FONTWELL – FEBRUARY 26
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £59.80 (6 favourites: 4 winners & 2 unplaced)
Sunday's Placepot permutation at Fontwell:
Leg 1 (2.00): 1 (As De Mee), 2 (Kilcrea Vale), 4 (Winner Massagot) & 3 (Rock Gone)
Leg 2 (2.30): 7 (The Geegeez Geegee), 2 (Rothman) & 1 (King Of Glory)
Leg 3 (3.00): 2 (Lil Rockerfeller) & 5 (Different Gravey)
Leg 4 (3.30): 2 (Sir Anthony Browne) & 1 (Peak To Peak)
Leg 5 (4.00): 1 (Mon Perrain) & 2 (According To Trev)
Leg 6 (4.30): 5 (Greyed A), 4 (Ding Ding) & 8 (Come On Laurie)
Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Sunday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
2.00: Paul Nicholls boasts stats of 8/19 here at Fontwell this season and the stable will be confident of going close here having declared AS DE MEE (just an 11/2 chance when beaten at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day) in this ‘win only’ event. I’m not entirely sure that the trip back in distance will suit ideally, but as a six time winner (on good to soft here on one occasion), AS DE MEE has his sort of ground on which to figure prominently. Official figures suggest that KILCREA VALE should be feared most (Nicky Henderson boasts a 27% strike rate during the last five years), though the other pair cannot be entirely be ruled out of the equation. Accordingly, I am adding all four runners in my Placepot mix, especially as plenty of the other races only require two selections, perhaps just one in the fifth contest on the card if you wish to cut the permutation in half.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 1/5 (Paul Nicholls trained) favourite duly obliged.
Record of the course winner in the opening event:
1/1—As De Mee (good to soft)
2.30: Seven-year-olds lead the eight-year-olds 3-2 via six contests to date and my loyalty should sway me towards eight-year-old THE GEEGEEZ GEEGEE who was a decent winner over a shorter trip last time out. Harry Cobden takes the ride aboard Anthony Honeyball’s raider who is a good few pounds ‘well in’ on his timber form. Course and distance winner ROTHMAN is considered the main threat, though KING OF GLORY takes his chance here having been denied a run at Huntington the other day when ‘Doris’ turned up to halt proceedings.
Favourite factor: Five of the six market leaders have claimed Placepot positions, statistics which include three (5/2-2/1-5/2) winners.
Record of the course winners in the second race on the card:
1/1—The Geegeez Geegee (soft)
3.00: LIL ROCKERFELLER returns to defend his crown having scored by nine lengths under yielding conditions twelve months ago. DIFFERENT GRAVEY has to be regarded as the chief threat having won four of his six assignments over timer to date, conveniently ignoring a poor effort over the bigger obstacles last time out, albeit in a warm contest. Stable companion L’AMI SERGE was only a 13/8 chance to beat The New One at Haydock last time out though that said, the official ratings here suggests that Daryl Jacob’s mount will probably have to post a personal best to have a chance of scoring in this Grade 2 event.
Favourite factor: Ten of the seventeen market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions thus far, statistics which include seven winners. The biggest priced winner during the study period was returned at just 8/1, save for a 16/1 gold medallist which scored three years ago.
Record of the course winners in the third contest:
1/1—Lil Rockerfeller (good to soft)
1/1—Third Intention (good to soft)
3.30: I’m never quite sure why this type of event is classed as a 'new race' (as it is in the trade press) simply because the distance has changed. The changes often occur via a slight change in trip or variation in terms and conditions but I’m leaving the favourite factor stats as they are which I hope meets with your approval. Gary Moore saddled the winner of the ‘new event’ last year if you want to view the race that way and in CRYSTAL LAD, Gary can rightfully claim this his raider boasts each way claims twelve months on. More likely winners from my viewpoint however include SIR ANTHONY BROWNE and PEAK TO PEAK.
Favourite factor: Seven market leaders have scored during the last 17 years alongside a joint favourite, whilst the biggest priced winner was returned at 4/1. Thirteen of the twenty ‘jollies’ have finished in the frame, repeating the point that these stats were produced from the same race, albeit over the longer trip in previous years.
Record of the course winners in the fourth race:
1/1—Peak To Peak (soft)
4.00: 11 ‘household handlers’ have won this Hunter Chase event during the last 13 years, statistics which include eight of the last nine contests which is worth noting, as none of the seven runners in 2013 hailed from ‘professional‘ ranks. Paul Nicholls hopes to maintain that trend here having declared MON PERRAIN with seemingly only having ACCORDING TO TREV to beat but even then, Alan Hill’s six time winner has not scored for well over two years now during which time, the Accordion raider has contested eleven races. MON PERRAIN is not exactly ‘bombproof’ but the other three runners fail to light the blue touch paper I’m afraid.
Favourite factor: 10 of the 15 favourites have won this event, whilst 13 of the 17 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions. Favourites come into the contest on a seven timer on this occasion.
4.30: The handicapper will be hoping that he has at last got to grips with Sheena West’s three time Plumpton winner DING DING and that might be the case from a win perspective but that said, his Placepot credentials demand his inclusion for my viewpoint. GREYED A and COME ON LAURIE are marginally preferred to Capsis Desbois as the main dangers to Ding Ding.
Favourite factor: The Placepot finale is a new race on the Fontwell card.
Record of the course winners in the lucky last:
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Fontwell card on Sunday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:
4 runners—Nicky Henderson (1/7 – loss of 4 points)
4—Gary Moore (8/54 – loss of 24 points)
4—Paul Nicholls (8/19 – Profit of 13 points)
4—Colin Tizzard (3/24 – loss of 13 points)
2—Paul Cowley (No previous runners this season)
2—Nick Gifford (1/11 – loss of 5 points)
2—Chris Gordon (4/38 – loss of 8 points)
2—Alan King (4/15 – Profit of 1 point)
2—Dr Richard Newland (2/6 – Profit of 5 points)
2—Oliver Sherwood (0/10)
2—Nick Williams (0/2)
+ 39 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
56 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Southwell: £51,326.60 – 7 favourites – No winners – 2 placed – 5 unplaced