AYR - JULY 9
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £69.60 (8 favourites - 1 winner - 5 placed - 2 unplaced)
Sunday's Placepot permutation at Ayr:
Leg 1 (1.40): 5 (Pouvoir Magique) & 4 (Itsalonglongroad)
Leg 2 (2.10): 7 (Gworn), 1 (Hibou), 9 (Archie’s Advice) & 6 (Royal Regent)
Leg 3 (2.45): 2 (Uriah Heep), 9 (Zacchetto) & 11 (Whitchurch)
Leg 4 (3.15): 6 (Haymarket), 2 (Colour Contrast) & 11 (Never Say)
Leg 5 (3.50): 3 (Abushamah), 6 (Crazy Tornado) & 7 (Argaki)
Leg 6 (4.20): 6 (Town Charter) & 4 (Normandie Lady)
Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Sunday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
1.40: Another successful Placepot was registered on Saturday, without making a fortune by any means but consistency is the name of the game and let’s hope we can keep the bandwagon rolling along again today. John Gosden’s runners sprang back to form yesterday (John is rarely far away from the area reserved for winners on a racecourse) and the popular trainer looks to have found an obvious opportunity for Pouvoir Magique. John’s Le Havre colt should only have go the start and come back again to snare the Scottish swag though that said, the scenario was too much for him the last day when he bolted on the way to post and had to be withdrawn. Let’s hope for no such shenanigans today in this ‘short field’ opening event, though I am duty bound to add ITSALONGLONGROAD into the mix given what happened at Colwich Park the last day.
Favourite factor: All three market leaders have secured Placepot positions thus far, statistics which include two (Evens & 8/11) winners. New readers might like to know that the term 'short field' relates to race for 5/6/7 runners in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way/toteplacepot perspectives.
2.10: Four of the five winners thus far have been burdened with a minimum weight of 9-3, as have 10 of the 13 horses to have secured Placepot positions.
The 8/1 trade press quote for GWORN looks fanciful or at least it would do if the forecast showers arrive on time, Mike Smith’s raider having finished third in this event last year off a one pound lower mark. That rating reads well given his recent 3/4 record, notwithstanding four career successes over course and distance. Add in the fact that GWORN has finished ‘in the three’ in nine of his 18 starts to date here at Ayr and I kind of get the feeling that the seven-year-old has to be included in Placepot plans today at the very least. If the ground remains dry, HIBOU would be considered a live threat, whilst rain would aid and abet the chance of ARCHIE’S ADVICE and ROYAL REGENT.
Favourite factor: Two of the six market leaders have finished in the money via five renewals (no winners).
2.45: Today’s forecast (good) ground is spot on for URIAH HEEP who makes plenty of appeal around the 14/1 mark this morning. Certainly the trade press quote of 20/1 is an insult given the form of Mike Smith’s horses this year, if you take into account his 5/14 ratio at Ayr this season, stats which have produced 21 points on level stake profit. 22/1 is still available ‘in a place’ (Bet365) this morning if you care to shop around for an each way interest in the contest. Others to take into consideration include ZACCHETTO and another outsider, namely WHITCHURCH from the in-form Iain Jardine stable.
Favourite factor: Only one of the five favourites has secured a Placepot position thus far via four renewals, and that was by dead heating for the main prize in one of the two divisions of the race two years ago.
3.15: HAYMARKET is another Mike Smith runner on the cards with each way claims and the eight-year-olds represents half decent value for money at around the 6/1 mark as I write this column. COLOUR CONTRAST and NEVER SAY complete my trio against the remaining ten options.
Favourite factor: This is the second division of the previous race on the card whereby the same stats apply. Only one of the five favourites has secured a Placepot position thus far via four renewals, and that was by dead heating for the main prize in one of the two divisions of the race two years ago.
3.50: Keith Dalgleish has won the last three (of four) renewals with horses returned at 12/1, 9/1 & 11/2, whilst an 8/1 inmate finished second in one of the relevant contests. It’s worth noting that Keith secured a 116/11 double on the corresponding card two years ago, and another 14/1 twosome the year before. Keith is double handed here with ARGAKI and CRAZY TORNADO having been declared, with connections possibly having most to fear from ABUSHAMAH at the business end of the contest.
Favourite factor: Two of the three favourites have finished in the frame without winning their respective events.
4.20: Oh for the 7/2 trade press price about TOWN CHARTER being chalked up on boards this morning, though 2/1 is a more realistic quote from my viewpoint. Mark Johnston has been in decent form of late (albeit via a plethora of runners) and the trainer can celebrate another success in the Placepot finale me thinks. Finn Class won the race two years ago but ran unplaced last year and this year’s mark suggests that Mark Johnston and connections could have more to worry about with NORMANDIE LADY having been declared.
Favourite factor: Three of the four favourites have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include two (3/1 & 13/8) winners.
Record of course winners in the fifth event:
2/5--Two For Two (2 x good to firm)
1/5--Finn Class (good)
1/4--Ingleby Angel (heavy)
3/8--Le Chat D'Or (2 x soft & 1 x good to soft)
1/14--Dubai Dynamo (good)
1/2--Nicholas T (good to firm)
5.10: For additional stats and facts about the amateur riders in this event, drop down to the foot of the column to glean what could turn out to be vital information. All three winners have carried 9-4 or less with half (five of the ten) of the field qualifying via the weight trend in the race. MYSTICAL KING demands attention if you follow the advice in the opening sentence, whilst the chances of A J COOK and TAKAHIRO are also respected. The reserve nomination is awarded to RED INVADER.
Favourite factor: Only one of the three market leaders has secured a Placepot thus far (no winners).
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividend from last year:
Market Rasen: £804.20 – 6 favourites – No winners – 3 placed – 3 unplaced