CARLISLE – NOVEMBER 5
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £143.60 (6 favourites - 1 winner – 3 placed - 2 unplaced)
Sunday's Placepot permutation at Carlisle:
Leg 1 (12.55): 1 (Count Meribel) & 3 (Aloomomo)
Leg 2 (1.30): 9 (Just Minded), 6 (Solstice Star) & 11 (Mister Whitaker)
Leg 3 (2.00): 7 (Versifier), 8 (Castletown) & 5 (Chozen)
Leg 4 (2.30): 12 (Cadeau George), 4 (Blameitalonmyroots), 2 (Abracadabra Sivola) & 10 (Waldorf Salad)
Leg 5 (3.05): 9 (Westend Story) & 3 (One For Harry)
Leg 6 (3.35): 3 (Belami Des Pictons), & 2 (Waiting Patiently)
Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Sunday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
12.55: Five-year-olds have won eight of the last sixteen renewals of this event though that said, six-year-olds have claimed five of the last eight contests. Nigel Twiston-Davies has his team in fine form as the world could see when landing the one-two result in the ‘Charlie Hall’ at Wetherby yesterday. The penalty for winning here at Carlisle recently will make life tougher for Nigel’s COUNT MERIBEL from a win perspective but the five-year-old’s Placepot chance is there for all to see following a string of fine efforts leading up to his success. Warren Greatrex is just getting his team back into top gear and ALOOMOMO can also be expected to figure prominently in grade/company.
Favourite factor: Nine of the last fifteen renewals have fallen the way of the favourites of one description or another. Thirteen of the last fourteen market leaders have finished in the frame (exact science).
Record of the course winner in the field:
1/1—Count Meribel (soft)
1.30: This is ‘Trevor Hemming country’ and the famous green, yellow and white colours will be carried by Sue Smith’s JUST MINDED, the trainer having saddled plenty of winners at this corresponding meeting down the years. Mick Channon has saddled 24 consecutive losers now and though I don’t expect MISTER WHITAKER to end the barren spell from a win perspective necessarily, Mick’s five-year-old (the youngest runner in the race) should be there or thereabouts turning for home. Trainer Martin Keighley will still be ‘dining out’ after his Cheltenham double last weekend and stable staff could have another reason to celebrate with inmate SOLSTICE STAR boasting claims, especially with Richard Johnson booked to ride.
Favourite factor: Both (5/2 & 11/4) favourites had missed out on Placepot positions before last year’s 11/4 market sneaked into the money via a bronze medal effort.
Record of the courses winners in the field:
1/1—Central Flame (soft)
1/1—Just Minded (good)
2.00: Five-year-olds lead the six-year-olds 3-2 via six renewals thus far whilst horses carrying 11-2 or more have secured twelve of the sixteen available toteplacepot positions, statistics which include five of the six winners. Although potentially 16 ounces under the weight barriers via a jockey claim here, there will be worse outsiders on the card than five-year-old VERSIFIER from my viewpoint, with trainer Oliver Sherwood having saddled three winners at this meeting during the last five years. Other five and six years to consider include CASTLETOWN and CHOZEN.
Favourite factor: Four of the seven favourites (via six renewals) have claimed toteplacepot positions, statistics which include three (6/5, 7/4 & 3/1**) winners.
2.30: Ten of the last thirteen winners have carried a maximum burden of 11-4 whereby eleven of the fifteen runners could be eliminated if you take the stats at face value. Seven-year-olds boast the best recent record having secured four of the last eight contests. Putting the stats and facts together produces a short list of CADEAU GEORGE, BLAMEITALONMYROOTS and ABRACADABRA SIVOLA. This is such a tough race to call however, that I am adding WALDORF SALAD into the mix, especially having landed yesterday’s Wetherby dividend which boosted the coffers.
Favourite factor: Four favourites have won during the last fourteen years. Eight of the fifteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions during the last twelve years.
Record of the course winner in the field:
1/6—Russe Blanc (soft)
3.05: ONE FOR HARRY won the first two (of three) renewals of this event but was missing from the declarations twelve months ago. Trainer Nicky Richards secured a 12/1 double at Wetherby on Friday, now saddling three runners here at his local track on Sunday. Nicky’s ONE FOR HARRY has secured six of his seven victories thus far between the months of November and January (inclusive) and from a Placepot perspective at least, I feel obliged to include Adam Nicol’s mount into the mix. There is potential for suggesting that WESTEND STORY could be ‘thrown in’ on his handicap debut, despite having flattered to deceive for some time now following a great effort in the Championship Bumper at the Cheltenham festival last year. SKY KHAN could outrun his odds by squeezing into the frame at a decent price.
Favourite factor: Two of the three market leaders have claimed Placepot positions to date, stats which include one (9/4) gold medallist.
Record of the course winner in the fifth race on the card:
2/6—One For Harry (good to soft & soft)
3.35: Although only four runners have been declared for the Placepot finale, it’s difficult to leave any one of these contenders out of the overnight mix, especially with two biggest priced runners hailing from top stables up here in the north. That said, BELAMI DES PICTONS is well in according to the official figures, though WAITING PATIENTLY could prove to be a tough nut to crack, especially under his preferred (soft) conditions. The fact that Malcolm Jefferson’s latter named raider is asked to give ‘Belami’ six pounds should bring the pair close together at the business end of proceedings.
Favourite factor: All three market leaders had secured Placepot positions (one winner) before last year’s 2/5 favourite was beaten in a two horse race.
Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Carlisle card on Sunday alongside stats for this season at the track with profit/loss figures to level stakes accrued:
4 runners—Sue Smith (1/7 – loss of 1 point)
3—Warren Greatrex (No previous runners this season)
3—Malcolm Jefferson (0/2)
3—Rebecca Menzies (0/3)
3—Nicky Richards (1/2 +3)
3—Lucinda Russell (0/5)
3—Venetia Williams (1/3 +2)
2—Mick Channon (No previous runners this season)
2—Keith Dalgleish (No previous runners this season)
2—Alex Hales (No previous runners this season)
2—Lisa Harrison (0/2)
2—Martin Keighley (No previous runners this season)
2—Donald McCain (2/14 – loss of 1 point)
2—Ben Pauling (No previous runners this season)
2—Dianne Sayer (No previous runners this season)
2—Michael Scudamore (0/1)
2—Oliver Sherwood (No previous runners this season)
2—Nigel Twiston-Davies (1/2 – Slight profit)
2—Tom Vaughan (1/3 – loss of 1 point)
2—John Wainwright (No previous runners this season)
+ 28 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
76 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Huntingdon: £18.10 – 9 favourites – 5 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced