HUNTINGDON – MARCH 5
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £289.60 (8 favourites – 4 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced)
Sunday's Placepot permutation at Huntingdon:
Leg 1 (2.00): 2 (Azzuri) & 5 (Land League)
Leg 2 (2.30): 1 (Fifty Bob), 2 (Good Man Hughie) & 9 (Far From Defeat)
Leg 3 (3.00): 4 (Nesterenko), 7 (Weststreet) & 2 (Derrintogher Bliss)
Leg 4 (3.30): 1 (Desert Queen) & 3 (Antartica De Thaix)
Leg 5 (4.00): 3 (Blameitalonmyroots), 6 (Lord Heathfield) & 9 (Wood Yer)
Leg 6 (4.30): 8 (Walsingham Grange) & 2 (Ryeolliean)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Sunday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
2.00: Dan Skelton's ratio continues to impress, so much so that I thought I would offer the details. First season; 16% strike rate in the NH sector via 27 winners – second season: 19% via 73 winners - last season: 20% via 104 gold medallists and at the time of writing this term: 79 winners (15%). It is nigh impossible to look beyond Dan’s representative AZZURI, despite the fact that the five-year-old was a beaten favourite last time out. His placed efforts in Grade 1 and Grade 2 races at Kempton and Aintree tell you all you need to know in the context of this (otherwise) poor opening event. LAND LEAGUE should fill the forecast position from what we have witnessed thus far.
Favourite factor: Six of the ten market leaders have won this opening event. Eight of the ten have secured toteplacepot positions to date.
2.30: FAR FROM DEFEAT represents the in form yard of Michael Scudamore with an each way chance in a race which not require a great deal of winning. That said, FIFTY BOB and GOOD MAN HUGHIE are more obvious winners in the field I guess. It’s interesting that with two runners in the contest, Kim Bailey has booked the services of a claimer aboard FIFTY BOB who ran well at Doncaster last time out. The step up in trip here should suit as well.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 2/1 favourite duly obliged.
3.00: Venetia Williams had a day to forget yesterday as all seven inmates were beaten, albeit four of her previous five runners had won. Providing the ground does not cut up too badly, NESTERENKO might return a smile to the trainer’s face, with Grand National winning jockey Liam Treadwell in the plate today. Can you believe that nearly eight years have passed since the trainer/jockey bandwagon scored with Mon Mome at Aintree? It’s disappointing to report that Liam has secured just two subsequent ‘Grade races’ since that day back in 2009. Upwards and onward by suggesting that WESTSTREET could emerge as the biggest threat, especially if the anticipated showers arrive on cue. Soft ground course winner DERRINTOGHER BLISS is the other potential winner in the field according to the gospel of yours truly.
Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Huntingdon card.
Record of the course winner in the third race:
1/1—Derrintogher Bliss (soft)
3.30: Paul Nicholls landed a 194/1 treble for me yesterday, albeit it took ten bites of the cherry (runners) to land the hat trick. Paul saddles just the one runners today with ANTARTICA DE THAIX in this event, Paul’s only inmate to receive a green light this week until Thursday at the earliest, a sure sign that a certain festival is upcoming! That said, DESERT QUEEN does not seem to have any more to do than was the case Leicester recently when Harry Fry’s mare scored with the minimum of fuss.
Favourite factor: Last year’s (Willie Mullins trained) 1/2 favourite found one too good, despite securing a Placepot position in a ‘short field’ contest. New readers might want to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runners races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way & Placepot perspectives.
Record of the course winner in the fourth event on the card:
4.00: WOOD YER would have been the automatic call (still figures in my Placepot mix) but for the fact that the Nigel Twiston-Davies runners have suddenly gone off the boil following a thoroughly impressive strike rate of 23% via 76 winners during a six month period which ended in January. Since then, Nigel’s inmates have recorded a strike rate of less than 6% via just four winners, none of which have scored during the last fortnight (26 runners). Accordingly, I feel obligated to prefer BLAMEITALONMYROOTS and LORD HEATHFIELD from a win perspective this time around.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 6/5 favourite was the only runner that failed to complete the course in a four runner ‘win only’ event.
Record of the course winners in the fifth race:
1/2—Cyclop (good to soft)
1/3—Ganbei (good to soft)
1/1—Wood Yer (good to soft)
4.30: RYEOLLIEAN could prove to the be the each way option with Gary Moore’s team going well at present, notwithstanding the fact that the six-year-old has been dropped three spots, now taking him 13 pounds below his last winning mark. Pam Sly’s recent Catterick winner WALSINGHAM GRANGE might still take the beating however.
Favourite factor: The Placepot finale is another new race on the Huntingdon programme.
Record of the course winner in the ‘lucky last’:
1/2—Steel City (heavy)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Huntingdon card on Sunday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:
5 runners—Nigel Twiston-Davies 3/15 – loss of 4 points)
4—Kim Bailey (2/18 – loss of 9 points)
4—Jonjo O’Neill (3/20 – loss of 5 points)
3—David Peter Dunne (No previous runners)
3—Oliver Sherwood (0/7)
3—Pam Sly (0/1)
3—Dan Skelton (1/13 – loss of 10 points)
2—Henry Daly (0/3)
2—Mick Easterby (0/6)
2—Alan King (4/18 – loss of 1 points)
2—A J Martin (No previous runners)
2—Laura Mongan (0/3)
2—Gary Moore (3/15 – Profit of 2 points)
2—Neil Mulholland (3/11 - Profit of 6 points)
2—Michael Scudamore (0/1)
2—Derek Shaw (0/2)
2—Venetia Williams (0/3)
+ 39 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
84 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Sedgefield: £2,165.60 – 8 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 4 unplaced