WINCANTON – APRIL 23
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £20.30 (6 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced)
Sunday's Placepot permutation at Wincanton:
Leg 1 (1.50): 1 (Dreamcatching) & 2 (Stealing Mix)
Leg 2 (2.20): 3 (The Caller), 7 (Lets Go Dutchess) & 4 (Mighty Leader)
Leg 3 (2.50): 3 (Meldrum Lad), 1 (Orbasa) & 4 (Innocent Girl)
Leg 4 (3.25): 2 (Bistouri D’Honore), 1 (Cousin Khee) & 4 (Baraymi)
Leg 5 (4.00): 1 (Capitaine) & 2 (Major Davis)
Leg 6 (4.30): 1 (Best Boy Barney), 4 (The Mythologist) & 6 (Definite Ridge)
Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Sunday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
1.50: Five-year-olds have ruled the roost having won five of the ten contests, though the stats are only offered for your records this time around. Paul Nicholls has saddled four winners via his last six runners in the race whereby
this contest looks done and dusted with Paul having declared DEAMCATCHING. Although his course victory was gained under soft conditions, Dreamcatching has also scored on good ground whereby some bookmakers at the track will be betting ‘on the distance’ I’ll wager. Whilst Neil Mulholland boasts recent stats of 4/15, his raider STEALING MIX might require a fifty yard start in order to make a race of it. With quite a few profitable Placepot days behind us recently however, I’m including Neil’s representative in my mix.
Favourite factor: Eight of the ten favourites have finished in the frame to date, statistics which include five winners.
Record of the course winner in the opening race:
2.20: Ten of the last thirteen winners have carried weights of 10-13 or more which basically eliminates the bottom three horses if you take the weight stats seriously, albeit LETS GO DUTCHESS won well at Newton Abbot last week. A seven pound penalty might not stop her in this grade/company despite the weight stats. The pick of the remaining four runners will hopefully prove to be THE CALLER and MIGHTY LEADER. Value for money relating to the Nicholls pair will only be conspicuous by its absence and if we can successfully oppose the top pair in the handicap, the eventual dividend could be worth winning, despite the lack of numbers at Wincanton today.
Favourite factor: Nine of the eighteen market leaders have finished in the frame, statistics which include three winners.
Record of the course winner in the second event on the card:
1/1—San Satiro (good to firm)
2.50: This is a much needed ‘win only’ contest on the card in order that the Placepot dividend might just be worth winning. Ashcott Boy looks safely held and with the other trio barely separable via the form book, there is little point in omitting any of them, hoping for the horse carrying the least Placepot units prevails. For the record, marginal order of preference is listed as MELDRUM LAD, ORBASA and INNOCENT GIRL.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 5/2 favourite finished second when claiming a Placepot position.
3.25: Five-year-olds have won six of the last twelve renewals, whilst ten of the last fourteen winners have carried weights of 10-13 or more and putting the stats and facts together suggests that BISTOURI D’HOMORE and BARAYMI are worth including in our Placepot permutation this afternoon. COUSIN KHEE receives the reserve nomination.
Favourite factor: Fourteen of the sixteen winners have figured in the front three horses in the market whilst four favourites have won this event.
4.00: Three ‘win only’ races in Placepot races on most cards would guarantee a decent dividend but with two of them likely to be won by long odds on chances, we will just have to hope for the best on this occasion. Dreamcatcher looks like being sent off at around the 2/9 mark in the first race, whilst CAPITAINE will be even shorter for this event, especially if there is plenty of ‘running up’ money riding on the Paul Nicholls representative via earlier results. MAJOR DAVIS is preferred to Status Quo as the forecast call.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 1/8 market leader duly obliged by eight lengths.
Record of course winners in the fifth event:
2/2—Capitaine (good & good to soft)
4.30: Eight-year-olds have won four of the last seven contests though once again (as in the opening race) we are thwarted as no relevant horses line up on this occasion. Just the five runners to assess though that said, this is not an easy race to unravel, a scenario which is very much welcomed with the Placepot in mind. My tentative trio consists of BEST BOY BARNEY, THE MYTHOLOGIST and DEFINITE RIDGE.
Favourite factor: Nine renewals had slipped by since the last market leader prevailed before last year’s contest, though five of the previous six gold medallists had scored at a top price of 4/1 before last year’s 11/10 market leader obliged. Seven of the thirteen favourites during the last twelve years have finished in the money (exact science) in the toteplacepot finale.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Wincanton card on Sunday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:
7 runners—Paul Nicholls (25/50 – Profit of 17 points)
3—Neil Mulholland (7/37 – Profit of 25 points)
3—Jamie Snowden (1/9 – loss of 4 points)
2—Harry Fry (3/21 – loss of 2 points)
2—Sue Gardner (0/8)
2—Warren Greatrex (1/4 – loss of 1 point)
2—Fergal O’Brien (0/2)
+ 11 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
32 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
The meeting at Stratford was abandoned
Wetherby: £18.80 – 8 favourites – 4 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced