MARKET RASEN – APRIL 9
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £86.50 (6 favourites – 4 winners & 2 unplaced)
Sunday's Placepot permutation at Market Rasen:
Leg 1 (2.00): 2 (Dreamcatcher) & 5 (The Blue Bomber)
Leg 2 (2.30): 1 (Boagrius) & 6 (Royal Village)
Leg 3 (3.00): 1 (Sigurd), 6 (Dubai Celebrity) & 2 (Bonnet’s Vino)
Leg 4 (3.35): 1 (Contre Tous) & 4 (Jackthehourneyman)
Leg 5 (4.10): 2 (Ash Park), 1 (More Buck’s) & 3 (A Little Magic)
Leg 6 (4.45): 4 (Fly Home Harry), 5 (Ballythomas) & 3 (Ganbei)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Sunday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
2.00: I hope you were on my tip for the National yesterday, one of three first named runners/winners on the card. Today is another blank sheet of paper with which to work, hoping that we can build on that success. Because of its popular (central) location in the land, outstanding stats by trainers are only conspicuous by their absence in general terms at Market Rasen, though a few of the handlers that stand up reasonably well are (thankfully) represented today. That said, Dr Richard Newland is on the missing list which is frustrating, as the ‘good Doctor’ has secured five wins at the corresponding meeting during the last five years. Keep those stats ‘handy’ as he will be back to defend his territory this time next year I’ll wager! Upwards and onwards by suggesting that DREAMCATCHING should win this even for Paul Nicholls, with THE BLUE BOMBER failing to adopt the winning habit thus far despite running well on many occasions. It’s arguably worth noting that Paul travels north with three runners here today not having saddled a winner at the corresponding meeting during the (five year) study period, whereas rival-in-chief Nicky Henderson is absent despite having secured three victories, only one of which was returned as a successful favourite.
Favourite factor: Four of the last six favourites have won the opening event during which time, a top priced winner of 9/2 emerged.
2.30: Another race which loos to be a ‘match’ on paper with one of the trainers with reasonable stats at the course (Warren Greatrex) having declared BOAGRIUS with definite claims, despite looking a little over exposed compared to some of his rivals. BOAGRIUS managed to finish second last time out despite ‘whipping round’ at the start whereby if you are contemplating a win bet on the five-year-old, you might hold back the cash until Gavin Sheehan’s mount (hopefully) starts on level terms. If not, connections of ROYAL VILLAGE would probably be the main beneficiaries. The Trevor Hemmings colours will be worn by CAKE DE L’ISLE who appears to be the only other possible winner in the field, though improvement would need to be forthcoming.
Favourite factor: One of the two favourites to date secured a Placepot position by winning the relevant event at odds of 5/4.
3.00: All ten Aintree runners saddled by Jonjo O’Neill were beaten, with only one inmate finishing in the frame. That is one of Jonjo’s poorest Grand National meeting returns in many a year and the trainer will hopefully get back on track here with SIGURD expected to figure prominently, according to the gospel of yours truly. According to my records, Jonjo boasts a record second to none at this venue (31 winners during the last five years) though that said, his strike rate (as suggested in the opening brief on this card) is nothing to write home about. Potential spoilers in the ranks include DUBAI CELEBRITY and course winner BONNET’S VINO.
Favourite factor: Four renewals have slipped by since a joint favourite obliged for supporters of market leaders during which time, only one of the five jollies has finished in the frame.
Record of the course winner in the third race:
1/2—Bonnet’s Vino (good to soft)
3.35: CONTRE TOUS should not be too hard pressed to supplement a recent course and distance victory, especially as ground conditions appeared to have brought about an improvement at the track a fortnight ago. Faster ground might produce an even better effort in which case, the likes of JACKTHEJOURNEYMAN and CHESTNUT BEN (preferred in the order as listed) might be chasing a distant shadow at the business end of proceedings.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 15/8 favourite could only finish third in a four runner (win only) event.
Record of the course winners in the fourth contest on the card:
1/1—Contre Tous (good to soft)
1/5—Chestnut Ben (good to soft)
4.10: There is little (or no) point waffling on about what might happen in this event, especially as there does not appear to be a great deal between the three entries via the form book. Suffice to say that the advice is to make for the bar, having included the trio in your Placepot mix, hoping that the horse with the least units prevails. For the record, my threesome is listed in marginal order of preference as ASH PARK, MORE BUCKS and A LITTLE MAGIC.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 5/2 favourite duly obliged.
4.45: Lost Legend is some way from being the horse he once was, whereby I will offer three others to consider, which are mainly required in case a non-runner (William Money ran at Newcastle yesterday) rears its ugly head which would turn the race into a ‘win only’ contest. FLY HOME HARRY, BALLYTHOMAS and GANBEI are nominated accordingly. I don’t usually suggest placing a Quadpot wager on the last four legs of its ‘big brother’ bet but with two potential win only races to close out the bets, it’s a thought worth contemplation. Check the non-runner board from time to time which should make up your mind, one way or the other.
Favourite factor: The 2/1 favourite won the last leg of our favourite wager twelve months ago. It was only the result of the ‘win only’ contest on the card that boosted the dividend to £86.50. The relevant third race was won by a 9/4 chance which effectively produced a five race Placepot scenario to a £3.25 ‘unit stake’. The £49.90 Quadpot dividend emphasises the point.
Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:
1/1—Fly Home Harry (soft)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Market Rasen card on Sunday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:
5 runners—Jonjo O’Neill (6/30 – Profit of 5 points)
3—Chris Grant (0/4)
3—Paul Nicholls (1/8 – Profit of 1 point)
2—Mick Channon (0/2)
2—Brian Ellison (5/22 – loss of 3 points)
2—Warren Greatrex (3/9 – Profit of 1 point)
2—Alex Hales (1/14 – loss of 5 points)
2—Philip Hobbs (3/15 – loss of 9 points)
2—Philip Kirby (0/21)
2—David Thompson (No previous runners)
2—Noel Wilson (No previous runners)
+ 19 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
46 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Ffos Las: £94.60 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced