LINGFIELD – DECEMBER 31
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £279.10 (7 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 3 unplaced)
Sunday's Placepot permutation at Lingfield:
Leg 1 (11.40): 10 (Captain Pugwash), 3 (Groundfrost) & 5 (Enigmatic)
Leg 2 (12.10): 11 (Rennys Lady) & 7 (Kachumba)
Leg 3 (12.40): 4 (Carp Kid) & 1 (Ojala)
Leg 4 (1.15): 3 (Rainbow Rebel), 4 (Celestial Spheres) & 1 (Al Hamdany)
Leg 5 (1.45): 11 (Goring), 7 (Mystique Moon) & 1 (My Target)
Leg 6 (2.15): 4 (Pride Of Angels) & 2 (Bernie’s Boy)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Sunday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
11.40: Horses who have suffered ‘traffic problems’ last time out’ have a way of getting beaten again the next day in my experience but that said, I can see why CAPTAIN PUGWASH was popular on the boards overnight. The difference with the selection being that he was attempting to ‘double up’ having scored on his previous start, unlike so many ‘unlucky’ horses which seem to find trouble time after time. Punters who have ‘beaten the book’ will probably have most to fear from GROUNDFROST at the business end of proceedings, whilst offering ENIGMATIC as the alternative each way option.
Favourite factor: Twelve renewals have been contested during the last decade via spilt divisions, with four clear marker leaders and three joint favourites having prevailed. Indeed, 11/12 scored at a top price of 6/1 whilst 8/14 favourites secured Placepot positions.
Course winners in the opening event:
1/3—Spirit Of Sarwan
12.10: RENNY’S LADY showed a degree of ability first time up and if laying up a little bit closer to the pace this time around, David Evans could take his recent ratio to 5/16 with his only runner on the day, having achieved some half decent results during the holiday period. There is plenty of money in the positive exchange queue for KACHUMBA at the time of writing and from trap five, Rae Guest’s Mayson filly could reach the frame again following her bronze medal effort at the second time of asking.
Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Lingfield card.
12.40: Having saddled just four winners between the months of July and September (inclusive - via a 5% strike rate) James Osborne’s year was heading off the rails. 18 subsequent gold medallists offering 41 points of level stake profit will have cheered the trainer up no end and there is a chance that Jamie could end 2017 on a high via his course winner CARP KID who was well backed in the dead of night. OJALA would appear to be the obvious danger.
Favourite factor: Eight renewals had slipped by without a winning favourite being recorded until last year when the bookmaker’s bubble was thankfully burst. That said, the previous four winners had scored at a top price of 7/1 whereby the layers were not having everything going their own way, using general terms which in no way accurately reflects all the books on the rails, a point that ‘Big Mac’ used to ignore.
Course winner in the third race:
1.15: Marco Botti saddled the first winner of this event at odds of 7/1 twelve months ago, though punters investing in his representative here will have to take 2/1 (thereabouts) about AL HAMDANY on this occasion. By the time that Tuesday arrives, Mark Johnston will only have saddled one horse in a week and that thoroughbred is RAINBOW REBEL who has made the long journey in an attempt to keep the home fires burning back at the ranch. Throw CELETIAL SPHERES into the ring as well and we can deduce that Marco is a long way from taking anything for granted about his potential ‘double’ twelve months on.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 10/11 favourite only just sneaked a Placepot position via a bronze medal performance.
Course winner in the fourth contest on the card:
1.45: A victory here for GORING would end a sensational year for trainer Eve Johnson Houghton who has broken through the 50 winner barrier this season, having scored with just 23 gold medallists the year before last. I offer GORING a genuine each way/Placepot chance in this grade/company, nominating MYSTIQUE MOON and MY TARGET as the potential spoilers in the pack as far as Eve and her team is concerned. The latter named six time course winner would have been the outright call had six months not passed without the benefit of a racecourse appearance.
Favourite factor: Four of the five favourites have claimed Placepot positions via four renewals, stats which include three (9/4, 9/4 & 2/1) winners.
Course winners in the fifth race:
2.15: Gary Moore snared a double yesterday albeit from nine runners but that said, three of his other contenders ran second, stats that bode well for the chance of PRIDE OF ANGELS in the final leg of our favourite wager. BERNIE’S BOY is another realistic each way play from my viewpoint and I am content to let this pair complete my permutation, always believing that you will want to set aside some cash for the festivities tonight. I will not be partaking as I am usually tucked up in slumber before eight o’clock at night in order to offer my dead of night thoughts. However, that does not stop yours truly in wishing you a wonderful New Year to you and yours. Enjoy but don't forget, leave that 'late night amber' in the glass - it's Cheltenham tomorrow!
Favourite factor: Two winning (3/1 & 4/5) favourites have ‘bookended’ the last six results, the other winners having scored at 16/1, 12/1 & 8/1 twice.
Course winners in the Placepot finale:
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Lingfield card on Saturday – followed by their ratios at the track this season before Saturday’s results + profits/losses accrued:
6 runners—Jamie Osborne (8/53 +7)
4—Michael Attwater (9/57 +49)
3—Richard Fahey (3/41 – loss of 26 points)
3—Phil McEntee (2/26 – loss of 10 points)
3—Gary Moore (3/50 – loss of 17 points)
2—Charlie Appleby (2/9 – slight loss)
2—John Best (3/39 – loss of 24 points)
2—Marco Botti (4/20 +8)
2—John Bridger (2/59 – loss of 27 points)
2—John Butler (10/39 +35)
2—Patrick Chamings (3/23 – loss of 5 points)
2—Simon Dow (8/34 +33)
2—Rae Guest (2/8 – loss of 3 points)
2—Peter Hedger (2/21 – loss of 7 points)
2—Ron Hodges (0/9)
2—Richard Hughes (5/57 – loss of 40 points)
2—Eve Johnson Houghton (2/21 – slight profit)
2—Dean Ivory (4/37 – loss of 11 points)
2—Henry Spiller (0/5)
2—Charlie Wallis (2/27 – loss of 8 points)
2—Lisa Williamson (0/9)
+ 24 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
75 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Uttoxeter: £40.90 – 8 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced
Warwick: £43.30 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 2 unplaced