CARLISLE - JULY 24
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2015: £11.70 (6 favourites - 4 winners & 2 placed)
Sunday's Placepot permutation at Carlisle:
Leg 1 (2.10): 7 (Baie D'Amour) & 5 (Phijee)
Leg 2 (2.40): 2 (Kodi Da Capo), 4 (Harbour Lightning) & 7 (Katebird)
Leg 3 (3.15): 8 (Skiddaw Valleys), 3 (Mukhayyam) & 6 (Royal Regent)
Leg 4 (3.50): 2 (Muroor), 1 (Blacklister) & 6 (Wooton Vale)
Leg 5 (4.25): 7 (His Kyllachy) & 10 (Apres Midi)
Leg 6 (5.00): 2 (Osteopathic Remedy), 5 (Circuitous) & 4 (Knight Of The Air)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Sunday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
2.10: Karl Burke has long since ruled the roost in juvenile events at Carlisle, the trainer boasting a ratio of 8/20 during the last five years. Couple those figures with general (all aged) stats this season of 7/19 and you will understand why Karl's Never On Sunday filly BAIE D'AMOUR is the first name on my team sheet. A decent runner up at Hamilton last time out despite being a beaten favourite, Karl's February foal is due to go one better from my viewpoint. PHIJEE is the obvious danger given his excellent effort at Newbury at the first time of asking.
Favourite factor: This is a new race with which to open proceedings at Carlisle on Sunday.
2.40: KODI DA CAPO is the Dalgleish representative in this event which started a treble rolling for the trainer two years ago when scoring with a 9/2 chance. Moving on to last year when Ann Duffield provided the first winning favourite in the contest, with Ann having declared HARBOUR LIGHTNING this time around. KATEBIRD completes my trio against the other six contenders in this Nursery event.
Favourite factor: Both market leaders had missed out on toteplacepot positions before last year's 11/4 favourite prevailed.
3.15: Four-year-olds had secured five of the eight available toteplacepot positions via 40.7% of the total number of runners via three renewals, statistics which included two (7/1 & 13/2) winners, before last year's lone (33/1) representative finished at the tail of the field. Trainers have woken up this year whereby the relevant trio of MUKHAYYAM, ROYAL REGENT and course winner SKIDDAW VALLEYS will form my permutation in the third contest.
Favourite factor: The four favourites have one gold and a silver medal to show between them thus far.
Record of course winners in the third event on the card:
1/1--Sennockian Star (good to firm)
1/3--Skiddaw Valleys (good)
3.50: Eight of the last nine winners have carried a minimum burden of nine stones which cuts the field down from eight to three if (like yours truly) you believe in trends. MUROOR, BLACKLISTER and PAGE OF WANDS are the trio in question, the three horses being listed in order of preference at the overnight stage. That said, Richard Fahey has won three renewals via the last seven contests when the yard was represented, which is an obvious pointer towards the Nottingham winner WOOTON VALE, if you conveniently forget the weight stats.
Favourite factor: Ten renewals during the last eleven years have produced a top priced winner of 6/1, whilst four favourites have prevailed during the study period.
4.25: Southern raiders have made off with the swag in four of the seven renewals to date, three-year-olds having won on every occasion. William Haggas looks sure to go close on behalf of the south with HIS KYLLACHY who ran well at Windsor at the first time of asking. I guess that Mick Channon's raider ORGANZA could also figure prominently, though the main danger to William and connections appears to be APRES MIDI, another live contender at the meeting for Karl Burke.
Favourite factor: Only a silver medallist in 2011 has stopped favourites winning all seven contests to date.
5.00: The official assessor is beginning to loosen his grip on course winner OSTEOPATHIC REMEDY who could have his ground if a shower or two happens by overnight and/or in the lead up to the meeting on Sunday. The other course winner CIRCUITOUS could offer most resistance in the shadow of the post, whilst others to consider include KNIGHT OF THE AIR and CHARACTER ONESIE.
Favourite factor: Last year's inaugural 4/1 favourite duly obliged.
Record of course winners in the toteplacepot finale:
1/4--Osteopathic Remedy (soft)
2/12--Circuitous (2 x good)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Carlisle card on Sunday:
5--Keith Dalgleish (2/30 at Carlisle this season - winners at 25/1 & 5/1)
3--Mick Channon (1/5 - winner at 7/2)
3--Michael Dods (0/8)
3--Richard Fahey (2/22 - winners at 5/1 & 3/1)
3--Micky Hammond (0/1)
3--Iain Jardine (0/6)
3--Mark Johnston (3/16 - winners at 7/2**-10/3-9/4)
3--David O'Meara (1/12 - winner at 9/1)
3--Alan Swinbank (1/15 - winner at 7/2)
2--Karl Burke (7/19 - winners at 22/1-4/1**-7/2-3/1**-3/1-6/4*-4/7*)
2--Julie Camacho (1/8 - winner at 9/2)
2--Mick Easterby (0/9)
2--Brian Ellison (0/5)
2--John Quinn (1/6 - winner at 12/1)
2--John Ryan (0/11)
2--Bryan Smart (1/9 - winner at Evens*)
2--Mark Walford (0/2)
2--Fred Watson (0/2)
2--Alistair Whillans (0/3)
+ 20 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
69 declared runners
General overview - corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Pontefract: £ 113.20 - 7 favourites - 1 winner - 2 placed - 4 unplaced - Richard Fahey secured a 14/1 double - four winners for Richard on this day last year; 147/1 accumulator.
Uttoxeter: £35.30 - 6 favourites - 3 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced
Carlisle overview - 5 year juvenile record of represented trainers in the relevant events at 2.10 & 2.40:
6/34--Mark Johnston (Bruny Island)
3/27--Bryan Smart (Flash Of White)
1/1--Jason Ward (Monte Cinq)
0/3--Ian Jardine (Now Children)
No runners--William Muir (Phijee)
0/2--Noel Wilson (Vintage Dream)
8/20--Karl Burke (Baie D'Amour)
2/27--Michael Dods (Intense Romanse)
No runners--John David Riches (Kirkby's Phantom)
1/12--John Quinn (Local Artist)
7/38--Kevin Ryan (Red Savina)
No runners--David Dennis (Three C'S)
2/40--Keith Dalgleish (Kodi Da Capo)
1/10--David O'Meara (Coolfitch)
6/35--Ann Duffield (Harbour Lighting)
0/3--Iain Jardine (Zebedee Cat)
1/12--John Quinn (Trick Of The Lyte)
6/34--Mark Johnston (Katebird)
2/27--Michael Dods (Foxy Boy)
3/27--Bryan Smart (Sheila's Return)