DONCASTER – APRIL 2
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £51.40 (7 favourites – No winners – 5 placed – 2 unplaced)
Sunday's Placepot permutation at Doncaster:
Leg 1 (1.45): 18 (Invermere), 22 (Zealous) & 19 (Brilliant Vanguard)
Leg 2 (2.15): 2 (Benbati) & 5 (Jewel House)
Leg 3 (2.45): 2 (Dream Castle) & 7 (Loujain)
Leg 4 (3.20): 3 (Muntadab), 10 (Ower Fly), 4 (George Bowen) & 6 (Flying Pursuit)
Leg 5 (3.55): 2 (Muntahaa) & 4 (Frontiersman)
Leg 6 (4.30): 18 (Lime And Lemon), 2 (Chancery), 5 (Carnageo) & 1 (Buonarroti)
Suggested stake:384 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Sunday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
1.45: Richard Fahey has saddled five of the last 12 winners of this opening event and the quintet were all four-year-old's which makes for interesting reading. Richard has declared four horses on this occasion, with his lone four-year-old raider INVERMERE taken to lead his stablemates home. Whether Paul Hanagan’s mount will finish in front of the likes of ZEALOUS and BRILLIANT VANGUARD is another matter entirely. If the forecast showers miss Town Moor today, KALK BAY would also enter the equation.
Favourite factor: Eight of the last 14 favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include two winners.
Record of the course winners in the opening event:
1/1—King Of Naples
1/6—Boots And Spurs
2.15: John Gosden has saddled four placed horses in this event since completing his second victory in four years back in 2010, with John not having been represented when his name did not figure in the money in both 2011 and 2016. John saddles JEWEL HOUSE in the first division of the contest, with connections probably having most to fear from BENBATI whose trainer Saeed Bin Suroor has saddled five of his last eleven runners to winning effect.
Favourite factor: Favourites have won seven of the thirteen renewals which have been contested during study period. Five of the other seven market leaders additionally secured toteplacepot positions, the ‘causalities’ having been sent off at 8/15 and 2/1. Three of the five odds on favourites prevailed during the study period.
2.45: The same nominated trainers for the first division of the contest (2.15) clash again here with likely looking types, namely Saeed Bin Suroor (DREAM CASTLE) and John Gosden (LOUJAIN). The juvenile races did not go to plan for yours truly yesterday, though three-year-old maiden events tend to offer more predictable results and the nominated pair will do for me against their ten rivals, the pick of which should prove to be TO DIBBA.
Favourite factor: This is the second division of the previous event on the card, whereby the same stats apply. Favourites have won seven of the thirteen renewals which have been contested during study period. Five of the other seven market leaders additionally secured toteplacepot positions, the ‘causalities’ having been sent off at 8/15 and 2/1. Three of the five odds on favourites prevailed during the study period.
3.20: Four and five-year-olds have won 13 of the last 16 renewals between them (including eleven of the last twelve contests) and vintage representatives expected to figure prominently include OWER FLY, FLYING PURSUIT (1/1 at the venue) and MUNTADAB (2/2) who won the first race on today’s card last year. OWER FLY is the first of just two runners on the card for Richard Hannon who secured a 703/1 treble at yesterday’s meeting via five runners. Richard Fahey has secured three of the last seven renewals, with GEORGE BOWEN representing the stable off 9-4, though the last nine winners have carried a maximum burden of 9-3. Eccleston receives the reserve nomination.
Favourite factor: Seven of the last twelve winners have scored at 66/1--40/1--33/1--16/1--16/1--14/1--14/1, whilst four of the other six gold medallists were returned at 25/1--12/1--7/1--7/1 during the study period. Ten of the eighteen favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions, statistics which include three winners.
Effect of the draw (latest renewal shown first):
21-1-5-18 (20 runners-soft)
3-16-6-5 (21 ran-good to soft)
1-7-2-16 (18 ran-soft)
6-4-8-10 (18 ran-soft)
15-11-4-3 (22 ran-good)
4-17-8-14 (20 ran-good)
2-16-8-13 (18 ran-good to soft)
2-10-22-21 (20 ran-good to firm)
1-6-4-3 (17 ran-soft)
15-11-6 (15 ran-good)
3-7-2-5 (22 ran-good)
9-10-22-14 (22 ran-good)
22-12-20-15 (21 ran-good to soft)
Record of course winners in the fourth race:
1/3—Kenny The Captain
3.55: Four-year-olds have won five of the last six renewals and vintage representatives are 3/1 against extending their good recent run before the form book is consulted. Those odds do not apply in real terms on this occasion, as John Gosden has declared his Dansili colt MUNTAHAA who would only have to reproduce his fourth place effort in the St Leger to go very close in this grade/company. The only negative factor I can find (to a fashion) is that John saddled eight runners yesterday with only Linguistic (beaten a neck at Kempton) going close to winning. The alternative option here is Charlie Appleby’s raider FRONTIERSMAN though connections would not want any rain to fall leading up to the contest I’ll wager, conditions which might let in CHEMICAL CHARGE to offer most resistance to the selection. Last year’s winner Sandro Botticelli would do well to repeat that effort in the face of stronger opposition this time around.
Favourite factor: Four of the last nine favourites have prevailed, though only two of the other nine market leaders (in total) additionally secured toteplacepot positions via ten renewals during the last thirteen years.
Record of course winner in the fifth contest:
4.30: Clive Cox would have been disappointed by his newcomer Move To The Front who finished last in the one of the divisions of the ‘Brocklesby’ yesterday though if truth be told, Adam Kirby could surely take some of the blame for that placing given that he waged war with the front runner for three furlongs or more which eventually took its toll. Clive might enjoy better luck here with LIME AND LEMON with three pound claimer Hector Crouch expected to show more patience aboard the Makfi filly who would not mind more rain to fall on the evidence of her third placed Windsor effort which closed out her season in October. CHANCERY looks a live hope for David O’Meara who saddled the ‘Lincoln’ winner yesterday, whilst others for the short list include BUONARROTI and CARNAGEO.
Favourite factor: Two of the last seven favourites have secured toteplacepot positions to date, statistics which include one (4/1**) winner.
Record of course winners in the Placepot finale:
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Doncaster card on Sunday – followed by their stats at the track yesterday + profits/losses accrued:
8 runners—Brian Ellison (0/2)
8—Richard Fahey (1/14 – loss of 7 points)
5—Tim Easterby (0/2)
4—Karl Burke (0/5)
4—Declan Carroll (1/4 – Profit of 1 point)
4—Keith Dalgleish (0/2)
4—Mick Easterby (0/4)
4—John Gosden (0/5)
4—David O’Meara (1/3 – Profit of 18 points)
4—Kevin Ryan (0/2)
4—Dianne Sayer (--)
4—Alan Swinbank (--)
3—Charlie Appleby (0/2)
3—David Barron (0/1)
3—Paul Midgley (--)
3—John Ryan (0/1)
3—Saeed Bin Suroor (--)
2—Ralph Beckett (--)
2—Tony Carrol (0/1)
2—Clive Cox (0/1)
2—Michael Dods (0/2)
2—David Evans (0/4)
2—James Eustace (--)
2—Les Eyre (--)
2—Roger Fell (0/2)
2—Ivan Furtado (0/2)
2—Richard Hannon (3/5 – Profit of 22 points)
2—Charlie Hills (0/1)
2—Dean Ivory (--)
2—Phil Kirby (0/1)
+ 26 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
124 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividend from last year:
Ascot: £141.30 – 8 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 4 unplaced