NEWMARKET – MAY 6
Corresponding toteplacepot dividends from the last seven years:
2017: £206.70 (7 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 4 unplaced)
2016: £190.20 (6 favourites – 3 winners & 3 unplaced)
2015: £166.60 (6 favourites: No winners - 4 placed - 2 unplaced)
2014: £272.40 (8 favourites: 2 winners - 3 placed - 3 unplaced)
2013: £539.90 (7 favourites: 1 winners - 1 placed - 5 unplaced)
2012: £348.70 (7 favourites: No winners - 2 placed - 5 unplaced)
2011: £2,715.70 (10 favourites: No winners - 3 placed - 7 unplaced)
Average dividend: £634.31 - 51 favourites in total - 8 winners - 14 placed - 29 unplaced
Sunday's Placepot permutation at Newmarket:
Leg 1 (1.50): 13 (Adamant), 11 (The Grand Visir) & 12 (Alqamar)
Leg 2 (2.20): 1 (Wuheida) & 7 (Tisbutadream)
Leg 3 (2.55): 1 (Gifted Master), 3 (Mr Lupton), 7 (Victory Angel) & 15 (Captain Colby)
Leg 4 (3.35): 5 (Happily), 12 (Soliloquy) & 7 (Laurens)
Leg 5 (4.10): 3 (Fly The Nest) & 1 (Barend Boy)
Leg 6 (4.45): 3 (Lah Ti Dar) & 6 (Qazyna)
Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes
*Yesterday Placepot perm produced 32 winning lines (including all six winners), albeit the £20.20 dividend was a little disappointing.
1.50: Twelve of the last fifteen winners have carried weights of 9-2 or less, whilst four and five-year-olds have won the last thirteen renewals between them. The facts and stats suggest that ADAMANT, THE GRAND VISIR and ALQAMAR should run well against their twelve rivals the pick of which might prove to be Maori Bob. The three Placepot representatives I have called upon are listed in order of preference, the trio all qualifying via the weight and vintage trends. Last year’s winner carried 9-10 to buck the eight trend, though that was understandable given that Frontiersman chased home Highland Reel in a Group 1 contest (Epsom’s Coronation Cup) next time out!
Favourite factor: Nine of the twenty one market leaders have secured Placepot positions during the study period, statistics which include four winners.
Record of the three course winners in the opening event:
1/1—Celestial Spheres (good to firm)
1/2—Grey Brittain (good to soft)
1/3—Oasis Fantasy (good) – won this race in 2016
2.20 (Dahlia Stakes): Four-year-olds have won twelve renewals during the last sixteen years, with vintage representatives coming to the gig on a nine-timer on this occasion. The pick of this year’s relevant sextet should prove to be WUHEIDA who represents Charlie Appleby who secured a 138/1 four-timer here yesterday from just seven runners on the card. Charlie’s record on the Rowley Mile this season now reads 10/21, a ratio which I doubt any trainer has ever matched at this stage of the season, not even the likes of Noel Murless, and Sir Henry Cecil. TISBUTADREAM might chase the favourite home on this occasion, albeit at a respectable distance.
Favourite factor: Ten of the last twenty two market leaders have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include five winners.
2.55: Five-year-olds have won six of the last fourteen renewals during which time, ten gold medallists have carried weights of 9-1 or less. MR LUPTON bucked the weight trend twelve months ago and racing off a three pound lower mark, Richard Fahey’s raider has a Placepot chance (at least) for all to see, especially as the Elnadim gelding carries four pounds less this time around. That said, this is a rattling good handicap which will take plenty of winning and two outsiders with definite claims in my book are GIFTED MASTER and CAPTAIN COLBY. The reserve nomination is offered to VICTORY ANGEL.
Favourite factor: Ten of the twenty six market leaders have secured Placepot positions (three winners) during the study period.
Record of the eight course winners in the third contest on the card:
4/8—Gifted Master (2 x good to firm – good to soft – good)
1/4—Magical Memory (good to soft)
1/2—Mr Lupton (good to firm) – won this race last year at 10/1
1/6—Aeolus (good to soft)
1/2—Ekhtiyaar (good to soft)
1/2—Victory Angel (good to firm)
2/5—Eastern Impact (2 x good to firm) – won this race in 2015
1/2—Captain Colby (good to firm)
3.35 (1000 Guineas): 12 of the last 20 winners of the 1000 Guineas have been returned at 9/1 or more and the pick of the potential ‘outsiders’ in the field from my viewpoint this year are LAURENS and LIQUID AMBER. That said, punters have enjoyed better luck of late and once again, fancied runners are taken to dominate at the business end of proceedings with HAPPILY (one of four Aidan O’Brien runners) and SOLILOQUY having reached the race safely after one of the longest winters on record! What a pointer that comment would have made twelve months ago to the winner Winter, representing the Aidan O’Brien yard which snared the forecast for good measure. Aidan has secured four victories in the race thus far, coming into this year’s renewal on a hat trick, providing he (and Ryan Moore) have had time to catch their breath after returning from a fruitless hop across the pound to Churchill Downs last night.
Favourite factor: Twelve of the twenty one market leaders have reached the frame during the study period (six winners). If you want to go further back to the last 30 years (31 market leaders), the stats are as follows: ten winners—seven placed—-fourteen unplaced. All three odds on favourites won during the extended study period, though the last of them prevailed back in 1996.
1000 Guineas draw factor in recent years:
7-9-1 (14 ran-good to firm)
8-15-3 (16 ran-good)
13-11-2 (13 ran-good to firm)
4-14-3 (17 ran-god to firm)
7-13-11 (15 ran-good to firm)
2-7-9 (16 ran-good to soft)
16-4-3 (18 ran-good to firm)
18-15-17 (17 ran-good to soft)
8-2-3 (14 ran-good to firm)
3-7-11 (15 ran-good to firm)
16-5-14 (21 ran-good to firm)
11-9-3 (13 ran-soft)
21-14-8 (20 ran-good to firm)
10-17-2 (16 ran-good)
Newmarket record of the four course winners in the 1000 Guineas:
1/3—Altyn Order (good)
1/2—Anna Nerium (good)
4.10: Charlie Appleby won his first renewal of this event twelve months ago and one thing we can be certain of is that it will not be the trainer’s only winner down the years. FLY THE NEST represents the yard on this occasion and the Kodiac newcomer (March foal) might be good enough to give race fitness/experience away to BAREND BOY to winning effect. Konchek is expected to lead the remaining juveniles home.
Favourite factor: 13 of the last 17 winners have scored at odds of 8/1 or less (including three favourites). 11 of the 19 market leaders secured Placepot positions during the period. Six of the last eight winners have scored at a top price of 5/1.
4.45 'Pretty Polly': John Gosden came to the party on a four timer last year but his 4/6 hot pot failed to secure a Placepot position, let alone win this Listed event. Most unusually, LAH TI DAR is John’s only runner on the card and I do not expect a repetition of last year’s disaster for favourite punters. Despite Charlie Appleby saddling two runners in the contest, I expect Roger Varian’s course winner QAZYNA to offer most resistance at the business end of proceedings.
Favourite factor: All twenty winners during the study period have scored at 11/1 or less (nine winning favourites), whilst thirteen of the twenty two market leaders finished in the frame.
Record of the course winner in the ‘Pretty Polly’:
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.