Placepot pointers – Sunday July 10

STRATFORD - JULY 10

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2015: £21.60 (7 favourites - No winners - 3 placed - 4 unplaced)

 

Sunday's Placepot permutation at Stratford: 

Leg 1 (2.20): 11 (Itsamysterytome), 4 (invocation) & 7 (Schoolboy Error)

Leg 2 (2.50): 11 (Louise Phillipe) & 8 (Present Accepted)

Leg 3 (3.25): 3 (Mighty Missile), 2 (Perspicace) & 6 (I'dliketheoption)

Leg 4 (4.00): 10 (Mount Versuvius) & 11 (Accessallareas)

Leg 5 (4.30): 2 (Fair Dilemma) & 7 (Walden Prince)

Leg 6 (5.05): 4 (Silent Account), 5 (Stamp Your Feet) & 1 (Avispa)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Sunday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page:

 

2.20: The race planners have had their fun and games again of late, with this being the first NH fixture since last Tuesday. Ten meetings had been staged in as many days previously which makes this recent gap all the more bizarre! Upward and onward in positive mode however by informing that Jamie Osborne (SCHOOLBOY ERROR) saddles only his ninth NH contender during the last five years, with the relevant (positive) stats listed at the foot of this column. SCHOOLBOY ERROR might only have won one of his fourteen races on the level, but seven finishes 'in the three' suggests that Jamie's three-year-old can become competitive at this level over timber.  Connections probably have most to fear from ITSAMYSTERYTOME, INVOCATION and TRESPASSED in a fascinating opening event.

Favourite factor: Nine of the twelve favourites have finished in the frame to date (four winners) but with two 33/1 winners recorded in the last eleven years alongside the 20/1 gold medallist five years ago, readers are advised to tread carefully.  These are the same words as written seven years ago when the 4/11 market leader could only scrape into the frame in third place.

2.50: LOUISE PHILLIPE was returned as the beaten favourite in this event last year but to be fair to Linda Blackford's raider, the nine-year-old was beaten less than three lengths, with the third horse 28 lengths adrift.  PRESENT ACCEPTED got off the mark at the twelfth time of asking at Ffos Las and Rod Millman should be congratulated for finding a race which is there for the taking.  TARA MAC and BRAVE ENCOUNTER are others to consider.

Favourite factor:  Last year's inaugural 6/4 favourite snared a Placepot position by finishing second in a 'short field' contest.  New readers might want to learn that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses qualify from each way and Placepot perspectives.

Record of course winners in the second race:

1/6--Adios Alonso (good)

1/1--Breezy Kin (good to soft)

1/5--Mr Robinson (good to firm)

3.25: Plenty of leading trainers have entered runners for this Class 3 event but with Warren Greatrex boasting a 3/7 ratio at the track this season, his MIGHTY MISSILE is the call, especially as the five-year-old is a winner of two of his last seven races. Two fellow five-year-old's are named as the main threats, namely PERSPICACE and I'DLIKETHEOPTION.  I cannot envisage that all three-five-year-olds could finish out of the frame.  Four-year-old BOTHERLY COMPANY is nominated as the overnight reserve.

Favourite factor: Last year's inaugural 10/3 market leader finished out with the washing.

Record of course winners in the third event on the card:

1/1--Kapstadt (good)

1/3--Mighty Missile (good)

1/3--Honey Pound (good)

1/2--Sir Stylan (good)

1/1--Deauville Dancer (soft)

4.00: Trainer Paul Henderson has targeted this meeting successfully in the past and there is plenty to recommend his eight-year-old representative MOUNT VESUVIUS in this grade/company.  23 races have passed since Paul's Spartacus gelding secured successive victories whereby 'first time up' might be the best chance to catch Nick Schofield's mount, certainly from a value for money perspective.  Potential party-poopers in the frame include ACCESSALLAREAS and FAITH JACARO.

Favourite factor: All three favourites (via two renewals) had finished out with the washing before the 7/4 market leader snared the silver medal two year's ago.  The race reverted to type last year when the 11/4 favourite finished out of the frame.

Record of course winners in the fourth contest:

1/2--Spock (good)

1/4--Mount Vesuvius (good)

4.30: Six of the seven winners have carried a maximum burden of eleven stones. FAIR DILEMMA has secured gold and silver medals in the race to date, albeit last year's third placed effort was not good enough to claim a Placepot position, the 10/3 joint favourite having contested a 'short field' race on the card.  There must be a chance that Chris Gordon's raider can put back to back victories together for the third time in his career, with WALDEN PRINCE and hat trick seeker SHARP RISE expected to offer most resistance at the business end of proceedings.  FAIR DILEMMA sits two pounds above the 'superior' weight barrier but every now and then my self confessed 'anorak tendencies' release their grip from what passes as a brain.

Favourite factor: The eight favourites (via seven renewals) to date have secured four gold medals and two of the silver variety, with the other pair of market leaders missing out on Placepot positions.

Record of course winners in the penultimate leg of the Placepot:

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2/4--Fair Dilemma (good & good to soft)

2/4--Roman Flight (2 x good)

5.05:  Five-year-olds have won six of the last nine renewals of the toteplacepot finale, with Des Donovan (SILENT ACCOUNT) seemingly the only trainer among those involved at the five day stage to take the fact into account.  That said, SILENT ACCOUNT has been beaten by an aggregate of 256 lengths via his last three outings whereby confidence is at an all time low.  More logical winners include STAMP YOUR FEET and AVISPA.

Favourite factor:  Seven of the ten favourites have secured toteplacepot positions via nine renewals, statistics which include six winners.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Stratford card on Sunday:

3--Sarah-Jayne Davies (0/3 at Stratford this season)

3--Alan King (1/2 - winner at 5/1)

3--David Pipe (0/4)

3--Tim Vaughan (1/3 - winner at 11/4)

3--Ian Williams (1/8 - winner at 9/4*)

2--David Bridgwater (2/8 - winners at 5/1 & 4/1)

2--Lady Susan Brooke (---)

2--Des Donovan (---)

2--Jonathan Geake (---)

2--Tom George (1/4 - winner at 16/1)

2--Warren Greatrex (3/7 - winners at 2/1-7/4*-11/10*)

2--Diana Grissell (---)

2--Polly Gundry (1/2 - winner at 10/1)

2--Paul Henderson (0/2)

2--Martin Hill (---)

2--Martin Keighley (0/3)

2--Bernard Llewellyn (---)

2--Graeme McPherson (0/4)

2--Richard Woollacott (---)

+ 46 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

89 declared runners

 

General overview - corresponding Placepot dividends at the other meetings from last year:

Southwell (NH) - £270.10 - 8 favourites - 3 winners - 2 placed - 3 unplaced

Perth: £842.20 - 6 favourites - 1 winner - 1 unplaced - 4 unplaced

 

Stratford overview - 5 year NH record of 'flat trainers' who have runners declared:

3/8--Jamie Osborne

1/12--Michael Bell

 

 

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