EXETER – APRIL 8
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2017: £36.20 (7 favourites – 1 winner – 4 placed – 2 unplaced)
Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:
Race 1: 70.5% units went through – 3/1, 11/4* & 7/1
Race 2: 30.7% of the remaining units when through – 16/1 & 5/2 (Evens)
Race 3: 59.3% of the remaining units went through – 9/4*, 8/1 & 6/1
Race 4: 84.3% of the remaining units went through – 7/2 & 5/2*
Race 5: 53.7% of the remaining units went through – 9/2, 5/2* & 8/1
Race 6: 34.7% of the units secured the dividend – 14/1, 20/1 & 9/2** (9/2**)
Sunday's Placepot permutation at Exeter:
Leg 1 (2.05): 5 (Under the Woods) & 7 (Oh Dear Oh Dear)
Leg 2 (2.35): 4 (Show On The Road), 5 (I See You Well) & 7 (Doc Carver)
Leg 3 (3.10): 6 (Duhallow Lad), 3 (Caspar King) & 4 (The Gipper)
Leg 4 (3.40): 1 (Alberto’s Dream) & 2 (The Kings Writ)
Leg 5 (4.15): 6 (Gonnabegood), 5 (Shoofly Milly), 13 (Kayf Tiger) & 3 (Mister Drifter)
Leg 6 (4.45): 1 (Colt Lightning) & 5 (Plantagenet)
Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes
2.05: It should be a case of UNDER THE WOODS running a race in his own time when securing the contest, though you might have read similar words to your cost down the years. Thankfully the favourite will not attract a working man’s wager so not too many fingers would be burned if the Evan Williams raider fails to run to the best of his form. Should that be the case, OH DEAR OH DEAR is offered up as the insurance call.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 11/4 market leader found one too good when secured a Placepot position.
2.35: It’s interesting to note that Philip Hobbs has put Michael Nolan up again on SHOW ON THE ROAD, given that Richard Johnson rides at the meeting. It’s good to see young pilots given their chance and hopefully the Flemensfirth heavy ground course winner will go close again today. Connections might have most to fear from the likes of I SEE YOU WELL (fair each way chance – ignore the 14/1 trade press quote) and DOC CARVER. Lord Napier is a worthy favourite but the current odds make no appeal whereby I’m hoping that the Bowen raider finishes out of the frame.
Favourite factor: Last year’s even money favourite let supporters down from a win perspective and from a Placepot perspective.
Record of the two course winners in the second race:
1/1—Show On The Road (heavy)
3/6—Trans Express (2 x sot & good)
3.10: Two outsiders have come in for some support overnight, with course winner CASPAR KING marginally preferred to THE GIPPER of the pair. Whether either horse will be able to keep tabs on DUHALLOW LAD at the business end of proceedings is another matter entirely. It will be interesting to see if the support continues through the day, whilst the latter named Alan Jones representative was very impressive when scoring the last day. Towcester can be one of most stamina sapping courses in the land. The Bay Birch won there on heavy ground just ten days ago and the race might have left its mark, as will the fifteen pound hike in his handicap mark. Major Hindrance would be considered as the reserve nomination accordingly.
Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Exeter card.
Record of the two course winners in the third event:
1/1—Major Hindrance (heavy)
1/1—Caspar King (soft)
3.40: Although the other five runners are not on offer at huge prices this morning, it seems that only THE KINGS WRIT is capable of stopping ALBERTO’S DREAM from securing a nap hand (five-timer), especially as trainer Tom Lacey cannot do a thing wrong just now. Tom has saddled six of his last eight runners to winning effect, stats which have produced 18 points of level stake profit for good measure. ALBERTO’S DREAM will not enhance the LSP a great deal today but that said, Tommy O’Brien should complete his hat trick aboard the nine-year-old gelding in this grade/company. GENERAL GIRLING is expected to lead the others home.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 5/2 market leader found the 7/2 third favourite too strong when securing a Placepot position in a ‘short field’ frame. New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runners race in which only the first two horses home qualify relating to each way bets and Placepot ‘success’.
4.15: Jeremy Scott has quietly declared a couple of horses here and the wily trainer might have plenty to shout about as the race becomes competitive with GONNABEGOOD possibly leading SHOOFLY MILLY home on this occasion. Not to be left out of the equation, David Pipe has also spied a chance for MISTER DRIFTER me thinks in a race which should not prove difficult to win. There will be worse outsiders on the card than KAYF TIGER I’ll wager if you’re chasing losses, though that is something I cannot condone. As a wise man once told me, the last race is the first race tomorrow; in other words, there is no such thing as the ‘last race’.
Favourite factor: Two of the three favourites (via two contests) have claimed Placepot positions without winning their respective events.
Record of the four course winners in the field:
1/2—De Bene Esse (heavy)
1/6—Steel Express (heavy)
1/9—Shoofly Millie (soft)
4.45: COLT LIGHTNING is the other Tom Lacey runner on the card and for well documented reasons about the trainer being in such great form, Sean Bowen’s mount in the first name on the team sheet. PLANTAGENET is expected to reward each way supporters in the last leg of our favourite wager.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 3/1 favourite snared the silver medal in a non Placepot event at the back end of the card.
Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:
3/11—Only Gorgeous (good – good to firm – soft)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.