CHELTENHAM - JANUARY 1
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £851.30 (7 favourites - 3 winners & 4 unplaced)
Sunday's Placepot permutation at Cheltenham:
Leg 1 (12.15): 3 (Baden), 10 (Poetic Rhythm) & 6 (Sumkindofking)
Leg 2 (12.50): 14 (Chase The Spud), 11 (Doctor Harper) & 3 (Vyta Du Roc)
Leg 3 (1.25): 4 (Briery Belle), 3 (Clan Des Obeaux) & 1 (O O Seven)
Leg 4 (2.00): 11 (Thomas Brown), 7 (Quite By Chance) & 9 (As De Mee)
Leg 5 (2.35): 12 (Call To Order) & 7 (Rocklander)
Leg 6 (3.10): 8 (Cole Harden), 9 (L’Ami Serge) & 7 (Protek Des Flos)
Suggested stake: 486 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Sunday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
12.15: Six-year-olds have claimed 13 of the 14 available toteplacepot positions to date, statistics which include four of the five winners at 3/1 - 7/2** - 9/2 - 5/1. Only three trainers Nicky Henderson (BADEN), Fergal O’Brien (POETIC RHYTHM) and Tom George (SUMKINDOFKING) are live to the stats this time around. The trio is listed in marginal order of preference at the overnight stage.
Favourite factor: Three of the six favourites (including two winners) have secured toteplacepot positions thus far.
Record of the course winners in the opening event:
1/2—Poetic Rhythm (soft)
12.50: Nine-year-olds have secured four of the last five renewals, statistics which led me to include the 2015 winner at 25/1 in my short list for the contest, following up twelve months ago with a 4/1 chance. Three vintage representatives have been declared this time around, two of which have been declared by Fergal O’Brien (on the ball again). Fergal’s pair are listed in order of preference as CHASE THE SPUD and TROIKA STEPPES, with DOCTOR HARPER representing David Pipe. If the vintage is to be denied, VUYTA DU ROC could prove to be the joker in the pack.
Favourite factor: Nine of the fourteen winners to date have started at odds of 8/1 or less. 10 of the 16 favourites have finished in the frame, statistics which include two winners.
Record of the course winners in the second race:
1/3—Vyta Du Roc (soft)
2/7—Lamb Or Cod (2 x good)
2/17—Any Currency (2 x good to soft)
1/5—A Good Skin (good)
1/4—Troika Steppes (good)
1.25: Potentially softening ground could make BRIERY BELLE the value for money call in a fascinating renewal of this Grade 2 Novice 'Dipper' Chase. Henry Daly has his team in great form with four of his last ten runners having won, stats which include a 40/1 gold medallist. I’m aware that such conditions should not prove to be too much of a problem for O O SEVEN and CLAN DES OBEAUX though at the odds on offer, BRIERY BELLE is taken to outrun her price.
Favourite factor: Six favourites have prevailed via thirteen renewals, whilst the biggest starting price returned about the winner thus far was the 2011 winner at odds of 16/1. Five of the seven beaten favourites finished out of the frame though in all fairness, one of those events was a ‘win only’ contest.
Record of the course winners in the ‘Dipper Chase’:
1/3—O O Soft (soft)
3/8—Whisper (2 x good to soft + good)
1/3—Briery Belle (good)
2.00: 12 of the 15 winners have carried weights of 11-4 or less, whilst eight-year-olds have won three of the last six renewals. THOMAS BROWN and QUITE BY CHANCE are the only horses in the field with ticks in both of the trend boxes, whereby this pair are the first horses on the team sheet. The last three victories gained by AS DE MEE have been recorded on good to soft ground and by the time that the flag falls in the fourth race, conditions could be in his favour.
Favourite factor: Nine of the seventeen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions (five winners).
Record of the course winners in the fourth contest:
2/10—Village Vic (soft & heavy)
1/2—Shantou Flyer (good)
1/4—Thomas Brown (soft)
2/4—Thomas Crapper (good & good to soft)
2.35: Seven-year-olds have won six of the last eleven contests, with the first named runner in my list in 2015 (ROLLING MAUL) scoring at 10/1, who was the only vintage representative in the field! Seven of the last nine winners have carried a maximum weight of 10-13, statistics which also bring CALL TO ORDER and ROCKLANDER into the overnight equation. This pair could dominate if the rain steers clear of Prestbury Park overnight and even if the wet stuff does arrive on cue, their respective handicap marks still give them chances, especially from Placepot perspectives.
Favourite factor: Only five market leaders have finished in the frame via fourteen contests (two winners) though that said, 30/40 available toteplacepot positions were filled by horses returned at 12/1 or less.
Record of the course winners in the fifth event:
2/5—Fingal Bay (good & good to soft)
1/6—Rolling Maul (soft)
1/2—Call To Order (soft)
3.10: Nicky Henderson has saddled winners in three of the last five contests in which the trainer was represented and Nicky saddles both L’AMI SERGE and PROTEK DES FLOS in an attempt to improve the ratio. Warren Greatrex had already waxed lyrical about the chance of COLE HARDEN before three of his last five runners won at 8/1, 7/1 & 5/1. Happy New Year!
Favourite factor: Four favourites have obliged via eleven renewals during the last twelve years. Nine of the eleven winners scored at a top price of 7/1.
Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:
1/3—Camping Ground (heavy)
3/5—Old Guard (good – good to soft - soft)
1/1—Protek Des Flos (heavy)
1/6—Cole Harden (good)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Cheltenham card on Sunday – followed by this season’s ratio at the track + profits/losses accrued:
8—runners—Nicky Henderson (3/27 – loss of 12 points)
7—Paul Nicholls (6/31 – Slight profit)
5—Harry Fry (1/9 – loss of 3 points)
5—Fergal O’Brien (2/13 – Profit of 8 points)
4—Jonjo O’Neill (3/19 – Profit of 30 profits)
4—Colin Tizzard (5/34 – Profit of 15 points)
4—Nigel Twiston-Davies (4/26 – loss of 13 points)
4—Nick Williams (0/1)
3—Rebecca Curtis (0/8)
3—Tom George (2/15 – loss of 2 points)
3—Philip Hobbs (3/23 – loss of 7 points)
3—Martin Keighley (0/14)
2—Peter Bowen (0/2)
2—Henry Daly (1/7 – loss of 3 points)
2—Warren Greatrex (0/5)
2—Neil King (No runners)
+ 22 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
83 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Catterick: £37.10 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 4 placed – 1 unplaced
Exeter: £36.80 – 7 favourites – 5 winners & 2 unplaced
Fakenham: £17.60 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced
Musselburgh: 72.40 – 6 favourites – 4 winners & 2 unplaced
Southwell (A/W): £105.80 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced