CHESTER - JULY 31
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2015: £36.00 (6 favourites - 4 winners & 2 placed)
Sunday's Placepot permutation at Chester:
Leg 1 (2.10): 2 (Devil's Bridge) & 3 (Navarone)
Leg 2 (2.40): 1 (Tailor's Row) & 3 (Garrard's Return)
Leg 3 (3.15): 6 (Intrasigent), 3 (Danzeno) & 4 (Eastern Impact)
Leg 4 (3.50): 1 (Marcret), 11 (Heir To A Throne) & 5 (Gabriel The Tiger)
Leg 5 (4.25): 3 (Lonely The Brave) & 4 (Super Julius)
Leg 6 (4.55): 3 (Lord Franklin), 4 (Save The Bees) & 10 (Lupito De Vega)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Sunday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
2.10: I'm inclined to give Richard Hannon's Casamento colt DEVIL'S BRIDGE another chance, despite this being his fourth assignment while still attempting to register his first success. Like a few others in this opening contest however, he has run well enough to suggest that a victory remains on the radar. It will be interesting to see of THOMAS CRANMER can improve for changing to turf following two efforts on all weather surfaces, though a more obvious winner is NAVARONE I guess.
Favourite factor: Eight of the last eleven favourites have finished in the frame in as many years, statistics which include seven winners. Favourites come to the party on a five timer on this occasion.
2.40: Tom Dascombe has saddled three of the last four winners of this contest with the trainer saddling GERRARD'S RETURN this time around. Tom's well beaten favourite needs to show better form though this is not the toughest Nursery event thus far this season and the trainer tends to know the type of two-year-old that can handle the twists and turns at this venue. TAILOR'S ROW has the plum draw and is the horse to beat from my viewpoint.
Favourite factor: All 11 winners in as many years have scored at a top price of 9/2, statistics which include six successful market leaders. Eight of the eleven market leaders secured toteplacepot positions in the process.
3.15: Horses carrying a minimum burden of nine stones have secured eight of the last ten contests, with the winner of two years ago INTRANSIGENT turning up again, following a bronze medal effort in the race twelve months ago. EASTERN IMPACT won last year though he is four pounds worse of with Andrew Balding's raider having beaten INTRANSIGENT by two lengths. Andrew has his team in blinding form (8/24 at the time of writing), whilst the trainer boasts a ratio of 6/22 on the Roodee this season. Both horses should figure prominently again, arguably alongside DANZENO.
Favourite factor: Nine of the twelve market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions during the last eleven years during which time, three clear market leaders and one joint prevailed.
Record of course winners in the third race on the card:
1/1--Aeolus (good to soft)
1/1--Eastern Impact (good)
2/3--Hillbilly Boy (good & good to soft)
1/8--Intransigent (good to soft)
3.50: Five-year-olds have won three of the last six renewals with last year's lone (12/1) vintage raider letting the side down. Ice Slice is the only relevant entry and once again, the five-year-old ratio could be diluted given that the handicapper might have hold of the James Eustace representative now after a successful season. I prefer the trio of MARCRET, HEIR TO A THRONE and GABRIEL THE TIGER.
Favourite factor: Favourites have won five of the last nine contests, whilst seven market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions during the study period.
Record of course winners in the fourth event:
4/14--Marcret (2 x soft + good & good to soft)
3/6--Gabriel The Tiger (2 x good & 1 x good to soft)
1/12--Alejandro (good to firm)
1/5--Fast Dancer (good to firm)
1/15--Chosen Character (good)
1/1--Heir To A Throne (good)
4.25: Top trainers are supporting this race despite the fact that just four runners are lining up on this occasion. The world and his dog knows that Franny Norton rides this venue in a successful way that few others can match, though I had never looked up his stats until now. Franny has ridden 48 winners on the Roodee during the last five years with his next best figure being 20 at Haydock, which shows you just how much the underrated pilot excels on this racecourse. Franny climbs aboard LONELY THE BRAVE who was a decent (two length) winner at Chelmsford on his second start under the the same pilot. Mark Johnston's Lawman colt only went under by a neck at the first time of asking and Mark's February foal is preferred to course winner SUPER JULUIS in this 'win only' event. Eve Johnson Houghton's course winner was beaten less than four lengths in Newbury's 'Super Sprint' and looks sure to give her running again at Chester where he won with plenty to spare back in June.
Favourite factor: The inaugural 5/4 market leader duly obliged, though the 7/4 favourite twelve months ago failed to follow in the same hoof-prints by finishing fourth of five behind horses which filled the 'short field' frame at 7/2 & 13/2. Last year's 11/10 market leader found one too good for him in another 'short field' event. New readers might like to know that the term 'short term' relates to races for 5/6/7 runner in which just the first two horses home qualify for each way/toteplacepot positions.
Record of the course winner in the fifth contest:
1/1--Super Julius (good)
4.55: Eric Alston (LORD FRANKLIN) had saddled four winners already this month at the time of writing (first time for a year that the trainer has saddled so many in a single month) and Eric might end July in good successfully from my viewpoint. Declan Carroll is another handler who has been 'bubbling under the radar' of late whereby the chance of the relevant course and distance winner SAVE THE BEES is respected. LOPITO DE VEGA completes my trio against the other seven runners in the Placepot finale.
Favourite factor: Last year's inaugural 7/2 favourite claimed a Placepot position when finishing third behind horses returned at 16/1 and 4/1.
Record of the course winner in the sixth event:
1/4--Save The Bees (good to firm)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Chester card on Sunday:
7--Richard Fahey (10/77 at Chester this season - Prices ranging between 7/4* & 20/1 - level stake profit of 3 points)
4--Tom Danscombe (7/72 - Prices ranging between 4/6* & 13/2 - level stake loss of 24 points)
4--Mark Johnston (1/30)
3--Richard Hannon (3/12 - winners at 12/1 - 6/1 - 5/1)
3--David O'Meara (1/6 - winner at 16/1)
2--Michael Appleby (1/10 - winner at 7/1)
2--Andrew Balding (6/22 - Prices ranging between 3/1 & 10/1)
2--Declan Carroll (0/2)
2--Bernard Llewellyn (2/10 - 22/1 & 10/1)
+ 30 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
59 declared runners
General overview - corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Chepstow: £57.30 - 6 favourites - 3 winners & 3 unplaced
Market Rasen: £211.40 - 6 favourites - 1 winner - 1 placed - 4 unplaced
Chester overview - 5 year juvenile record of represented trainers in the relevant events at 2.10 - 2.40 - 4.25:
0/2--Lawrence Mallany (Albuiz Campos)
8/24--Richard Hannon (Devil's Bridge)
14/73--Richard Fahey (Navarone)
13/71--Tom Dascombe ((Roaring Character)
13/68--Mark Johnston (Thomas Cranmer)
13/68--Mark Johnston (Tailor's Row)
14/73--Richard Fahey (In First Place & Rosebridge)
13/71--Tom Dascombe (Gerrard's Return)
0/2--Ian Williams (Turanga Leela)
No runners--Ollie Pears (Melaniemillie)
0/4--David O'Meara (Eva Gore)
2/10--John Quinn (Trick Of The Lyte)
8/24--Richard Hannon (Kreb's Cycle)
2/21--Andrew Balding (Leontes)
13/68--Mark Johnston (Lonely The Brave)
1/4--Eve Johnson Houghton (Super Julius)