.00: Six of the last eight winners have carried a minimum burden of 11 stones to victory, with SMAD PLACE and ASO making plenty of each way appeal between them for different reasons. The first named Alan King raider has won half of his eight races at this time of year and there was recent evidence (via a video) that all was well with Alan King’s ten-year-old in the lead up to this event. Conversely, ASO is only a seven-year-old and might still have some untapped potential lurking under the saddle and with Venetia Williams have secured a winner the other day, now is the time that the popular trainer really gets her act together. If you want proof of that statement, try and remember to take a look at next Saturday’s Ascot stats which explain what I mean. Trevor Hemmings is a trainer whose colours have been worn by so many winners down the years here at Aintree, including victories in the Grand National of course. Trevor is represented by the Malcolm Jefferson trained CLOUDY DREAM who just gets the vote ahead of Shantou Village from those towards the head of the market.
Favourite factor: Only one (joint) favourite has prevailed during the last decade in this Grade 2 contest, whilst just four of the 14 market leaders have finished in the frame (exact science) during the extended study period of twelve years.
Record of course winners in the ‘Old Roan’:
1/1—Tea For Two (good)
1/4—Royal Regatta (good)
1/5—Third Intention (good)
2/4—Ballybolly (2 x good to soft)
3.35: BALLYARTHUR is a typically consistent Twiston-Davies representative who could really blossom over fences and whilst this is his debut over the larger obstacles under NH rules, it’s worth noting that he has already won ‘between the flags’ in a point to point event. Tom George does better than most with his runners at this venue (see stats below) whereby SOME ARE LUCKY is nominated as the main danger to the selection.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 11/4 favourite claimed a Placepot position by finishing third in a ‘dead eight’ contest.
Record of course winners in the Placepot finale:
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Aintree card on Sunday with five year stats + profits/losses accrued:
6 runners—Tom George (10/55 +39)
6—Nigel Twiston-Davies (10/83 – loss of 17 points)
4—Philip Hobbs (10/90 – loss of 17 points)
4—Dan Skelton (7/54 – loss of 23 points)
4—Colin Tizzard (10/35 +95)
4—Ian Williams (1/18 – loss of 13 points)
3—Malcolm Jefferson (2/17 +1)
3—Alan King (6/65 – loss of 20 points)
3—Donald McCain 5/114 – loss of 83 points)
3—Fergal O’Brien (0/20)
3—Ben Pauling (2/14 – loss of 2 points)
3—Sue Smith (0/31)
2—Henry De Bromhead (1/21 – loss of 15 points)
2—Rebecca Curtis (5/54 – loss of 35 points)
2—Harry Fry (3/29 – loss 9 points)
2—Alex Hales (0/1)
2—Lisa Harrison (0/5)
2—Nicky Henderson (23/126 +18)
2—Emma Lavelle (1/18 – loss of 8 points)
2—Charlie Longsdon (3/51 – loss of 41 points)
2—James Moffat (1/7 +14)
2—Gary Moore (1/19 – loss of 2 points)
2—Neil Mulholland (2/20 +2)
2—J A Nash (2/11 +17)
2—Jonjo O’Neill (12/92 – loss of 29 points)
2—Paul Nicholls (14/132 – loss of 44 points)
2—Tim Vaughan (4/34 – loss of 1 point)
+ 23 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
99 declared runners
Placepot dividend at Wincanton last year:
£393.20 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced