CARLISLE – MARCH 19
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £164.10 (6 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 2 unplaced)
Sunday's Placepot permutation at Carlisle:
Leg 1 (2.15): 1 (Fattsota) & 12 (Bruichladdich)
Leg 2 (2.45): 2 (The Dutchman) & 1 (Gino Trail)
Leg 3 (3.20): 4 (Hills Of Dubai), 1 (Magic Dancer) & 3 (Modulus)
Leg 4 (3.55): 1 (Firth Of The Clyde), 9 (No Planning) & 3 (Cloudy Too)
Leg 5 (4.25): 3 (Lord Ballim), 1 (Hartside), 2 (Danceintothelight) & 4 (Endeavour)
Leg 6 (5.00): 2 (Pearlysteps) & 3 (Mister Marker)
Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Sunday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
2.15: Five-year-olds have won three of the five renewals with vintage representatives finishing second and third in one of year’s that five-year-old's missed out from a win perspective. BRUICHLADDICH could prove to be the pick of the vintage representatives, though FATTSOTA should take the beating on all known form. That said, all five winners to date have carried a lower weight than David O’Meara’s nine-year-old whereby from a win perspective, my cash will be safely held under lock and key.
Favourite factor: Four of the five favourites have finished in the money, statistics which include three winners.
2.45: My selections have scored at 9/2 and 11/4 in this event in two of the last three years and for the record, dual beaten favourite (in two of his last three races) THE DUTCHMAN is given a chance to atone for recent losses. I am anything but convinced that he is a solid bet but with all five winners of this race having carried 11-5 or less, Sandy Thomson’s raider is taken to beat GINO TRAIL who has a touch of ‘seconditis’ just now, with the official assessor possibly needing to drop him a few pounds in order for Kerry Lee’s ten-year-old to regain the winning thread. Warksburn Boy is 62 pounds ‘wrong in the weights’ with the selection according to official ratings.
Favourite factor: The 6/4 second favourite won a three horse event in the first running of this event five years ago, before one of the 2/1 joint market leaders scored in 2013. Three of the six favourites in total have finished in the frame, with the 2/5 market leader scraping into a Placepot position by snaring a silver medal in 2015.
3.20: Donald McCain has failed to secure a toteplacepot position in each of the last four years at the Cheltenham Festival though as a positive individual, Donald has offered the green light to more runners (three in total) on this card than any other trainer, the same scenario as was in place twelve months ago. Stable representative HILLS OF DUBAI has a definite chance of putting a smile back on the face of the trainer, with seemingly MAGIC DANCER and the hat trick seeker MODULUS to beat. For the record, Donald saddled the 9/1 winner of this event twelve months ago.
Favourite factor: The 2012 inaugural 7/2 favourite duly scored as four of the leading six horses in the market dominated the 13 runner contest. Bookmakers got their own back the following year however as a 25/1 chance proved too strong for the 6/5 favourite close home, with the third horse 33 lengths adrift of the pair. The last three favourites have been beaten with two of them finishing in the frame (exact science).
3.55: Having weaved our way through the Cheltenham Festival week, it strikes yours truly that there is room for one more race at Prestbury park on an annual basis and yes given that I mention it at this time on the Carlisle card you have probably guessed that I am calling for a veteran’s steeplechase, this kind of event having proved so popular in recent years. Upwards and onward in positive mode for Carlisle’s version by suggesting that FIRTH OF THE CLYDE should take the beating here having won the race as a 9/1 chance last year. Sue Smith’s pair might chase the selection home, namely NO PLANNING and CLOUDY TOO.
Favourite factor: The trade press has this down as a new race which it is not! Last year’s inaugural 11/4 favourite secured a Placepot position when finishing third behind horses returned at 9/1 and 11/2. Sometimes races are deemed as new events because of the slight change in distance, classification etc., though that is clearly not the case this time around (same Class 2 event contested over the identical three mile and half a furlong trip).
Record of the course winners in the fourth race on the card:
1/2—Firth Of The Clyde (good to soft)
1/4—Cultram Abbey (soft)
2/3—Cloudy Too (2 x heavy)
1/1—Kaki De La Pree (soft)
2/5—Milborough (2 x soft)
4.25: All five winners have carried a minimum burden of 11-3, whilst six-year-olds would have come to the gig on a four-timer had any of the trainers been live to the ‘edge’. Although ENDEAVOUR looks to have plenty to do from the ‘inferior’ sector of the handicap according to the weight trends, this win only contest does not afford us to become complacent whereby I will probably include all four horses in my permutation, hoping that Dianne Sayer’s raider prevails. The top three horses are only separated by a pound according to the official assessor, whereby I am listing them in marginal order of preference as LORD BALLIM, HARTSIDE and DANCEINTOTHELIGHT.
Favourite factor: Three of the five favourites have prevailed, though the other two market leaders finished out with the washing. Four of the five winners scored at a top price of 3/1, though a 25/1 chance came to the rescue for the majority of layers a couple of years back. Talking of which, I dislike the generalisation that is spouted by supposed media ‘experts’ when discussing whether punters have won or lost, particularly at big meetings such as the Gold Cup card on Friday. The relevant expert suggested that bookmakers had “undoubtedly won the battle” over the punters during the course of the week, but surely only from a ‘majority’ perspective. I know of several people who enjoyed their best ever Festival, whilst there are enough punters who put together multiple bets regarding popular trainers this week that worked out perfectly via Gordon Elliott, Willie Mullins and Jessica Harrington supporters. Gordon Elliott: 1,988/1 treble on Tuesday, 39/1 double on Wednesday & a 12/1 winner on Friday. Willie Mullins: 178/1 4-timer on Thursday & 356/1 double on Friday. Jessica Harrington: 87/1 double on Friday having saddled a 16/1 winner on Wednesday. Add the point that the champion jockey (Richard Johnson) rode a 33/1 winner in the mix and the lesson should be learned; don’t generalise guys!
Record of the course winners in the fifth event:
1/4—Hartside (good to soft)
1/2—Laord Ballim (good to soft)
5.00: MISTER MARKER has won a couple of times at this venue which is invariably worth a good few lengths, though the terms and conditions of this event clearly favour PEARLYSTEPS. Locals don’t take kindly to ‘southern folk’ coming to snare the swag in Cumbria however, whereby Henry Daly’s Shropshire raider might be allowed to go off at a reasonable price.
Favourite factor: Four of the five market leaders have claimed Placepot positions (two winners), with last year’s 1/2 favourite still being sought by detectives the length and breadth of the land. Tread carefully, as two of the fivewinners of this race scored at 100/1 and 20/1.
Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:
2/7—Mister Marker (good to soft & soft)
1/4—Quel Elite (soft)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Carlisle card on Sunday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:
3 winners—Donald McCain (10/38 – Profit of 7 seven points)
2—Phil Kirby (0/3)
2—Charlie Longsdon (0/4)
2—Nicky Richards (1/15 – loss of 5 points)
2—Dianne Sayer (0/5)
2—Sue Smith (4/24 – Profit of 7 points)
2—Sandy Thomson (1/5 – loss of 2 points)
2—Miss G Walton (No previous runners this season)
2—Peter Winks (0/2)
+ 16 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
35 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Ffos Las: £318.20 – 7 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 4 unplaced