PLUMPTON – JANUARY 7
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2017: £43.30 (7 favourites - 2 winners – 2 placed – 3 unplaced)
Sunday's Placepot permutation at Plumpton:
Leg 1 (12.30): 1 (Marley Firth) & 14 (Miss Tynte)
Leg 2 (1.05): 1 (Rather Be) & 3 (Gregarious)
Leg 3 (1.35): 1 (Harefield) & 5 (Flemenskill)
Leg 4 (2.05): 6 (Snippetydoodah), 8 (Bact To Black) & 9 (Heluvagood)
Leg 5 (2.35): 12 (Bindon Mill), 8 (Leo Luna) & 6 (Shanroe Santos)
Leg 6 (3.10): 6 (Finnegan’s Garden), 1 (Bramble Brook) & 2 (Ramore Will)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
12.30: This is simply a case of whether Dan Skelton’s MARLEY FIRTH is good enough to give so much weight to his rivals under poor conditions. A facile winner on heavy ground at Chepstow, Dan’s Flemensfirth gelding looks a ready made winner despite the concession given his fair effort in a Grade 2 Sandown event the last day. The current 4/5 call from Skybet looks sure to set the phones ringing in the relevant office anytime now. MISS TYNTE will represent better value than Jaisalmer in terms of an alternative each way call of you want to take on the market leader.
Favourite factor: 18 of the last 20 winners have scored at 13/2 or less during which time, ten clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won. 14 jollies have secured toteplacepot positions during the study period.
1.05: Market leaders have a fine record in this event (see stats below) and with Nicky Henderson’s team in fine form, this looks to be something of a penalty kick for RATHER BE facing just three (ordinary) rivals. Nick’s seven-year-old Oscar gelding has threatened to be a decent type for some time now and this discipline could make a man of him. The going is the only concern in all honesty though as a soft ground winner in the past, connections would not be happy to name conditions as a reason for being beaten in such a low grade event. GREGARIOUS is 2/2 on soft ground whereby if the conditions are not reported to be too bad prior to flag fall, Lucy Wadham’s raider would be the forecast call.
Favourite factor: Nine of the thirteen favourites have won to date, with ten market leaders finishing in the frame.
1.35: Five year-olds have won five of the last six renewals and if the first two favourites have obliged, there could be a ton of money running up on Alan King’s vintage representative HAREFIELD. The treble on the first three favourites on the card equates to around the 5/2 mark at the time of writing, whilst sports mad enthusiasts will (likely as not) get greedy by including West Ham and Arsenal (televised games) in an accumulator which works out to around 10/1. Although Alan saddled 13 winners during the collective months of November/December, the relevant gold medallists scored at a disappointing 10% strike rate on behalf of the yard, whereby Alan will be hoping to pick up the thread now in the new year. The trainer certainly seems to have found a golden opportunity for his recent Warwick winner, whilst Wayne Hutchinson’s mount will be less troubled by conditions that most I’ll wager. FLEMENSKILL can put his Aintree debut effort to good use by following the favourite home, albeit at a respectable distance in all probability.
Favourite factor: 12 of the 13 winners have scored at 9/2 or less, stats which include four winning favourites. Eight of the fourteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions thus far.
2.05: Bookmakers will welcome this event to get some more horses into their ledgers (I’m showing my age again) compared to the opening three events on the card. I’m offering each way/Placepot opportunities for two outsiders here, namely SNIPPETYDOODAH and HELUVAGOOD. The first named course and distance winner was the subject of some overnight support, whilst Vic Darnall (fine record at this venue down the years) saddles Heluvagood whose 20/1 quote catches the eye in this grade/company. More logical winners include CAFÉ AU LAIT and BACT TO BLACK I guess but something has to give on the Placepot card in order for a decent dividend to be declared and this race looks set up to give the majority of the layers a break.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 7/4 favourite found one to good from a win perspective when securing a Placepot position.
Record of the course winners in the fourth race:
1/4—Yukon Deelta (good)
2.35: Ten of the last eleven winners have carried weights of 11-6 or less, as have 22 of the 33 horses which have secured toteplacepot/each way positions in the ‘Sussex National’ to date. Nine-year-olds have won six of the last nine renewals and putting the stats and facts together produces a short list of BINDON MILL, LEO LUNA and SHANROE SANTOS. The reserve nomination is awarded to SHOTGUN PADDY.
Favourite factor: Six of the 12 favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions to date though we still await our first successful market leader from a win perspective.
Record of the course winner in the ‘Sussex National’:
3/12—Frank N Fair (good – good to soft – soft)
3.10: As a maiden following 15 assignments to date, bookmakers will happily accommodate BRAMBLE BROOK though from a Placepot perspective, the chance for Colin Tizzard’s raider to reach the frame is there for all to see. FINNEGAN’S GARDEN has a soft ground course victory to his name and with Zoe Davidson boasting the best seasonal (strike rate) stats on offer at Plumpton this term, Zoe’s nine-year-old has to be included in the mix. RAMORE WILL completes my trio against the field.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 5/2 favourite finished last of the six finishers in a ‘short field’ contest. New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualiry for each way/Placepot positions.
Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:
1/1—Ramore Will (good)
1/2—Finnegan’s Garden (soft)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Plumpton card on Sunday – followed by their seasonal (in brackets) and career ratios at the track + profits/losses accrued on both counts:
8 runners—Gary Moore (6/36 – loss of 6 points) – 162/891 – loss of 11
5—Daniel Steele (0/2) – 6/48 +1
3—Nick Gifford (0/9) – 28/196 loss of 24
3—Chris Gordon (3/17 – slight loss) – 35/258 +20
3—Dan Skelton (5/14 – loss of 2) – 7/32 – loss of 14
3—Lucy Wadham (0/1) – 9/63 – loss of 15
2—Vic Dartnall ((First runners here this season) – 6/19 +9
2—Zoe Davison (4/7 +39) – 17/213 – loss of 33
2—Warren Greatrex (1/4 +9) – 15/67 +5
2—Linda Jewell (1/10 –loss of 1) – 23/364 – loss of 128
2—Neil King (1/10 – loss of 3) – 23/154 +6
2—Emma Lavelle (First runners here this season) – 25/121 +18
2—Nick Mitchell (0/1) – 2/29 – loss of 15
2—Neil Mulholland (4/16 – loss of 5) – 17/114 – loss of 23
2—Richard Rowe (0/5) – 43/444 – loss of 201
2—Colin Tizzard (2/11 – loss of 2) – 34/216 – loss of 2
+ 24 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
69 declared runners