PONTEFRACT – JULY 30
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £74.60 (6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced)
Sunday's Placepot permutation at Pontefract:
Leg 1 (2.00): 1 (Kalagia) & 8 (Sosian)
Leg 2 (2.30): 9 (Regal Mirage), 10 (Cornerstone Lad) & 1 (Mysterial)
Leg 3 (3.00): 1 (Maraakib), 3 (Lopes Dancer) & 4 (Miningrocks)
Leg 4 (3.30): 5 (Tashweeq), 1 (Custom Cut) & 4 (Gabrial)
Leg 5 (4.00): 4 (Highland Acclaim), 6 (Art Obsession) & 11 (Magical Effect)
Leg 6 (4.30): 6 (Sharja Bridge) & 7 (Soldier Blue)
Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Sunday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
2.00: Someone was suggesting to me yesterday afternoon that I should always include Richard Fahey’s horses on a Saturday which is fair comment when looking at his winners, yesterday being a prime example with 50/1, 14/1, 7/2 & 10/3 chances scoring on behalf of the yard. Even on a very good day however, to cover the 14,915/1 accumulator, the number of four-folds to accommodate yesterday’s 29 runners from the yard was 23,751. Imagine backing winners at yesterday’s prices and losing £883.60 to 10p stakes, especially when the total stake (even to 10p) would have been £2,375.10! Those figures are based on 29 different races yesterday which was not the case, with Richard typically saddling more than one runner in certain events. That would have affected the staking pattern – but you hopefully take my point. There is no short cut to making money in this business I’m afraid but the advice is to look at what you intend to win today, rather than what you might (would) have won/lost yesterday! The reason that content came into my head at this precise moment in time is because Richard saddles the projected favourite SOSIAN in this opening event, the Showcasing filly having found one too good for her via just the two assignments to date. KALIGIA (Mark Johnston’s only runner today) is the obvious danger and this pair should certainly get us through to the second leg of our favourite wager.
Favourite factor: This is a new race with which to start proceedings.
2.30: Ten different trainers have saddled the winners during the last decade which does not help a great deal, whilst three-year-olds have the best record with four victories. Anything goes on the weight front because although the last three winners have carried a minimum burden of 9-2, five of the previous six gold medallists carried weights ranging between 8-1 & 8-12. A quartet of junior representatives line up this time around, though only two of them carry the right weights according to the trends, namely REGAL MIRAGE and CORNERSTONE LAD. There was some interesting money for the top weight MYSTERIAL overnight and this good to soft course winner could outrun his odds which remain at 18/1 in places.
Favourite factor: Nine renewals have slipped by since the last (11/10) favourite prevailed. Five successive winners during the period were returned in double figures, ranging between 12/1 & 28/1. That said, the last three gold medallists were sent off at 7/1 (twice) and 15/2.
Course winner in the second race:
2/5—Mysterial (good to firm & good to soft)
3.00: Five-year-olds have held the edge recently having secured three of the last five contests, whilst all ten winners during the last decade have carried a minimum burden of nine stones. In a tough event to call, I’m relying on the three horses which have ticks in both of the trend boxes, namely MININGROCKS, LOPES DANCER and MARAAKIB. Please note that the trio is not listed in order of preference because at the time of writing, there is no preference!
Favourite factor: Only two (4/1 & 5/2) favourites have won during the last decade, with three of the last six gold medallists having been sent off at 28/1, 20/1 & 11/1.
Course winner in the third event on the card:
3/12—Corregio (2 x good & good)
3.30: This is a brutal six runner affair with the sextet failing to have won a race via an aggregate of their last 51 races! CUSTOM CUT makes some appeal at the around the 11/2 mark as the top weight is not ground dependent by any means, albeit his form has edged away in recent years but that said, these rivals are anything but consistent. Connections of TASHWEEQ might consider that an unfair ‘jibe’ at their raider who was a winner of two of his first three races (one on good to soft going), without having been totally exposed to date. GABRIAL completes my tentative trio against the other three contenders but money will not be spent on this event aside from our favourite wager. If you decide to opt for the other trio, I could not offer a reasonable argument against your selections!
Favourite factor: Although only two favourites have won during the study period, nine of the last ten winners have scored at a top priced of 11/2, whilst the other 10/1 ‘outsider’ would not have been a total success on the books for many bookmakers.
Course winner in the fourth contest:
1/1—Custom Cut (good to firm)
4.00: Five of the last six winners have carries 9-4 or more, whilst six-year-olds have held the call by snaring four of the last eight renewals. HIGHLAND ACCLAIM possesses ticks in both of the trend boxes, even though he has not registered back to back wins since 2014. Still available at 11/1 in plenty of books (as short as 9/1 in others), HIGHLAND ACCLAIM still rates as an each way option, arguably alongside ART OBSSESSION and MAGICAL EFFECT. None of the three options are well drawn though that said in this type of six furlong Pontefract event, luck in running often has plenty to do with gold medallists having won their respective contests.
Favourite factor: Only one favourite has prevailed during the last decade, the average winning price during the period standing at 7/1. That said, six of the last seven market leaders have finished in the frame (exact science).
Course winner in the fifth race:
2/5—Gin In The Inn (good & good to firm)
3/8—Avon Breeze (good to firm – good – good to soft)
3/6—Johnny Cavagin (2 x good & good to firm)
1/3—Mishaal (good to firm)
1/1—Duke Cosimo (good)
4.30: Roger Varian’s last two runners won on Saturday and it looks like SHARJA BRIDGE will complete the hat trick for the popular trainer. The speculative investor inside your truly has to offer an each way option however, especially as the Pontefract Placepot dividend would be huge is the favourite did not make the frame in the last leg, whatever the previous results on the card! The 25/1 trade press quote about SOLDIER BLUE looks a tad fanciful, with Brian Ellison’s raider added into the Placepot mix. As you make your selections for your Placepot permutation today, spare a thought for a guy who would have had six pounds worth of yesterday’s Ascot £3.244.40 dividend (£1.00 unit stake) but for missing out on one leg and no, it wasn’t in the cavalry charge event! Like I suggested earlier, look forward rather than backwards, though that’s easier for me to say than the relevant investor at Ascot. By the by, Richard Fahey has nine runners on the card and if you fancy any of them, what will your staking pattern be?
Favourite factor: Four favourites have won during the last decade, whilst nine gold medallists scored at a top price of 3/1.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Pontefract card on Sunday – followed by their five ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:
9 runners—Richard Fahey (3/34 – loss of 32 points)
5—Paul Midgley (1/11 – loss of 3 points)
5—Lawrence Mullaney (0/1)
5—David O’Meara (5/22 – Profit of 10 points)
3—Micky Hammond (1/14 – loss of 7 points)
3—Michael Herrington (0/3)
2—Eric Alston (0/2)
2—James Bethell (0/4)
2—Ruth Carr (1/12 – loss of 1 point)
2—Declan Carroll (1/8 – Profit of 5 points)
2—Tony Coyle (1/3 – Profit of 31 points)
2—Tim Easterby (4/26 – Profit of 1 point)
2—Sally Haynes (0/2)
2—Iain Jardine (0/3)
2—Karen McLintock (1/2 – Profit of 39 points)
2—Ronald Thompson (0/1)
+ 25 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
75 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Uttoxeter: £88.00 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 un