PLUMPTON – APRIL 16
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £298.90 (6 favourites – 4 winners – 1 placed – 1 unplaced)
Sunday's Placepot permutation at Plumpton:
Leg 1 (2.05): 2 (Peak To Peak) & 1 (Our Reward)
Leg 2 (2.35): 4 (Code Of Law), 1 (Rude And Crude) & 5 (Killabraher cross)
Leg 3 (3.10): 1 (Flashman) & 4 (Lake Chapala)
Leg 4 (3.45): 6 (Song Light), 8 (Excellent Team & 11 (Templier)
Leg 5 (4.20): 2 (Bardd) & 5 (Dusky Raider)
Leg 6 (4.55): 2 (Little Windmill), 3 (Instingtive) & 4 (Lord Aldervale)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Sunday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
2.05: Five-year-olds have won four of the last seven contests and vintage representative PEAK TO PEAK should score the Paul Nicholls yard which boasts a 40% strike rate at the venue this season, albeit only one of Paul’s previous eighteen runners had scored at the track. OUR REWARD is the only logical danger and the seven pound claimer aboard Jamie Snowden’s seven-year-old raider could bring the pair ‘upsides’ turning for home, if the pilot can call on all of his claim which at a potential weight of eleven stones, should not be difficult.
Favourite factor: Favourites of one description or another have won five of the last seven renewals, whilst eight of the last ten market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions.
2.35: Ten-year-olds have won three of the last five renewals when represented whilst horses aged in double figures generally have claimed six victories during the last eleven years. Six of the last eight winners have carried a maximum burden of 10-10. There will be worse outsiders on the card than KILLABRAHER CROSS from my viewpoint and the course and distance winner fits both of the trend boxes. Looking at the odds on offer this morning, I cannot understand how Paddy Butler’s raider is at least twice the price of any other horse in the race, especially on this fast ground. Upwards and onwards by admitting that CODE OF LAW and RUDE AND CRUDE are likelier winners.
Favourite factor: Two of the last winners have scored at 16/1 & 12/1, whilst five winners in total during the last eleven years have won at 9/1 or more. Three clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won during the study period, whilst five of the twelve favourites secured Placepot positions.
Record of the course winners in the second race:
1/4—Rude And Crude (heavy)
2/7—Killabraher Cross (2 x good)
2/20—Goring Two (soft & heavy)
3.10: Gary Moore's runners invariably demand respect at one of his local tracks and with ground definitely in his favour here, FLASHMAN should be another winner for the popular trainer. LAKE CHAPALA is preferred to Lovely Bubbly as the main threat, particularly as Chris Gordon’s raider is offered at around twice the price of ‘Bubbly’ at the time of writing.
Favourite factor: Five of the six winners in total scored at a top price of 3/1. Three clear market leaders and one joint favourite obliged, whilst five of the nine favourites finished in the frame (exact science).
Record of the course winners in the third contest on the card:
2/5—Flashman (good to firm & good to soft)
3.45: SONG LIGHT flatters to deceive all too frequently, though there is no denying his chance in this grade having been highly tried on all three starts this season. Still relatively unexposed, SONG LIGHT has cheek-pieces fitted which could make the difference between winning and running another of his decent races in defeat. I would not rule a line through the only course winner (TEMPLIER) in the field despite his 20/1 quote this morning, whilst EXCELLENT TEAM offers better value for money that the Nicholls/Henderson pair from my viewpoint, especially from a Placepot perspective.
Favourite factor: One clear and one joint favourite have won via seven renewals, with only three of the ten market leaders having claimed Placepot positions. This was the race last year which decimated Placepot units in their thousands with a 16/1 winner scoring from a 20/1 chance in a ‘short field’ event. This was the only race which was unpredictable from a Placepot perspective, yet a great dividend of £298.90 was returned, despite the other five market leaders all finishing in the frame! New readers might like to know that the term ‘short field’ relates to 5/6/7 runner race in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way and Placepot perspectives.
Record of the course winners in the ‘Sussex Champion Hurdle’:
1/1—Templier (good to soft)
4.20: Four-year-olds have won three of the last six renewals, whilst Tim Vaughan is the only trainer to have saddled two winners of the race during the study period. Tim's four-year-old raider DUSKY RAIDER is the lone vintage representative. BARDD is the obvious spoiler in the pack as far as Tim and his team is concerned with the massed ranks of the Elite Racing Company cheering Nicky Henderson’s raider home likely as not.
Favourite factor: Two of the last three winners scored at 25/1 & 14/1 following almost total domination by favourites for a long period. Seven marker leaders have won via ten renewals during the last eleven years, whilst nine of the ten favourites secured Placepot positions.
4.55: Kentford Myth was fortunate to score at the first time of asking over the bigger obstacles and has plenty to prove here considering the odds on offer. Indeed, it might be worth taking a chance on LORD ALDERVALE who receives so much weight and is back in the care of his former handler (Steve Woodman). Either way, INSTINGTIVE and (especially) LITTLE WINDMILL are likely to have too much for the pair at the business end of proceedings and with LITTLE WINDMILL best at home on this ground, Neil King’s raider is expected to score.
Favourite factor: The Placepot finale is a new race at the meeting.
Record of the course winners in the sixth race:
1/1—Little Windmill (good to firm)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Plumpton card on Easter Sunday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:
4 runners—Gary Moore (12/60 – Profit –f 10 points)
4—Seamus Mullins (0/14)
3—Neil King (2/15 – loss of 5 points)
3—Tim Vaughan (0/8)
2—David Bridgwater (0/6)
2—Paddy Butler (0/4)
2—Nick Gifford (1/11 – level on the season)
2—Chis Gordon (6/23 – Profit of 4 points)
2—Nicky Henderson (2/6 – loss of 2 points)
2—Linda Jewell (2/23 – Profit of 7 points)
2—Neil Mulholland (2/22 – loss of 14 points)
2—Paul Nicholls (loss of 2 points)
2—Jamie Snowden (0/3)
2—Steve Woodman (0/3)
+ 11 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
45 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
The meetings at Ffos Las & Southwell (A/W) are new fixtures on the racing calendar