FAKENHAM - DECEMBER 18
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2015: £9.80 (8 favourites - 5 winners - 2 placed - 1 unplaced)
Sunday's Placepot permutation at Fakenham:
Leg 1 (12.40): 1 (Owners Day) & 2 (Taurian)
Leg 2 (1.10): 3 (Champagne Chaser) & 1 (Soupy Soups)
Leg 3 (1.45): 1 (Cody Wyoming), 4 (Drumlee Lad) & 5 (Templehills)
Leg 4 (2.20): 3 (Gin And Tonic) & 5 (Jade’s Legend)
Leg 5 (2.50): 1 (Northandsouth), 4 (Running Wolf) & 7 (Tommy The Rascal)
Leg 6 (3.20): 1 (Admiral Kind), 3 (Argante) & 7 (Third Estate)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Sunday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
12.40: One stat stands out from the crowd as Neil Mulholland (OWNERS DAY) is the only represented trainer at the track to have saddled more than one winner this season. Neill’s ratio of 4/6 is also boosted by five year figures of 13/37, results which have yielded 24 points of level stake profits. That said, potential investors should take a look at the favourite stats below before contemplating a wager on Sunday. Punters are a rare breed however whereby many investors simply ignore what has transpired in the past. OWNERS DAY is the first of four stable representatives at Fakenham, with connections probably fearing TAURIAN more than COMELY given the nature of his facile Musselburgh last time out.
Favourite factor: Four of the five favourites have missed out on toteplacepot positions via four renewals to date. A few potential Christmas presents were lost to bookmakers three years ago as both 5/4 joint favourites are still on the missing list. Search parties only managed to locate tearful punters who lamented the fact that a 100/1 chance had scored. The inaugural event was hard on punters too as the 8/11 favourite was turned over, before a 4/7 market leader brought some relief, albeit not to punters on an average wage. The race reverted to type last year when the 11/8 market leader was turned over.
1.10: Six-year-olds have won three of the five contests thus far, having secured five of the 13 available toteplacepot positions. I named the 7/1 winner last year, specifically because Neil Mulholland’s Shaky Gift was the only vintage representative on the day. Neill saddles SOUPY SOUPS this time around, leaving CHAMPAGNE CHASER as the lone six-year-old in the field this time around.
Favourite factor: Four of the six favourites have secured toteplacepot positions to date having gained one gold and three silver medals in their respective events. All four winners have scored at a top price of 7/1 thus far.
Record of the course winners in the second race:
2/4—Shinooki (soft & heavy)
2/3—Daliance (good & soft)
1.45: Four of the five winners carried a minimum burden of 11 stones whereby my short list consists of CODY WYOMING, DRUMLEE LAD and TEMPLEHILLS. The trio is listed in order of preference with the three relevant trainers (Charlie Mann, Johnny Farrell and Nigel Twiston-Davies) having saddled the only winners during the last fortnight in this dead eight event in terms of successful handlers prior to Saturday’s sport.
Favourite factor: In contrast to the previous race on the card relating to market leaders, the first three favourites (3/1-5/2-15/8) had won this race prior to next 9/4 market leader which tipped up. Last year’s 9/4 jolly snared a Placepot position when finishing third behind a couple of 5/1 ‘forecast fillers’.
Record of the course winners in the third event on the card:
1/2—Miami Present (soft & heavy)
1/5—Noble Legend (good to soft)
2.20: Eight of the last nine Placepot positions have been claimed by horses carrying 11-1 or more, statistics which include all three (7/1, 9/2 & 3/1**) winners. GIN AND TONIC snared a Placepot position when returned as the beaten favourite twelve months ago and running off a two pound higher mark on this occasion, Michael Wigham’s course and distance winner should be there or thereabouts. JADE’S LEGEND is expected to offer most resistance at the business end of proceedings, especially as Amy Murphy’s runners are going well just now.
Favourite factor: After the (historical) respite from recent results at the meeting in the last event, we return to crocodile infested waters here as the first three winners had scored at 33/1-16/1-7/1. The radar was still running, trying to locate the relevant market leaders who were on the missing list for some time having finished well and truly out of the respective frames. All that was cast aside two years ago however, when the 3/1 joint favourites finished first and third when securing Placepot positions. Last season’s marker leader finished third behind horses returned at 9/2 & 6/1.
Record of the course winner in the third contest:
2/5—Gin And Tonic (good & soft)
2.50: NORTHANDSOUTH showed a return to form the last day and the chance of the Twiston-Davies raider must be respected in this grade/company. Others to consider include RUNNING WOLF and TOMMY THE RASCAL. I doubt that Neil Mulholland will galvanise Pursuitofhappiness into winning form given that the eight-year-old has been pulled up on four of his last five starts, whilst a break of eight months is unlikely to aid and abet the cause
Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Fakenham card.
Record of the course winner in the fifth race:
1/4—Running Wolf (soft)
3.20: Nicky Henderson (ARGANTE) and Neil Mulholland (ADMIRAL KID) go head to head for the second time on the card and there might not be a great deal between their respective inmates at the jamstick. THIRD ESTATE is added to the overnight mix.
Favourite factor: The first three favourites () won the closing event before last’ year’s renewal scored at 16/1, with the 4/5 market leader snaring a Placepot position when beaten a neck.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Fakenham card on Sunday – followed by their five year ratio at the track + profits/losses accrued:
4 runners—Caroline Bailey (2/27 – loss of 17 points)
4—Neil Mulholland (13/37 – Profit of 24 points)
3—Alex Hales (6/43 – loss of 4 points)
2—Sam England (No runners)
2—Nicky Henderson (13/29 – loss of 3 points)
2—Paul Henderson (4/28 – Profit of 4 points)
2—Neil King (10/64 – Profit of 9 points)
2—Dave Roberts (0/1)
2—Nigel Twiston-Davies (1/15 – loss of 7 points)
2—Tim Vaughan (8/55 – loss of 30 points)
2—Peter Winks (1/7 – Profit of 6 points)
+ 22 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
49 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Lingfield (A/W): £24.80 - 6 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced