NEWTON ABBOT - JULY 23
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £119.60 (6 favourites - No winners - 3 placed - 3 unplaced)
Sunday's Placepot permutation at Newton Abbot:
Leg 1 (2.20): 3 (Knight Commander) & 2 (Arty Campbell)
Leg 2 (2.50): 2 (Horse Force One) & 7 (Whoshotwho)
Leg 3 (3.20): 1 (Bigad Bihoue) & 2 (Vosne Romanee)
Leg 4 (3.50): 5 (Vision De Loire), 2 (Charlie Rascal) & 1 (Amadeus Rox)
Leg 5 (4.20): 1 (Calin Du Brizais), 5 (A Tail Of Intrigue) & 7 (Beuvron)
Leg 6 (4.50): 4 (Theo) & 2 (Bistouri D’Honore)
Suggested stake: 144 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Sunday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
2.20: There were no ‘odds against’ quotes about KNIGHT COMMANDER when penning this column at day break and I expect than scenario to be in place leading up to flag fall. It’s not so much that the four-year-old is ‘nailed on’ via the form book for me, it is more to do with the fact that three of Olly Murphy’s last six runners have won, whilst Richard Johnson has been booked to ride. Connections probably have most to fear from ARTY CAMPBELL.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 5/2 favourite duly obliged.
2.50: Six-year-olds lead the five-year-olds 4-3 via the last eight renewals with HORSE FORCE ONE looking to extend the lead for the older brigade. Upped in trip now and having to hump hurdles for the first time, HORSE FORCE ONE will, nonetheless, be well backed to win again for the Hobbs/Johnson bandwagon. Only WHOSHOTWHO can be expected to be in a position to make some sort of challenge at the business end of proceedings.
Favourite factor: Favourites have won five of the last nine renewals of this event though that said, two of the other five market leaders during the period finished out with the washing. Eleven of the winners during an extended period were returned at a top price of 7/1, the other events having been secured by 33/1 and 14/1 outsiders.
3.20: Backing Paul Nicholls runners at Newton Abbot this season has been tantamount to printing your own money, the trainer boasting a ratio of 10/15, stats which have produced 16 points of level stake profits. We will not become rich by backing BAGAD BIHOUE here but with (seemingly) only VOSNE ROMANEE to beat, Paul Nicholls will surely continue his domination of Newton Abbot contests this season when represented.
Favourite factor: The four market leaders to date have secured two gold and a pair of silver medals though unfortunately from a Placepot perspective, one of the relevant silver medallists contested a 'win only' contest.
3.50: The first reasonably competitive event on the card which would definitely be the case if a non-runner rears its head during the course of the day. I would have given a chance to Bill Turner’s debutant IL SICARIO but with the trainer having failed to secure a winner since the end of April via 29 representatives, I find myself looking elsewhere. Three other newcomers will for me accordingly, namely VISION DE GLOIRE, CHARLIE RASCAL and AMADEUS ROX. The trio are not listed in order of preference because at the time writing, there is no order of preference! I doubt any of these will be turning up at the Cheltenham Festival come March though as a wise man once told me, it never pays to presume…
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 11/8 favourite offered a ‘schoolboy error’ (name of the horse) when finishing third in a short field event whereby Placepot units went up in smoke. New readers might like to know that the term ‘short field’ relates to 5/6/7 runner race in which only the first two horses qualify from Placepot and each way perspectives.
4.20: Six of the last nine winners have carried a minimum burden of 11-5 though one of what might have been the discarded pair creates some interest. Trainer Martin Hill landed a 234/1 treble at this corresponding meeting a few years back (Martin has saddled four winners during the last years) whereby BEUVRON (carrying 11-1) will be added into the Placepot mix here at a big price, accompanying more obvious potential winners such as A TAIL OF INTRIGUE and CALIN DU BRIZAIS.
Favourite factor: Four of the last eleven market leaders have finished in the frame (exact science) during which time, three favourites (2/1, 11/4 & 3/1) have prevailed from a win perspective.
4.50: PP are out on a limb at the time of writing by offering 6/4 about THEO, the Dr Newland raider being as short as tips (11/10) with the ‘magic sign’. The good Doctor has him team in fine fettle and his hat trick seeker looks sure to go close. That said, PP are probably balancing their books because they know that there is likely to be a heap of running up money for the second Paul Nicholls runner of the day, namely BISTOURI D’HONORE. This pair should certainly land the Placepot dividend between them for us, providing we were live going into the last leg of our favourite wager.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 4/1 favourite finished out with the washing behind horses which filled the frame at 20/1, 8/1 & 8/1, enabling a half decent Placepot dividend (£119.60) to be declared.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Newton Abbot card on Sunday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:
3 runners—Martin Hill (1/13 – loss of 9 points)
3—Seamus Mullins (1/7 – loss of 1 point)
2—Peter Bowen (0/3)
2—Jimmy Frost (0/14)
2—Nicky Henderson (0/1)
2—Dr Richard Newland (No previous runners this season)
2—Paul Nicholls (10/15 – Profit of 16 points)
2—Brendan Powell (No previous runners)
2—David Rees (1/2 – Profit of 3 points)
2—Bill Turner (0/1)
2—Dai Williams (0/5)
2—Evan Williams (0/7)
+ 28 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
54 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Redcar: £178.80 – 6 favourites – 2 winners & 4 unplaced
Stratford: £70.50 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced