WINDSOR – JULY 2
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £87.00 (6 favourites: 2 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)
Sunday's Placepot permutation at Windsor:
Leg 1 (2.10): 5 (Dark Power), 1 (Nobly Born) & 4 (Lahore)
Leg 2 (2.40): 1 (Valcartier) & 3 (Kitten’s Johnstown)
Leg 3 (3.10): 12 (Whispering Bell) & 8 (Gold Dust)
Leg 4 (3.40): 3 (Chelsea Lad), 4 (Murad Khan) & 6 (General Macarthur)
Leg 5 (4.15): 10 (Dark Shot) & 6 (Upstaging)
Leg 6 (4.45): 1 (Tomily), 2 (Coofitch) & 3 (Major Jumbo)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Sunday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
2.10: A really challenging first race, though I will probably stick with the juvenile form lines of DARK POWER and NOBLY BORN, listed in order of preference with Clive Cox’s Dark Angel colt receiving sixteen pounds from John Gosden’s top weight, even taking the relevant three pound allowance into account. That said, it is difficult to rule LAHORE out of the mix entirely given his debut victory (as a three-year-old) at Doncaster.
Favourite factor: Favourites of one sort or another have secured four of the last seven renewals of the opening event, whilst six of twelve favourites during the last decade have secured Placepot positions.
2.40: The last nine winners have all carried a minimum burden of nine stones, whilst six of those gold medallists weighed in with at least 9-4. VALCARTIER seemingly sets the standard ahead of KITTEN’S JOHNSTOWN and COUNT CALABASH at the overnight stage, the trio listed very much in order of preference. Kevin Ryan (KITTEN’S JOHNSTOWN) appears to back from the doldrums having shut his yard down for a while, with Kevin Stott’s mount expected to give the selection most to do at the business end of proceedings.
Favourite factor: All ten winners during the last twelve years have scored at a top price of 13/2, statistics which include four successful market leaders. Seven of the ten favourites have secured toteplacepot positions.
3.10: Having saddled the first two top weights on the card, John Gosden’s Galileo filly WHISPERING BELL can be found down at the bottom of this list, though the same type of (successful) outcome is anticipated. On a wild day of racing on Saturday via seven UK meetings, John only declared two runners yet with just the one flat meeting on Sunday, John has a chance of saddling the first three winners on the card! There was plenty to like about the way that WHISPERING BELL went about her business on debut in the famous white and green colours of George Strawbridge and it will be disappointing if the early January foal fails to take advantage of a winning opportunity here. DISCOVERED and GOLD DUST might do best of the remaining eleven contenders.
Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Windsor card.
3.40: Martyn Meade bounced back with a winner at ‘headquarters’ on Friday evening and the trainer can celebrate another gold medallist in the form of beaten favourite CHELSEA LAD who is probably worth another chance in this grade/company. David Simcock is another trainer who is on the way back to his best, with GENERAL MACARTHUR boasting realistic each way/Placepot claims here, whilst MURAD KHAN drops down from Listed race company representing Hugo Palmer’s in-form yard.
Favourite factor: The inaugural 9/4 favourite was beaten a neck twelve months ago when beaten by a (Andrew Balding trained) 7/1 chance.
Record of the course winners in the third race:
1/3—Medburn Dream (soft)
4.15: Four and five-year-olds have (equally) shared six of the last seven renewals, whilst six of the last eight winners have carried a minimum burden of 9-3. Of the horses with ticks in both of the trend boxes, DARK SHOT makes most appeal ahead of UPSTAGING and STAKE ACCLAIM, though drying ground conditions might work against the latter named raider. DARK SHOT tackles his easiest race on paper for a while, whilst UPSTAGING looked to be returning to the type of form (last time out) which saw him reel off a hat trick last back end. Stalls two and three (of 14) respectively for DARK SHOT and UPSTAGING should ensure that at least one of the two selections can reach the frame at the very least.
Favourite factor: Only two favourites have won this event during the last decade, whilst four gold medallists were returned double figures ranging from 14/1 to 22/1. Only three market leaders finished in the frame during the study period.
Record of the course winners in the fifth contest on the card:
2/4—Stake Acclaim (good & soft)
2/8—Stellarta (2 x good to firm)
1/3—Little Palaver (good to firm)
1/3—Dark Shot (soft)
1/4—Ice Age (good to firm)
2/5—Englishman (good & soft)
4.45: A five runner (‘short field’) contest is not the ideal Placepot finale to assess, especially as four of the five runners have already posted victories, whilst the other (Tahoo) possibly ran her best race when finishing in the frame here at Windsor last time out. I tend to stick with winning horses rather than those that flatter to deceive, whereby I’m opting for TOMILY, COOLFITCH and MAJOR JUMBO against the other pair. New readers might want to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runners races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way and Placepot pespectives.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 15/8 favourite was beaten a length into second place by an 11/4 chance in a ‘win only’ contest.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Windsor card on Sunday:
4 runners—Clive Cox
2—Eve Johnson Houghton
+ 36 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
62 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Cartmel: £90.60 – 9 favourites – 1 winner – 4 placed – 4 unplaced
Uttoxeter: £11,804.80 – 6 favourites – 2 winners & 4 unplaced