AYR - JULY 3
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2015: £114.90 (7 favourites - 1 winner - 3 placed - 3 unplaced)
Sunday's Placepot permutation at Ayr:
Leg 1 (2.25): 6 (Street Of Dreams) & 8 (The Begum)
Leg 2 (2.55): 6 (Gworn), 5 (Biff Johnson) & 9 (Henpecked)
Leg 3 (3.30): 1 (Miningrocks), 2 (Latin Rebel) & 8 (Bushtiger)
Leg 4 (4.00): 6 (Beautiful Stranger), 1 (Gold Flash & 11 (Haidees Reflection)
Leg 5 (4.35): 8 (Le Chat D'Or), 4 (Finn Class) & 9 (Dubai Dynamo)
Leg 6 (5.10): 10 (Mystical KIng), 7 (A J Cook) & 8 (Red Forever)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Sunday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page - Includes unique Ayr ratios
2.25: Saeed Bin Suroor described STREET OF DREAMS as a really nice horse eighteen months ago, intimating however that we would have to wait for a long time to see the Shamardal representative on a racecourse. The day has finally arrived and with Saeed having won with one of only two raider at Ayr during the last five years, I'm inclined to row in with the newcomer. Just like on her debut, Ralph Beckett's filly THE BEGUM takes on another entire field of colts/geldings and she ran well enough at Newbury to suggest that this long journey will not be without reward at the end of the contest, whereby a Placepot position is up for grabs at the very least.
Favourite factor: The inaugural 11/8 favourite snared a toteplacepot position by finishing second in a 'short field' event two years back, before the even money market leader won twelve month ago. New readers might like to know that the term 'short field' relates to race for 5/6/7 runners in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way/toteplacepot perspectives.
2.55: Three of the four winners thus far have been burdened with a minimum weight of 9-3, as have seven of the ten horses to have secured Placepot positions. One of this year's six 'qualifiers' via the weight trend is BIFF JOHNSON who is trained by Keith Dalgleish who has saddled two of the last three winners of the contest. GWORN has scored on this type of ground at Ayr on two occasions and the five time gold medallist looks sure to figure prominently, possibly alongside HENPECKED.
Favourite factor: All three market leaders had finished out with the washing before last year's 7/2 favourite snared a Placepot position by claiming a silver medal.
Record of course winners in the second contest on the card:
2/8--Gworn (good to soft & soft)
2/6--Henpecked (2 x good to soft)
3.30: Three of the four winners have carried 9-4 or more two victory though if we adhere to the trend this time around, just two horses are set to fight out the finish, namely MINING ROCKS and LATIN REBEL. The first named (Declan Carroll trained) Lawman raider socred on heavy ground last time out and a repat of that effort under the same five pound claimer (Phil Dennis) might be good enough for the four-year-old to follow up successfully. If the weight trend goes base over apex this time around, BUSHTIGER would be my choice.
Favourite factor: Only one of the four favourites has secured a Placepot position thus far via three renewals, and that was by dead heating for the main prize in one of the two divisions of the race twelve months ago.
4.00: Keith Dalgleish has won the last two (of three) renewals with horses returned at 12/1 & 11/2, whilst an 8/1 inmate finished second in the other event. BEAUTIFUL STRANGER and GOLD FLASH are the two relevant inmates on this occasion, though they will both have to overcome (brief) weight trends if they are to score. All three winners have carried 9-7 or less whereby HAIDEES REFLECTION is included in the analysis and though I would not have a bet from a win perspective, this trio will represent yours truly on Sunday.
Favourite factor: Two of the three favourites have finished in the frame without winning their respective events.
Record of course winners in the fourth race:
1/7--Beautiful Stranger (good)
1/7--Haymarket (good to soft)
2/8--Haidees Reflection (good to firm & soft)
3/13--Dark Crystal (2 x good to soft & 1 x good to firm)
4.35: Six of the eleven entries have won and with the three time Ayr winner getting his ground, LE CHAT D'OR might have been selected from a win perspective though the fact that he has not put back to back successes together to date will mean that my wallet remains well and truly closed. That does not detract from his Placepot opportunity however and along with FINN CLASS and DUBAI DYNAMO, Paul Mulrennan's mount enters the overnight mix.
Favourite factor: Both (3/1 & 13/8) favourites had obliged before last year's 9/4 market leader finishing nearer last than first, missing out on a toteplacepot position.
Record of course winners in the fifth event:
2/5--Two For Two (2 x good to firm)
1/5--Finn Class (good)
1/4--Ingleby Angel (heavy)
3/8--Le Chat D'Or (2 x soft & 1 x good to soft)
1/14--Dubai Dynamo (good)
1/2--Nicholas T (good to firm)
5.10: For additional stats and facts about the amateur riders in this event, drop down to the foot of the column to glean what could turn out to be vital information. All three winners have carried 9-4 or less with half (five of the ten) of the field qualifying via the weight trend in the race. MYSTICAL KING demands attention if you follow the advice in the opening sentence, whilst the chances of A J COOK and TAKAHIRO are also respected. The reserve nomination is awarded to RED INVADER.
Favourite factor: Only one of the three market leaders has secured a Placepot thus far (no winners).
Record of course winners in the toteplacepot finale:
1/5--Vallerta (good to firm)
3/13--Blue Sonic (3 x good to soft)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Ayr card on Sunday:
8 runners--Jim Goldie (6/37 at Ayr this season - winners at 33/1-7/1-6/1-9/2-4/1-7/2)
6--Michael Dods (1/13 - winner at 8/1)
6--Lina Perrett (0/20)
5--Ruth Carr (3/16 - winners at 16/1-9/1-4/1)
5--Keith Dalgleish (2/22 - winners at 7/2 & 3/1* - also see 'ovreview' below)
5--Alistair Whillans (0/8)
4--Richard Fahey (2/11 - winners at 8/1 & 5/1)
4--Iain Jarnine (3/9 - winners at 5/2*-5/2*-7/4*)
3--Tim Easterby (0/2)
3--Marjorie Fife (1/4 - winner at 10/3*)
3--Kevin Ryan (1/14 - winner at 11/4**)
3--R Mike Smith (0/9)
2--Ron Barr (---)
2--Rebecca Bastiman (0/3)
2--Declan Carroll (0/1)
2--Shaun Harris (1/1 - winner at 8/1)
2--Kristin Stubbs (0/3)
+ 11 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
76 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividend from last year:
Market Rasen - £3.80 - 7 favourites - 4 winners & 3 placed
Ayr - see stats above, whilst Keith Dalgleish secured a 116/1 double on the Ayr card last year (5 runners declared on Sunday)
Five year flat record of the amateur jockeys booked in the 5.40 event:
15/105--Miss Joanna Morgan (Mystical King)
6/84--Mrs C Bartley (Secret Millionaire)
5/40--Mrs R Wilson (Red Invader)
3/75--Miss Becky Smith (Perfect Words)
2/16--Mr B James (Takahiro)
2/44--Mrs V Davies (A J Cook)
1/12--Miss E Easterby (Penny Royale)
1/35--Miss Helen Cuthbert (Red Forever)
0/1--Mr J Waggott (It's Time For Bed)
0/2--Miss C A Dods (Reflation)
0/10--Mr Benjamin Stephens (Bronze Beau)