WARWICK – MARCH 12
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £186.30 (6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced)
Sunday's Placepot permutation at Warwick:
Leg 1 (2.20): 2 (Count Meribel) & 8 (Grand Turina)
Leg 2 (2.50): 1 (Song Saa) & 2 (Kayfleur)
Leg 3 (3.25): 2 (Robin Of Locksley) & 3 (Seas Of Green)
Leg 4 (3.55): 10 (Vice Et Vertu), 11 (Abbeygrey) & 8 (Beforeall)
Leg 5 (4.30): 3 (Akula), 1 (Miracle Cure) & 10 (Act Four)
Leg 6 (5.00): 1 (Miracle Cure) & 3 (Simply Wings)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Sunday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
2.20: I cannot start my analysis any other way than glorifying in two of the last three corresponding Placepot dividends which have paid £8,242.80 & £6,946.60! Five-year-olds have won two of the three contests to date, with vintage representatives around the 11/8 mark to extend the trend before the form book is consulted. The pick of the relevant sextet could prove to be COUNT MERIBEL and MAKE MY HEART FLY. If the brief trend is to be brought to a halt this time around, last year’s winning trainer Venetia Williams is the likely joker in the pack having declared GRAND TURINA, the first of her seven runners on the card.
Favourite factor: Two of the three favourites have won their respective events, though search parties are still looking for the other 4/6 chance.
2.50: Three words such as mares, novice and steeplechase do not sit comfortably together from my viewpoint though that said, favourites have a decent record in the contest as you can detect below. The last nine winners have carried a minimum burden of eleven stones and though the two that miss out on this occasion sit just 16 ounces below the ‘superior’ sector of the handicap, there is little point burning the midnight oil if ignoring the conclusions. Accordingly, SONG SAA and the lone course winner in the field KAYFLEUR will carry my Placepot cash.
Favourite factor: Favourites have secured six gold, a silver and one bronze medal to date, with only two market leaders having finished out with the washing.
Record of the course winner in the second race:
1/4—Kayfleur (good to soft)
3.25: The great Placepot dividend two years ago (£8,242.80) was always on the cards given that few people would have contemplated the 16/1-50/1-20/1 chances which filled the frame in this event. Fifteen of the last seventeen winners have carried weights of 10-13 or more (including thirteen of the last fourteen gold medallists), though I have only included the stats for your long term records as all seven runners ‘qualify’ on this occasion. Caroline Bailey has her team in red hot form (four of her last six runners have won – six points of level stake profit during the period) whereby her beaten favourite ROBIN OF LOCKSLEY could atone for recent losses in this grade/company. Paul Cowley has also been enjoying more than his fair share of success and with Richard Johnson having been booked to ride stable representative SEAS OF GREEN, the dual course winner could improve an already impress ratio at the venue (see stats below). CHATEAU ROBIN is the overnight reserve nomination.
Favourite factor: Seven of the last nineteen favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include five winners.
Record of the course winner in the third event on the card:
2/4—Seas Of Green (2 x soft)
3.55: Nine of the last eleven winners carried 11-4 or less with only five of the twelve entries qualifying via the weight trend this time around. My trio against the field consists of VICE ET VERTU, ABBYGREY and BEFOREALL.
Favourite factor: Although only two favourites have prevailed during the last 19 years, each and every winner had scored at odds of 11/1 or less before the last two 33/1 & 12/1 gold medallists reared their ugly heads. Only eight of the twenty four market leaders have reached the frame (exact science) during the study period.
Record of the course winner in the fourth event:
1/4—Rigadin De Beauchene (soft)
1/2—Carli King (good)
1/4—Vice Et Vertu (heavy)
4.30: ‘Team Sheppard’ have been going great guns of late and the weight that their inmate ACT FOUR receives here could result in additional prize money for the stable this month. Likelier winners in the contest however include MIRACLE CURE and AKULA.
Favourite factor: The fifth event is a new race on the Warwick card.
5.00: MON PERRAIN might not be good enough to contest the ‘Foxhunters’ at Cheltenham on Friday but this race should be there for taking, with (seemingly) only SIMPLY WINGS to beat, according to the gospel of yours truly.
Favourite factor: Three of the six favourites have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include one (3/10) winner.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Warwick card on Sunday – followed by theirs ratio at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:
7 runners—Venetia Wiliams (1/9 – loss of 6 points)
3—Tom George (0/2)
3—Nigel Twiston-Davies (5/24 – Profit of 1 point)
3—Evan Wuilliams (0/9)
3—Ian Williams (1/12 – loss of 5 points)
2—Caroline Bailey (0/6)
2—Kim Bailey (2/10 – Profit of 4 points)
2—Henry Daly (1/11 – loss of 7 points)
2—Charlie Longsdon (5/20 - Profit of 7 points)
2—Henry Oliver (1/8 – loss of 2 points)
2—Dan Skelton (5/31 – loss of 15 points)
+ 31 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
62 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Market Rasen: £763.20 - 7 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 2 unplaced