KELSO - DECEMBER 4
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2015: £41.10 (7 favourites - 3 winners - 2 placed - 2 unplaced)
Sunday's Placepot permutation at Kelso:
Leg 1 (12.20): 11 (Mount News), 1 (Sam Spanner) & 4 (Dance Of Fire)
Leg 2 (12.50): 4 (Road To Gold), 1 (The Dutchman) & 2 (Aux Ptits Soins)
Leg 3 (1.20): 1 (Kelka) & 5 (Moscanisi)
Leg 4 (1.50): 1 (One For Hocky), 2 (Caius Marcius), 10 (Big McIntosh) & 13 (Pulpitarian)
Leg 5 (2.20): 11 (Millicent Silver), 10 (Harry The Viking) & 8 (Kilbree Chief)
Leg 6 (2.50): 1 (Dynaste)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Sunday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
12.20: Because he is not grabbling so many headlines right now, readers might incorrectly presume that Malcolm Jefferson’s runners have gone off the boil but you might be mistaken for agreeing to that theory. Sure, Malcolm’s winners have dried up a tad, but his ratio since the end of September still reads at the thick end of 35% via 18 winners. Throw in the fact that three of Malcolm’s last four runners have finished second and you might join me in thinking that Malcolm is still ‘bubbling under’ with plenty of intent of lighting the blue touch paper any time now. This would be a good time to get the ball rolling again, with MOUNT NEWS carrying the popular colours of Trevor Hemmings. Connections might have most to fear from the penalised SAM SPINNER and Nick Alexander’s newcomer DANCE OF FIRE.
Favourite factor: Four of the seven market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions via six renewals, statistics which include one successful (8/11) winner.
Record of the course winner in the opening event:
1/1—Mount News (good)
12.50: Three of the four winners have carried a minimum burden of 11-4 with THE DUTCHMAN being the only ‘qualifier’ via the weight trend this time around. Nick Alexander secured a 76/1 double on last year’s card and with ROAD TO GOLD having started that scenario off last year when claiming the previous race on this year’s card, Nick’s seven-year-old can go close to winning twelve months on. AUX PTITS SOINS was a beaten 2/7 favourite at Exeter the last day and connections have spent far more diesel money travelling here to kick start his chasing career.
Favourite factor: Three of the four favourites have claimed Placepot positions, stats which include two odds on (5/6 & 8/11) winners.
Record of the course winner in the second race:
2/3—Road To Gold (good to soft & heavy)
1.20: Five-year-olds have won three of the last five renewals and with the Rebecca Menzies team in good form just now, vintage representative MOSCANISI can figure prominently at the very least. KELKA is the other Malcolm Jefferson representative on the card and this pair should see us safely through the half way stage of our favourite wager.
Favourite factor: Favourites have won four of the six renewals, though the other two market leaders missed out on Placepot positions.
1.50: Lucinda Russell has secured three of the six renewals in which her yard was represented, with BIG MCINTOSH and PULPITARIAN being the two relevant inmates on this occasion. Their chances do not leap off the page but Lucinda has pulled rabbits out of hundreds of hats down the years so much so, that I will include her two runners alongside the Nicky Richards pair at the top of the handicap, namely ONE FOR HOCKY and CAIUS MARCIUS.
Favourite factor: Six of the nine market leaders have finished in the frame (exact science) via seven renewals during which time, two (15/8 & 7/4) favourites have prevailed.
Record of the course winner in the fourth event on the card:
1/5—One For Hocky (soft)
2/2—Mwaleshi (good to soft & soft)
1/1—Sudski Star (soft)
3/19—Surprise Vendor (good, good to soft & soft)
1/11—Cool Baranca (good to soft)
5/22—Endeavour (2 x good – 2 x good to soft + good to firm)
2.20: Five of the seven winners have carried 10-11 or less, whereby MILLICENT SILVER, HARRY THE VIKING and KILBREE CHIEF are my chosen trio against the other ten contenders. HARRY THE VIKING represents Sandy Thomson who has saddled the last two winners of the race, albeit with the same horse. MILLICENT SILVER represents Nigel Twiston-Davies who sends just the one runner up on Sunday, whilst Tom Scudamore is an eye catching booking for KILBREE CHIEF, Tom having ridden seven winners for Lucinda Russell in recent seasons.
Favourite factor: Two (7/4 & 11/4**) favourites have won via seven contests thus far, whilst three of the eight market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.
Record of the course winner in the fifth event:
2/2—Royale Knight (good to firm & good to soft)
3/18—Scotswell (3 x good)
2.50: Tom Scudamore’s main reason for travelling north on Sunday is to ride DYNASTE who surely retains enough class to make these rivals suffer from the relentless gallop that David Pipe’s old warrior will seek to maintain. Others such as ARIAL and JET MASTER will cope for circuit or so I guess, but I fully expect DYNASTE to revert back to winning ways in this ‘veteran’s grade’.
Favourite factor: The Placepot finale is a new race on the Kelso card.
Record of the course winner in the sixth race:
2/8—Jet Master (good & good to soft)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Kelso card on Sunday – followed by their five year stats at the venue + level stake profits/losses accrued:
7 runners—Lucinda Russell (27/253 – loss of 99 points to level stakes)
5—Dianne Sayer (9/96 – loss of 31 points)
5—Sue Smith (8/64 – loss of 3 points)
4—Nick Alexander (23/164 – Profit of 18 points)
4—Nicky Richards (24/107 – Profit of 9 points)
3—Maurice Barnes (3/76 – loss of 51 points)
3—Stuart Coltherd (10/88 – loss of 30 points)
3—Noel C Kelly (1/10 – loss of 2 points)
2—Jennie Candlish (2/2 – Profit of 3 points)
2—Rose Dobbin (1/9 – loss of 2 points)
2—Harriet Graham (3/48 – loss of 30 points)
2—Micky Hammond (4/27 – loss of 5 points)
2—Malcolm Jefferson (10/51 – loss of 3 points)
2—Rebecca Menzies (1/20 – loss of 12 points)
2—Dr Richard Newland (2/3 – Profit of 7 points)
2—Paul Nicholls (4/9 – Profit of 1 point)
2—Lucy Normile (0/40)
2—Jedd O’Keeffe (2/5 – Profit of 1 point)
2—Sandy Thomson (7/64 – loss of 23 points)
2—Venetia Williams (1/5 – Profit of 7 points)
+ 18 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
76 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Huntingdon – 6 favourites – 39.20 – 3 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced