MUSSELBURGH – FEBRUARY 4
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2017: £60.60 (6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced)
Sunday's Placepot permutation at Musselburgh:
Leg 1 (12.50): 3 (Cousin Oscar), 5 (Celtic Flames) & 6 (The Last But One)
Leg 2 (1.25): 1 (We Have A Dream) & 6 (Uptown Funk)
Leg 3 (2.00): 3 (Claimantakinforgan) & 5 (Simply The Betts)
Leg 4 (2.35): 1 (Mr Whipped), 4 (Red River) & 3 (Ravenhill Road)
Leg 5 (3.10): 11 (Jump For Dough), 5 (Cresswell Legend) & 3 (Connetable)
Leg 6 (3.45): 7 (Golden Investment) & 6 (Carlton Ryan)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Sunday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
12.50: CELTIC FLAMES looks a tad too big at 11/1 in several places at the time of writing and I could fancy his Placepot chance, though the trade press 5/1 quote about COUSIN OSCAR always looked fanciful, especially when taking Donald McCain’s recent ratio into account. Donald has saddled 13 of his last 36 runners to winning effect, stats which have produced 29 points of level stake profit. Equally however, the 2/1 price chalked against COUSIN OSCAR looks plenty short enough, whereby I will also be adding THE LAST BUT ONE into the mix on his chasing debut.
Favourite factor: This is a new race with which to open proceedings at Musselburgh today.
1.25: WE HAVE A DREAM is very much the horse to beat after landing his hat trick the last day, the three relevant victories have been gained by an aggregate of 22 lengths. Nicky secured a short priced (9/2) treble at Sandown yesterday and the first of his three runners on the card should win with the minimum of fuss. I’ll take a punt on course and distance winner UPTOWN FUNK to fill the forecast position, with the Keith Dalgleish team saddling winners for fun at present (recent stats of 6/23 – LSP of 39 points).
Favourite factor: Nicky Henderson will be hoping that We Have A Dream can become the fifth winning favourite in the last six years in this event.
Record of the course winner in the field:
1/1—Uptown Funk (good to soft)
2.00: CLAIMANTAKINFORGAN looks a little more vulnerable than Nicky’s market leader in the previous race from my viewpoint though that said, the next two horses in the betting are not attracting any money at the time of writing. That leaves SIMPLY THE BETTS as the alternative option, though the 22/1 quote about Ballyvic Boru might not last too long this morning I’ll wager.
Favourite factor: Two of the three favourites thus far have finished in the frame without winning their respective contests.
Record of the course winners in the third contest:
2/3—Beyond The Clouds (2 x good)
2.35: This is a quality Class 2 (Albert Bartlett) trail and no mistake, especially with MR WHIPPED having been declared. There are some interesting (contrasting) market movements regarding Nicky Henderson’s raider however, because although overnight support with a few firms has seen the favourite shorten to 8/13 in places, 10/11 is freely available on the exchanges at the time of writing. RED RIVER and PRESENT MAN are other horses to consider whilst northern hopes lie with RAVENHILL ROAD. One trend looks sure to go ‘belly up’ this afternoon, with six-year-olds coming into the race on a five timer, with just the two ‘rags’ representing the vintage on this occasion.
Favourite factor: Three of the six favourites have snared Placepot positions via five renewals. There are two winning favourites to report, albeit they were accompanied by two gold medallists which were returned at 22/1 & 10/1 on two occasions.
3.10: Dual course winner JUMP FOR DOUGH (seemingly) looks to be taking on the southern raiders by himself on behalf of ‘northern’ stables, with Lucinda Russell’s Milan gelding in search of a hat trick this afternoon. CRESSWELL LEGEND has already landed his treble and with Kim Bailey having saddled four winners of late, David Bass has a chance if improving his 18% strike rate for the stable this season in today’s grade/company. Given the 10/1 and 9/2 (respective) prices for CONNETABLE and STAMP YOUR FEET, I’ll opt for the first named (Paul Nicholls) raider to claim the other Placepot position.
Favourite factor: Both (11/4 & 11/8) market leaders had obliged, before last year’s 7/2 favourite missed out on a Placepot position when finishing fourth behind horses which filled the frame at odds of 15/2, 7/1 & 40/1.
Record of the course winners in the fifth race:
1/1--Cresswell Legend (good to soft)
1/6--Arthurs Secret (good)
2/3--Jump For Dough (good to soft & soft)
3.45: GOLDEN INVESTMENT and CARLTON RYAN have not suddenly become big movers in the market this morning but there is plenty of realistic positive money in the exchange queues in the dead of night to suggest that at least one of these two horses should land the Placepot dividend between them, if we were live going into the last leg.
Favourite factor: The Placepot finale is another new race on the Musselburgh programme.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Musselburgh card on Sunday:
7 runners—Brian Ellison
+ 16 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
55 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Taunton: 167.70 – 6 favourites – 2 winners & 4 unplaced