MARKET RASEN – FEBRUARY 19
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £20.80 (6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced)
Sunday's Placepot permutation at Market Rasen:
Leg 1 (2.00): 3 (Queen Odessa) & 1 (All My Love)
Leg 2 (2.30): 2 (One Big Love), 1 (Mo Chailin) & 4 (Martha McCandles)
Leg 3 (3.00): 5 (Caius Mercius), 7 (Castafiore) & 2 (Dream Berry)
Leg 4 (3.30): 1 (Chidswell), 2 (Speredek) & 3 (Holly Bush Henry)
Leg 5 (4.00): 3 (Fields Of Glory) & 4 (Asuncion)
Leg 6 (4.30): 4 (The Mythologist) & 2 (Monderon)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Sunday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
2.00: Market Rasen has always been a difficult track to assess and today’s card in no different to normal. No trainer saddles more than two runners on the card, whilst the venue seldom points to trainers boasting great stats at the venue. No current trainer has saddled more than two winners at this corresponding meeting during the last five years though to be entirely fair, favourites have won half of the races during the period. Upwards and onward in positive mode by suggesting that the positive favourite stats should continue with QUEEN ODESSA having been declared. Harry Fry is back among the winners whereby the six-year-old should not have too much trouble in coping with TREACKLE TART and ALL MY LOVE. Pam Sly’s latter named raider was still going well when tipping up at Wetherby when the taps had been turned on and it remains to be seen if she has mentally recovered from that tumble.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural (8/15) favourite duly obliged.
2.30: MARTHA MCCANDLES was entering my ‘last chance saloon’ when scoring at Exeter the last day and remaining in contests confined to mares seems to be a sensible move for the six-year-old (Alan King) representative for the time being. Harry Fry could (in theory) notch a double via the first two events on the card (his only runners) with ONE BIG LOVE having been offered a realistic target in this grade/company. That said, Donald McCain (MO CHAILIN) boasts a 25% strike during the last fortnight via seven winners whereby the top weight is not easily cast aside.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 9/4 market leader found one too good when claiming a Placepot position.
3.00: Nicky Richards has won with six of his last seventeen runners with each gold medallist having been sent off as the market leader in its respective event. Whether CAIUS MARCIUS is supported into favouritism is doubtful but either way, Nicky’s three time winner looks the safest option here, especially from a Placepot perspective having finished in the frame (exact science) six times via eight assignments thus far. Barring the way here are the recent Ludlow winner CASTAFIORE and (possibly) Jonjo’s course and distance winner DREAM BERRY.
Favourite factor: Last year’s 7/4 favourite was the only horse which failed to complete the course.
Record of the course winner in the third event on the card:
1/1—Dream Berry (soft)
3.30: Friday’s Sandown winner SPEREDEK remains on course to run here at the time of writing though a penalty for that success will make life tough for Nigel Hawke’s raider, though two winners and a silver medallist have emerged from the yard’s last four runners. CHIDSWELL is the other Nicky Richards runner on the card and with the Sedgefield winner have had an additional five days to recover from his exertions compared to Speredek, Craig Nicol’s mount is taken to follow up successfully. HOLLY BUSH HENRY won four of his first six races but the same number of assignments have subsequently been contested without adding to the score. As short as even money as I write this column, those odds fail to attract from a value for money perspective. If Speredek is withdrawn late doors, the race will become a ‘win only’ event which demands that I include all three runners in my Placepot mix.
Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Market Rasen card.
4.00: As far as English trainers are concerned, Tim Vaughan stands in third place in supplying Richard Johnson with the winners this season (12 in total) and the pair team up in the last two races on the card. FIELDS OF GLORY is the relevant entry here and at around the even money mark, the seven-year-old King’s Best raider makes more appeal from a win perspective than Holy Bush Henry in the previous race at around the same price. From a Placepot perspective however, this is already a ‘win only’ event whereby course and distance winner ASUNCION is added into the equation.
Favourite factor: One of the two market leaders claimed a Placepot position by winning the inaugural event at odds of 6/4. Last year’s 11/8 favourite was beaten in a ‘win only’ contest.
Record of the course winners in the third event on the card:
3/10—Make Me A Fortune (good – good to soft – soft)
4.30: All five winners to date have carried 10-10 with THE MYTHOLOGIST representing the Vaughan Johnson bandwagon hailing from the ‘superior’ sector of the handicap. MONDERON represents Fergal O’Brien who boasts a 23% record at the track this season via six winners, statistics which have yielded 27 points of level stake profit.
Favourite factor: Only two of the six favourites have finished in the frame via five renewals, whist we still await the first success market leader from a win perspective.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Market Rasen card on Sunday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:
2 runners each on Sunday:
Tony Carroll (0/2)
Harry Fry (2/5 – Profit of 2 points)
Tom Gretton (2/6 – Profit of 24 points)
Alan King (0/14)
Charlie Longsdon (4/18 – Profit of 1 point)
Nicky Richards (2/11 – Loss of 5 points)
Sue Smith (0/12)
Tim Vaughan (1/21 – loss of 15 points)
+ 19 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
35 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Ffos Las: £49.10 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 2 unplaced