CARLISLE – MARCH 20
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2015: £171.80 (6 favourites: 1 winner - 2 placed - 3 unplaced)
Average Placepot dividend (all codes) in 2016 (calendar year): £618.99
Average NH Placepot dividend in 2016: £862.97
Average Carlisle NH Placepot dividend in 2016: £307.76 (3 meetings)
Sunday's Placepot permutation at Carlisle:
Leg 1 (2.15): 2 (Bruce Almighty) & 4 (Buckled)
Leg 2 (2.45): 3 (Katachenko), 1 (Captain Hox) & 7 (Tomorrow's Legend)
Leg 3 (3.20): 1 (Dakota Grey) & 2 (Imada)
Leg 4 (3.55): 3 (Mr Moonsh1ne), 5 (Tullamore Dew) & 10 (Settledoutofcourt)
Leg 5 (4.30): 1 (Never Never) & 2 (Iniciar)
Leg 6 (5.00): 1 (Long Run) & 4 (Robbie)
Suggested stake: 144 bets to 20p stakes
2.15: Donald McCain has failed to secure a toteplacepot position in each of the last three years at the Cheltenham Festival though as a positive individual, Donald has offered the green light to more runners (four in total) on this card than any other trainer. Stable representative BRUCE ALMIGHTY was all at sea under very heavy conditions when well beaten last time out and this better ground gives Donald's raider genuine claims. Connections could have most to fear from BRYDEN BOY and BUCKLED on this occasion. David Pipe's runner Baraka De Thaix might represent poor value for money, both from win and Placepot perspectives.
Favourite factor: The 2012 inaugural 7/2 favourite duly scored as four of the leading six horses in the market dominated the 13 runner contest. Bookmakers got their own back the following year however as a 25/1 chance proved too strong for the 6/5 favourite close home, with the third horse 33 lengths adrift of the pair. The last two favourites have been beaten with only one of them finishing in the frame (exact science).
2.45: My selections have scored at 9/2 and 11/4 in this event in the last two years and trying to complete the treble with a half decent priced selection, my eyes are attracted to KATACHENKO, the seven-year-old being another Donald McCain runner with a half decent chance on the programme. Wayne Hutchinson's mount has been entered up quite a bit of late and is being given his chance here, with Wayne already having ridden six winners in the steeplechase sector for Donald this season. The top and bottom weighted horses might offer most resistance at the business end of proceedings, namely CAPTAIN HOX and TOMORROW'S LEGEND.
Favourite factor: The 6/4 second favourite won a three horse event in the first running of this event four years ago, before one of the 2/1 joint market leaders scored in 2013. Three of the five favourites in total have finished in the frame, with last year's 2/5 market leader scraping into a Placepot position by snaring a silver medal.
3.20: Five-year-olds have won the last three (of four) renewals to date and even then, vintage representatives finished second and third on the five-year-old's missed out from a win perspective. Course and distance winner DAKOTA GREY easily looks the pick of four relevant raiders this time around, with IMADA appearing to be the obvious danger.
Favourite factor: Two (11/10) favourites had obliged alongside a successful 8/13 odds on shot via three renewals to date before last year's 1/5 market leader was beaten fair and square by a 7/1 chance in a three horse race.
Carlisle record of course winners in the third race:
3.55: A 'veterans' race to assess, with the thought that this is surely the type of popular race that will be added to the Cheltenham Festival during the next few years. 11 runners have been declared and my trio against the other eight contenders consists of MR MOONSHINE, TULLAMORE DEW and BARAFUNDLE. All three nominations have won here at Carlisle, a factor which should always be taken into consideration, so much so that the fourth relevant horse SETTLEDOUTOFCOURT is chosen as the overnight reserve option.
Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Carlisle card.
Carlisle record of course winners in the fourth event on the card:
4.30: All four winners have carried a minimum burden of 11-3, whilst six-year-olds come to the gig on a hat trick. NEVER NEVER and INICIAR possess ticks in both of the relevant boxes, with six-year-olds responsible for less than 27% of the total number of runners in this event to date.
Favourite factor: The first two (4/5 & 11/10) favourites had prevailed before the last two market leaders finished out with the washing.
Carlisle record of course winners in the fifth contest:
5.00: The previous two winners won this Hunter Chase event at odds of 100/1 & 20/1 (which is a really unusual scenario in races in this sector of the sport) before last year's 4/6 market leader brought us back into the land of the living. Providing the former Cheltenham Gold Cup winner is 90% fit, LONG RUN should turn this event into a procession, the eleven-year-old being aimed for another tilt at the Grand National next month. ROBBIE is expected to fill the forecast position.
Favourite factor: The three market leaders to date had secured a medal of each colour alongside toteplacepot positions, before last year's odds on favourite restored the edge in favour of the majority of punters.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Carlisle card on Sunday:
+ 28 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
50 declared runners