WINCANTON – APRIL 17
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2015: £4,930.20 (6 favourites: 2 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)
Sunday's Placepot permutation at Wincanton:
Leg 1 (1.55): 2 (Antiphony) & 4 (Dragoon Guard)
Leg 2 (2.25): 1 (Zubayr), 2 (Alphabet Bay) & 5 (Pure Vision)
Leg 3 (2.55): 4 (It's A Steal), 10 (Sonny The One) & 2 (Miss Tenacious)
Leg 4 (3.30): 3 (Benachie), 6 (Pennywell) & 2 (Benzel)
Leg 5 (4.05): 1 (Emerging Talent) & 2 (Bun Doran)
Leg 6 (4.40): 2 (High Aspirations) & 3 (Lawless Island)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Sunday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
1.55: Five-year-olds have won five of the last eleven renewals, whilst Philip Hobbs has saddled four of the last seven winners without having contested the race last year. Ten of the last thirteen winners have carried weights of 10-13 or more and putting the stats and facts together suggests that beaten favourite ANTIPHONY should make amends for recent losses. Conor Smith's mound fits all three trainer/vintage/weight trends! Connections might have most to fear from DRAGOON GUARD and BLUE APRIL. The three horses are listed in order of preference at the overnight stage.
Favourite factor: Thirteen of the fifteen winners have figured in the front three horses in the market whilst four favourites have won this event.
2.25: A typical novice hurdle event in effect, with just three of the nine runners having realistic chances of winning, though even then, the starting prices might not reflect that point. ZUBAYR, ALPHABET BAY and PURE VISION are listed in order of preference, though connections of the trio will all fancy their chances to a fashion. PURE VISION is added into the mix mainly because of Anthony Honeyball's decent record at the track this season (see stats below), notwithstanding his recent 38% strike rate.
Favourite factor: This is the first of two new races on Wincanton's Placepot card.
2.55: Evan Williams is one of the main trainers in the land whose horses run so much better at some tracks than at others. With a 3/6 record at Wincanton this season, anything that Evan offers the green light to is worth a second glance, a scenario which certainly applies to IT'S A STEAL. Evan's beaten favourite suffered from harsh treatment from the handicapper last season for putting back to back victories together though slowly but surely, the assessor is beginning to relax his grip on the nine-year-old. Others to consider over your favourite late night tipple/early morning beverage include soft/heavy specialist SONNY THE ONE and MISS TENACIOUS, a horse which boasts impressive Wincanton figures as you can see below.
Favourite factor: The second of the new races on the programme.
Wincanton's record of course winners in the third race:
1/1--Dance Floor King
3.30: Ten of the last twelve winners have carried weights of 10-13 or more which basically eliminates the bottom three horses if you take the weight stats seriously. This leaves ten runners to assess, the pick of which should prove to be BENACHIE, PENNYWELL and BENZEL. Tim Vaughan (BENACHIE) appears to be the only trainer to have 'smelt the coffee' over the last few days, saddling the only seven-year-old in Sunday's line-up, given that vintage representatives have secured four victories during the last decade. BENZEL is the 'dark horse' in the field and with Jonjo's runners back in half decent form, Richard Johnson could add another winner to his tally en route to (at last) becoming the champion jockey. Having been 'in the game' for fifty years now, I can totally state that Richard is the most deserving jockey under any code to finally be hailed as champion of his trade.
Favourite factor: Nine of the seventeen market leaders have finished in the frame, statistics which include three winners.
Wincanton's record of course winners in the fourth event:
4.05: Five-year-olds have ruled the roost having won five of the nine contests, with five horses representing the vintage this time around. That said, Paul Nicholls has saddled three winners via his last five runners in the race whereby EMERGING TALENT is the horse to beat in the field. Paul's seven-year-old raider has finished 'in the two' in seven of his nine races to date, winning three of those events for good measure. Five-year-old BUN DORAN is the main threat from my viewpoint ahead of KERROW who for all his talent, remains a maiden after seven assignments.
Favourite factor: Seven of the nine favourites have finished in the frame to date, statistics which include four winners.
4.40: Eight-year-olds have won three of the last six contests and HIGH ASPIRATIONS holds definite claims of maintaining the momentum on behalf of the vintage. Harry Cobden has three decent rides on the card and the five pound claimer could be completing a double (or even a treble) aboard HIGH ASPIRATIONS. LAWLESS ISLAND is the potential joker in the pack.
Favourite factor: Nine renewals have slipped by since the last market leader prevailed though that said, five of the last six gold medallists have scored at a top price of 4/1. Six of the twelve favourites during the last eleven years have finished in the money (exact science) in the toteplacepot finale.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Wincanton card on Sunday:
7--Colin Tizzard (8/40 at Wincanton this season)
5--Nail Mulholland (1/39)
4--Philip Hobbs (6/19)
4--Paul Nicholls (14/45)
4--Tim Vaughan (3/7)
3--Tom George (1/11)
3--Nigel Hawke (0/4)
3--Emma Lavelle (3/12)
3--Jeremy Scott (4/14)
3--Evan Williams (3/6)
2--Dai Burchell (0/4)
2--Harry Fry (2/15)
2--Warren Greatrex (1/6)
2--Anthony Honeyball (3/10)
2--Sophie Leech (0/1)
2--Gary Moore (0/10)
2--Seamus Mullins (2/18)
2--Jonjo O'Neill (--)
2--John Panvert (0/9)
+ 19 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
76 declared runners
We have lost the Stratford meeting, whilst Wetherby inspect the track on Saturday after this column was written. Wetherby's fixture is a new meeting whereby no trends are in place.
Only four trainers have saddled more than one winner at the corresponding meeting during the last five years:
4--Paul Nicholls (7/4*-6/5*-4/6*-1/5*)
3--Philip Hobbs (7/1-9/2-9/4*)
2--Jonjo O'Neill (22/1 & 11/4*)
2--Colin Tizzard (14/1 & 11/4)
Careful where you tread though guys, as Paul Nicholls saddled a beaten (1/10) favourite on the card last year.