DONCASTER – APRIL 3
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2015: £159.90 (7 favourites - 2 winners - 2 placed - 3 unplaced)
Sunday's Placepot permutation at Doncaster:
Leg 1 (1.50): 1 (Jan Van Hoof), 3 (Fullon Clarets), 5 (Red Tycoon) & 4 (Mount Tahan)
Leg 2 (2.20): 7 (Raven's Corner) & 5 (Flyboy)
Leg 3 (2.55): 1 (Castle Harbour) & 7 (Philadelphia)
Leg 4 (3.30): 2 (Ballymore Castle), 14 (New Bidder), 20 (Ocean Bidder) & 11 (Roudee)
Leg 5 (4.05): 5 (Encore L'Amour) & 4 (Sandro Botticelli)
Leg 6 (4.40): 1 (Harrison) & 3 (Zzoro)
Suggested stake: 256 bets to 10p stakes
1.50: Richard Fahey has saddled five of the last 11 winners of this opening event and the quintet were all four-year-olds which makes for interesting reading. Richard has declared two horses on this occasion, namely JAN VAN HOOF and FULLON CLARETS, with the latter named raider representing the four-year-old vintage. Joining them in my Placepot permutation in all probability will be RED TYCOON (saddled by David Barron who is in red hot form) and MOUNT TAHAN (fast becoming a seven furlong specialist), especially as four-year-olds have secured six of the last eleven contests.
Favourite factor: Six of the last 12 favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include two winners.
Doncaster record of course winners in the opening event:
2/10--Johnny Cavagin (won this race last year)
1/2--Pull The Plug
2.20: John Gosden has saddled four placed horses in this event since completing his second victory in four years back in 2010, with John not having been represented when his name did not figure in the money in 2011. John saddles his Raven's Pass newcomer RAVEN'S CORNER this time around with connections probably having most to fear from FLYBOY and FISHER GREEN.
Favourite factor: Favourites have won seven of the eleven renewals which have been contested during the last 12 years. Three of the other five market leaders additionally secured toteplacepot positions, the ‘causalities’ having been sent off at 8/15 and 2/1. Three of the four odds on favourites prevailed during the study period.
2.55: John Gosden has declared his Kyllachy newcomer CASTLE HARBOUR with an obvious chance given the trainer's record in the race (see stats above), though connections of beaten favourite PHILDELPHIA and (possibly) GENERAL ALEXANDER will fancy their chances too. John's 8/27 ratio on Town Moor last year sways my attraction towards CASTLE HARBOUR, especially as John's only two runners on the card contest the two divisions of this event.
Favourite factor: This is the second division of the previous event on the card, whereby the same stats apply.
3.20: Four and five-year-olds have won 12 of the last 15 renewals between them (including ten of the last eleven contests--equal share of victories) and vintage representatives expected to figure prominently include BALLYMORE CASTLE, NEW BIDDER, OCEAN SHERIDAN and ROUDEE. Richard Fahey comes to the gig on a hat trick having secured three of the last six renewals, with BALLYMORE CASTLE being the lone stable representative on this occasion. The other three horses mentioned in dispatches race from a top weight of 9-3, as have all eight winners during the last decade. I mentioned five horses in the analysis last year which yielded an Exacta forecast of £118 and a Tricast of £500.
Favourite factor: Six of the last eleven winners have scored at 66/1--40/1--33/1--16/1--16/1--14/1, whilst four of the other six gold medallists were returned at 25/1--12/1--7/1--7/1 during the study period. Seven of the fifteen favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions, statistics which include three winners.
Effect of the draw (latest renewal shown first):
3-16-6-5 (21 ran-good to soft)
1-7-2-16 (18 ran-soft)
6-4-8-10 (18 ran-soft)
15-11-4-3 (22 ran-good)
4-17-8-14 (20 ran-good)
2-16-8-13 (18 ran-good to soft)
2-10-22-21 (20 ran-good to firm)
1-6-4-3 (17 ran-soft)
15-11-6 (15 ran-good)
3-7-2-5 (22 ran-good)
9-10-22-14 (22 ran-good)
22-12-20-15 (21 ran-good to soft)
Doncaster record of course winners in the fourth race:
3.55: Four-year-olds have won four of the last five renewals and vintage representatives are 6/4 against extending their good recent run before the form book is consulted. ENCORE L'AMOUR is preferred to SANDRO BOTTICELLI, though not enough to stop me including both of the junior raiders in my Placepot permutation. Last year's winner WINDSHEAR is the potential fly in the ointment.
Favourite factor: Four of the last eight favourites have prevailed, though only two of the other eight market leaders (in total) additionally secured toteplacepot positions via ten renewals during the last 12 years.
Doncaster record of course winners in the fifth contest:
4.30: Horses carrying a minimum burden of nine stones have secured eight of the 12 available toteplacepot positions thus far, statistics which include three (7/4-7/4-6/1) of the five winners. Given that I am a self confessed ‘anorak’, I will opt for the three relevant horses in the line-up, namely HARRISON, ZZORO and SHAHBAR as potential toteplacepot inclusions at the very least. The trio is listed in order of preference at the overnight stage.
Favourite factor: Two of the five favourites have secured toteplacepot positions to date, statistics which include two (7/4) winners.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Doncaster card on Sunday:
7--David O'Meara (8/58 at Doncaster last season - Stats before Saturday's sport was contested)
5--Mick Easterby (3/28)
5--Brian Ellison (2/34)
5--Richard Fahey (12/90)
4--Michael Dods (1/25)
3--Keith Dalgleish (0/9)
3--Tom Dascombe (0/15)
3--JIm Goldie (2/26)
3--Scott Dixon (1/15)
3--Mark Johnston (5/34)
3--Mark Walford (0/9)
2--George Baker (0/15)
2--David Barron (2/20)
2--Declan Carroll (1/18)
2--Tim Easterby (1/31)
2--James Eustace (0/6)
2--David Evans (1/21)
2--John Gosden (8/27)
2--Dean Ivory (0/12)
2--John O'Shea (0/1)
2--Kevin Ryan (4/39)
2--Derek Shaw (1/7)
2--R Mike Smith (--)
2--Alan Swinbank (0/5)
2--Ronald Thompson (0/2)
+ 39 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
111 declared runners (includes two reserves at the time of writing)