STRATFORD - JULY 16
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £72.60 (8 favourites - 3 winners - 2 placed - 3 unplaced)
Sunday's Placepot permutation at Stratford:
Leg 1 (2.10): 7 (The Raven Master) & 9 (Lucky Esteem)
Leg 2 (2.40): 4 (Zama Zama), 8 (Raising Hope) & 6 (Shaiyzar)
Leg 3 (3.15): 4 (Free Stone Hill), 1 (St Saviour) & 3 (Our Three Sons)
Leg 4 (3.50): 2 (Bestwork), 1 (In On The Act) & 9 (Accessallareas)
Leg 5 (4.20): 6 (Play The Ace), 2 (Set List) & 3 (Danandy)
Leg 6 (4.55): 1 (Dear Sir) & 5 (Rebel Yeats)
Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Sunday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page:
2.10: The race planners have had their fun and games again of late, with this being the first NH fixture since last Tuesday. Umpteen meetings had been staged during the previous fortnight which makes this recent gap all the more bizarre! Upward and onward in positive mode however by suggesting that THE RAVEN MASTER has claims here, despite only reaching a moderate mark of 65 on the level. The fact that Dan Skelton has taken possession of Michael Bell’s Raven’s Pass colt says volumes about his potential I guess and with Dan boasting a 40% strike rate via his last six winners (what’s new), Harry’s mount is the first name on the team sheet. MAURICIO might find the ground plenty quick enough after winning on soft ground in Ireland, whilst LUCKY ESTEEM has his first run for Neil Mulholland having left Mark Johnston’s yard.
Favourite factor: Nine of the thirteen favourites have finished in the frame to date (four winners) but with two 33/1 winners recorded in the last twelve years alongside the 20/1 gold medallist six years ago, readers are advised to tread carefully. These are the same words as written eight years ago when the 4/11 market leader could only scrape into the frame in third place.
2.40: Last year’s 7/1 winner was described by yours truly as having been well placed in a race which was there for the taking; and so it proved. Whether we shall be so fortunate this time around is another matter entirely, though course winner ZAMA ZAMA looks to offer some value for money at around the 10/1 mark at the overnight stage. Trainer Evan Williams has saddled more winners at this meeting over the last five years than any other handler for good measure. Others for the Placepot mix include RAISING HOPE and SHAIYZAR.
Favourite factor: The inaugural 6/4 favourite snared a Placepot position by finishing second in a 'short field' contest two years ago. Two of the three 7/1 co favourites followed suit last year, stats which included the winner of the sixteen runner contest. New readers might want to learn that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses qualify from each way and Placepot perspectives.
Record of course winners in the second race:
2/4—Zama Zama (2 x good)
2/2—Sgt Bull Berry (2 x good)
3.15: The danger of taking too much for granted here is the worry of a non runner encroaching into the equation which would bring about a ‘win only’ scenario. That said, FREE STONE HILL, ST SAVIOUR and OUR THREE SONS (the three course winners) should see us safely through to the halfway stage, whatever occurs pre flag fall.
Favourite factor: One of the two favourites thus far snared a Placepot position without winning its respective event.
Record of the course winners in the third contest on the card:
1/2—St Saviour (good)
1/2—Our Three Sons (good)
1/1—Free Stone Hill (good)
3.50: ACCESSALLAREAS was mentioned as one of the potential dangers when winning this event at 11/1 twelve months ago. The twelve-year-old might be hard pushed to score again though that said, a Placepot position cannot be ruled out of the equation. Arguably, more logical winners include BESTWORK and another Evan Williams runner on the card, namely IN ON THE ACT.
Favourite factor: All three favourites (via two renewals) had finished out with the washing before the 7/4 market leader snared the silver medal three years ago. The has race reverted to type these last two years with the 11/4 and 7/4 favourites finishing out of the frame.
Record of the course winners in the fourth contest:
1/3—In On The Act (good)
1/3—Deise Vu (good)
1/5—Cold Knight (good)
1/3—Next Exit (good)
4.20: Coincidences crop up in racing all the time, albeit I tend to refer to lots of them as ‘trends’ of course. That can’t be said for the fact that the last time that DANANDY was on a racecourse, Alan King’s raider finished second to an Emma Lavelle trainer winner and here we are again, with Emma having declared SET LIST to run. Danandy’s event was over twenty one months ago and it would be a great tribute to Alan’s talents if his ten-year-old could record his sixth win, albeit in a moderate event. PLAY THE ACE is an interesting runner if only because Peter Bowen’s raider is the only stable representative anywhere on Sunday. That is particularly significant with the trainer in form, whilst having saddled as many winners as anyone else at Perth’s corresponding meeting on Sunday in recent years, which Peter has swerved.
Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Stratford card
Record of the course winners in the fourth contest:
1/2—Set List (good)
2/3—Danandy (good & soft)
2/3—Play The Ace (2 x good)
4.55: Five-year-olds have won six of the last ten renewals of the toteplacepot finale, with four vintage representatives expected to improve the ratio further still with just two rivals to beat. DEAR SIRE and REBEL YEATS look to have the race between them.
Favourite factor: Eight of the eleven favourites have secured toteplacepot positions via ten renewals, statistics which include seven winners.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Stratford card on Sunday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:
3 runners—Dan Skelton (4/18 – loss of 2 points)
2—John Cornwall (No runners)
2—Gavin Cromwell (No previous runners)
2—Philip Hobbs (0/3)
2—Donald McCain (1/2 – Slight profit)
2—Gary Moore (0/1)
2—Neil Mulholland (1/6 – loss of 2 points)
2—Michael Mullineaux (0/1)
2—Dr Richard Newland (1/3 – loss of 1 point)
2—Jackie Du Plessis (0/2)
2—Lucinda Russell (No runners)
2—Matt Sheppard (0/2)
2—Jamie Snowdon (0/1)
2—David Thompson (No previous runners)
2—Tom Weston (No previous runners)
2—Evan Williams (0/3)
+ 37 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
70 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Perth: £53.40 – 7 favourites – 1 winner – 4 placed – 2 unplaced
Southwell (NH): £213.60 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 1 placed – 4 unplaced