Placepot Pointers

Placepot pointers – Sunday 7th February

MUSSELBURGH

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2015: £37.00 (7 favourites: 3 winners--1 placed--3 unplaced)

 

1.00: An interesting opening event given that many leading trainers have become involved in only the second running of this contest.  BRAIN POWER was only a 6/1 chance in the big bumper event at Aintree in April, a sure sign that connections think a lot of this Kalanisi gelding who had previously won on debut at Newcastle under yielding conditions.  A subsequent victory at Kempton over timber confirmed the potential and it might take a smart type to lower his colours on Sunday.  As a 17 length course and distance winner last time out, the chance of LAC LEMAN has to be respected, whilst the declarations of CHARBEL and SIMON SQUIRREL add interest to proceedings.
Favourite factor: Last year's inaugural 8/11 favourite finished last of four in a 'win only' contest, the gold medallist having scored at 2/1.

Musselburgh record of course winners in the first race:

1/1--Lac Lemon (C&D winner)

 

1.30: Four of the five winners have carried 11-3 or more for good measure, statistics which bring FULL SHIFT and THE GREY TAYLOR into the overnight mix, with the other 'qualifier' YORKIST fronting up the potential dangers to the selections from a Placepot perspective.  THE GREY TAYLOR has gone off the boil to a fashion, though it is still too early to send Brian Ellison's Royal Anthem raider to my 'last chance saloon'.  FULL SHIFT is a winner of three of his eight races to date and there was plenty to like about the manner of his victory at Kempton last time out.  I have always found YORKIST a frustrating type but that said, the eight-year-old is not devoid of talent and could shake up the afore mentioned pair if on top of his game on Sunday.
Favourite factor: Only two of the five favourites has secured a toteplacepot positions to date (gold and bronze medallists).

Musselburgh record of course winners in the second contest:

1/2--Chestnut Ben (C&D winner)

3/16--Quito Du Tresor

 

2.00: The last two (officially rated) winners have won off marks of 141 & 138, whereby the chance of top rated SIT CHAUVELIN (130) is there for all to see, especially given his Musselburgh record (see stats below).  The potential joker in the pack however (not yet having earned a rating) is the Paul Nicholls representative TOMMY SILVER who looks a genuine threat.  Only beaten a length by a well rated Henderson horse (Fixe Le Kap) at Newbury in December, Paul's Silver Cross raider would only have to show any normal amount of improvement from his British debut effort to shake up the selection.  Ashoka and Sikander deserve their respective places in the field but I don't envisage either horse winning the contest.
Favourite factor: Eight of the 11 favourites during the last 13 years have won this event, though only one of the other three market leaders additionally secured a toteplacepot position.

Musselburgh record of course winners in the third race on the card:

2/2--Sir Chauvelin (Dual C&D winner)

 

2.30: Eight-year-olds have won four of the seven contests with last year's lone vintage representative having scored at 11/4.  ITTIRAD and FIVE IN A ROW are this year's relevant entries and John Ferguson (ITTIRAD) will want to atone for a beaten 8/11 chance on last year's card I'll wager.  John will want to secure as many victories as possible before starting his 'new job' and his nine time winner can quickly put a recent Kempton reversal behind him in another four runner 'win only' contest on the card.  SAMTEGAL won the previous race on the programme back in 2013 but has struggled to live up to expectations from my viewpoint, having won just two of 11 subsequent assignments.
Favourite factor: Three clear and one joint favourite have won this event via seven renewals to date.

Musselburgh record of course winners in the fourth event:

1/2--Samtegal

 

3.00: Six-year-olds have secured seven of the last nine renewals and vintage representatives are 5/6 to improve the ratio before form is taken into account. DAYS OF HEAVEN was not 'knocked about' when his chance had gone on seasonal debut in Cheltenham's Greatwood Hurdle at the Paddy Power meeting in November. That said, Barry Geraghty's mount carries 16 ounces more than what could be classed as an ideal weight here, as nine of the 10 winners during the last decade have carried a maximum burden of 11-4.  Stable companion CARDINAL WALTER sits comfortably within that sector and Andrew Tinkler's mount is not one to easily dismiss I'll wager.  Others to consider over your favourite late night tipple/early morning beverage include MANGO CAP and HAWK HIGH, albeit Tim Easterby's latter named raider sits three pounds beyond the weight barrier.
Favourite factor: Just four of the last 13 market leaders have finished in the money from a toteplacepot perspective, statistics which include two winners.

Musselburgh record of course winners in the fifth contest:

2/3--Aristo Du Plessis (Dual C&D winner)

1/2--Shrewd (C&D winner)

 

3.30: O O SEVEN is one of the apples of Nicky Henderson's eye and whatever his fate in this toteplacepot finale, his future in the sport is assured being the "big baby" that he is.  This marked step up in trip is likely to suit though this should be taken into account when assessing his chance, given that an extension of a mile has to be taken on trust.  Irish raider FAGAN is the potential fly in the ointment from my perspective, especially as Gordon Elliot's fellow six-year-old has won over this trip three times already, albeit in far less exalted company.
Favourite factor: The inaugural (2013 - Paul Nicholls trained) 7/4 favourite finished last of six - beaten 19 lengths in the process, whilst the 2014 market leader was also turned over at 4/11 from a win perspective.  One of the two 11/4 joint favourites won the race last year whilst the other market leader finished out with the washing.

Musselburgh record of course winners in the sixth race:

1/1--Fagan

 

All references to placed horses on these pages are based on an exact science regarding general place terms offered by bookmakers and totepool.com

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Musselburgh card on Sunday:

8--Brian Ellison

7--Nicky Henderson

4--Paul Nicholls

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4--David Pipe

3--Nick Alexander

3--Lucinda Russell

2--Gordon Elliott

2--Dan Skelton

2--Sue Smith

2--Dai Williams

1--Kim Bailey

1--Alan J Brown

1--Karl Burke

1--A Campbell

1--Mrs L A Coltherd

1--Stuart Coltherd

1--Keith Dalgleish

1--Mrs C Drury

1--Tim Easterby

1--James Ewart

1--John Ferguson

1--Jim Goldie

1--Chris Grant

1--Micky Hammond

1--Iain Jardine

1--L Kerr

1--Mrs K Lynn

1--James Moffatt

1--Pauline Robson

1--Norman Sanderson

1--Oliver Sherwood

1--Mrs Kim Smyly

1--Mrs S J Stilgoe

1--Sandy Thomson

1--Simon West

1--Peter Winks

63 declared runners

 

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