CHESTER – AUGUST 6
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £139.10 (7 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 3 unplaced)
Sunday's Placepot permutation at Chester:
Leg 1 (2.05): 1 (Delph Crescent) & 4 (Red Force One)
Leg 2 (2.35): 5 (Prestbury Park), 3 (Haddaf) & 2 (Dragons Tail)
Leg 3 (3.10): 1 (Zenon) & 4 (Nadaitak)
Leg 4 (3.40): 7 (Gabrial The Tiger), 1 (Breakable) & 2 (Calder Prince)
Leg 5 (4.15): 1 (Cotai Glory), 4 (Kimberella) & 7 (Avon Breeze)
Leg 6 (4.50): 3 (Demons Rock) & 4 (Angel Islington)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Sunday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
2.05: Richard Fahey and Tom Dascombe held 21 of the 57 entries between them at the time of writing and with other horses drifting overnight, it might best be left to DELPH CRESCENT and RED FORCE ONE to get us safely through to the second leg of our favourite wager. Zoffelee is the alternative Dascombe raider to consider.
Favourite factor: This is a new race with which to open proceedings. That said, this is the same race given the basic principle of two-year-olds running over seven furlongs and if you want to take notice of the following facts and stats when it was not deemed as a novice event (which I will offer this year for the last time), read on. Nine of the last twelve favourites have finished in the frame in as many years, statistics which include seven winners. The 4/11 favourite come to the party on a five timer last year but the market leader failed to deliver when finding one too good close home.
2.35: This is a difficult six runner teaser to assess, whilst stating for openers that I prefer PRESTBURY PARK to Rufus King of the Mark Johnston declarations. Mark finished as the top trainer at not so glorious Goodwood again last week, bagging over 14 points of level profit stakes into the bargain. Mark has now saddled 27 winners at the meeting during the last six years. Upwards and onward here by tentatively suggesting that HADDAF and DRAGONS TAIL might offer the biggest threat to PRESTBURY PARK between them.
Favourite factor: Only one of the four favourites has secured a Placepot position via three renewals thus far. Last year’s race was ‘dissolved down’ to a ‘win only’ three runner race in which the 5/1 outsider of three got the better of the 13/8 joint favourites. New readers might like to know that the term 'short term' relates to races for 5/6/7 runner in which just the first two horses home qualify for each way/toteplacepot positions.
Record of course winner in the second race:
1/1—Dragons Tail (good)
3.10: I have always been wary of this type of event at Chester in terms of distance at least because invariably, you need a ‘nimble type’ to negotiate all the twists and turns which is terms of a ‘marathon’ event, does not add up to yours truly. Upwards and onward by stressing that it is interesting how the top trainers ‘sniff out’ these new events for their respective entries but then again, that’s why they continue to rule the roost in the flat sector of the sport. John Gosden (ZENON) and Sir Michael Stoute (NADAITAK) might have most reason to thank the BHA for staging the new contest. TOR is the other potential winner in the field according to the gospel of yours truly.
Favourite factor: This is another new race on the Chester card.
Record of course winner in the third event on the card:
1/2—Here And Now (good)
3.40: Five-year-olds have won three of the last four renewals with GABRIEL THE TIGER being this year’s lone representative. Richard Fahey’s Kodiac gelding reeled off a hat trick last summer (two of the victories were gained here on the Roodee) but has yet to strike form this term. He ran down the field in this event last year but runs off a five pound lower mark on this occasion. Most resistance might emerge from the likes of BREAKABLE and CALDER PRINCE at the business end of proceedings.
Favourite factor: Favourites have won six of the last ten contests, whilst eight market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions during the study period.
Record of course winners in the fourth event:
1/2—Michele Strogoff (good to soft)
1/15—Gabrial’s Kaka (good)
1/17—Chosen Character (good)
3/11—Gabrial The Tiger (2 x good & good to soft)
4.15: Horses carrying a minimum burden of nine stones have secured nine of the last eleven contests, with COTAI GLORY heading the names in this Listed event. Relevant trainer Charlie Hills followed three successive winners with four losers yesterday, though this looks less competitive whereby Charlie could be greeting another winner here at Chester. KIMBERLLA is slightly preferred to Judicial over this (six furlong) trip, whilst the 40/1 (each way) odds I secured about AVON BREEZE (to minimum stakes) earlier this were worth taking from my viewpoint. If the ground remains genuinely good to soft, her 4/11 record under such conditions would make a mockery of the price, albeit I fully understand that as a forthcoming ‘mum’, I am taking a chance with Richard Whitaker’s eight-year-old mare. Taking a chance; isn’t that want punting is all about?
Favourite factor: Ten of the thirteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions during the last twelve years during which time, three clear market leaders and one joint favourite prevailed. That said, last year’s 8/11 favourite could only finish third, albeit Richard Fahey’s raider Eastern Impact still secured a Placepot position.
Record of course winners in the fifth race:
2/2—Judicial (2 x good)
2/5—Kimberella (good & good to firm)
4.50: Tom Dascombe has saddled three of the last five winners of this contest with the trainer having made six declarations this time around, albeit he has withdrawn one of the sextet at the time of writing. That still leaves Tom with half of the (ten strong) field with DEMONS ROCK appearing to be the pick of the relevant quintet, especially from a ‘trap two’ position. Andrew Balding pushed Mark Johnston all the way last week when delivering three winners at Goodwood and Andrew’s Dark Angel filly ANGEL ISLINGTON looking to offer the main threat to the Tom Dascombe raid. The average Placepot dividend at this corresponding meeting during the last five years stands at £107.60. Looking at the make-up of the races whilst offering a spread of £80.00 - £140.00, would you buy or sell?
Favourite factor: All 12 winners in as many years have scored at a top price of 6/1, statistics which include six successful market leaders. Nine of the twelve market leaders secured toteplacepot positions in the process.
Favourite factor: Last year's inaugural 7/2 favourite claimed a Placepot position when finishing third behind horses returned at 16/1 and 4/1.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Chester card on Sunday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:
11 runners—Richard Fahey (7/54 – loss of 12 points to level stakes)
10—Tom Dascombe (2/30 – loss of 19 points)
6—Mark Johnston (4/29 – loss of 13 points)
3—Andrew Balding (6/26 – Profit of 40 points)
2—James Bethell (0/1)
2—Tony Coyle (1/8 – Profit of 2 points)
2—Tim Easterby (3/16 – Profit of 2 points)
2—David Evans (1/15 – loss of 10 points)
2—Charlie Hills (1/3 – level on the year)
2—Richard Hughes (No previous runners at the track this season)
+ 15 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
57 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Market Rasen: £79.50 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced