MUSSELBURGH – FEBRUARY 5
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2015: £7.80 (6 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced)
Sunday's Placepot permutation at Musselburgh:
Leg 1 (1.40): 1 (Burbank) & 3 (Tree Of Liberty)
Leg 2 (2.10): 2 (Frodon) & 4 (Holly Bush Henry)
Leg 3 (2.40): 2 (High Secret) & 1 (Peter The Mayo Man)
Leg 4 (3.10): 6 (Fair Loch), 5 (Indian Temple) & 4 (Witness In Court)
Leg 5 (3.40): 5 (Overland Flyer), 3 (Soupy Soups) & 2 (Ballycrystal)
Leg 6 (4.10): 11 (Arthurs Secret), 1 (Cup Final) & 5 (Wotzizname)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
1.40: I am praying that a non-runner does not rear its ugly head here, a scenario which would turn the race into a ‘win only’ contest which would ensure that tens of thousands of Placepot tickets would go up in smoke. The terms and conditions of the contest suggest that BURBANK will lead home TREE OF LIBERTY and WINNING TRY.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 3/10 favourite duly obliged.
2.10: Eight-year-olds would have been coming to this gig on a five-timer but alas, no trainer appears to have been wise to the ‘edge’. Upwards and onward in positive mode by suggesting that FRODON can make up for tipping up in the ‘Kauto Star’ event for novices on the Boxing Day card at Kempton. Brian Ellison (APERTIX) had saddled four of his last seven runners to winning effect at the time of writing, whilst course winner HOLLY BUSH HENRY can also ensure that FRODON will have to work for his victory if successful in this ‘win only’ contest.
Favourite factor: Four favourites have won via eight renewals of late, whilst six of the nine market leaders have secured Placepot positions.
Course record of the course winner in the second race:
1/1—Holly Bush Henry (soft)
2.40: HIGH SECRET in the third of six runners on the card from the Paul Nicholls yard which makes for interesting reading, as Paul has only saddled ten horses here during the last five years, three of which have won. HIGH SECRET won on debut at Taunton, a circuit not unlike Musselburgh which will be in his favour, especially on half decent ground. That said, PETER THE MAYO MAN more than deserves his place in the line up, so much so that HIGH SECRET might have to be well above average to stop Neil Mulholland’s representative notching a four-timer. Lough Derg Spirit looks booked for third spot from my viewpoint.
Favourite factor: One of the two favourites thus far has finished in the frame without winning the respective contest.
3.10: Donald McCain (WITNESS IN COURT) has won two of the last five renewals in which the stable was represented and his six time winner can rarely be discounted albeit at ten years of age, Will Kennedy’s mount is hardly improving now. That said, I respect his Placepot chance, with the two horses below Donald’s raider in the handicap (FAIR LOCH and INDIAN TEMPLE) making more appeal from a win perspective.
Favourite factor: Two of the four market leaders have secured Placepot positions (no winners).
Course record of the course winner in the fourth race on the card:
1/5—Witness In Court (soft)
1/1—Indian Temple (good to soft)
3.40: This is a quality Class 2 (Albert Bartlett) trail and no mistake, especially with OVERLAND FLER having been declared. If there is one runner on the card that could post a huge leap into a prominent profile for the Cheltenham Festival, OVERLAND FLYER could be the horse in questing, the Paul Nicholls raider having won by 22 lengths on debut at Taunton on good ground last month. SOUPY SOUPS and BALLYCRYSTAL might have more potential for improvement than Ami Desbois, albeit the seven-year-old deserves his chance at this level.
Favourite factor: Three of the five favourites have snared Placepot positions via four renewals. There are two winning favourites to report, albeit they were accompanied by two gold medallists which were returned at 22/1 & 10/1.
4.10: CUP FINAL returns to defend his crown with Nicky Henderson having trained both winners of this event to date. Nicky’s Presenting gelding has to carry 22 pounds more for running off a 14 spot higher mark. Those negative stats might just tip the scales against Nico de Boinville’s mount from winning, though I fully expect CUP FINAL to figure prominently, with a Placepot position there for the taking. WOTZIZNAME and ARTHURS SECRET are the alternative each way options to consider.
Favourite factor: Both (11/4 & 11/8) market leaders have obliged thus far.
Course record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:
1/1—Cup Final (soft)
1/1—Clandaw Kaempfer (good)
1/4—Arthurs Secret (good)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Musselburgh card on Sunday – followed by their five year ratio at the track + profits/losses accrued:
6 runners—Paul Nicholls (3/10 – loss of 3 points)
5—Brian Ellison (9/115 – loss of 71 points)
4—Nicky Henderson (5/21 – loss of 8 points)
3—Graeme McPherson (1/4 – slight loss)
3—Neil Mulholland (No runners)
2—Patrick Holmes (0/21)
2—Philip Kirby (4/30 – Slight Profit)
2—Charlie Longsdon (2/15 – loss of 2 pointys)
2—Donald McCain (32/136 – Profit of 37 points)
2—Lucinda Russell (26/235 – loss of 63 points)
2—Sandy Thomson (10/45 – Profit of 36 points)
+ 24 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
47 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Taunton: No corresponding meeting