NEWMARKET – MAY 1
Corresponding toteplacepot dividends from the last five years:
2015: £166.60 (6 favourites: No winners - 4 placed - 2 unplaced)
2014: £272.40 (8 favourites: 2 winners - 3 placed - 3 unplaced)
2013: £539.90 (7 favourites: 1 winners - 1 placed - 5 unplaced)
2012: £348.70 (7 favourites: No winners - 2 placed - 5 unplaced)
2011: £2,715.70 (10 favourites: No winners - 3 placed - 7 unplaced)
Average dividend: £808.66 - 38 favourites in total - 3 winners - 13 placed - 22 unplaced
Sunday's Placepot permutation at Newmarket:
Leg 1 (1.50): 7 (Oasis Fantasy), 9 (Slunovrat) & 10 (Bazooka)
Leg 2 (2.25): 3 (Crystal Zvezda) & 6 (Jazzi Top)
Leg 3 (3.00): 11 (New Bidder), 16 (Captain Bob), 12 (Field Game) & 15 (Pharmecetical)
Leg 4 (3.40): 11 (Minding) & 13 (Nathra)
Leg 5 (4.15): 10 (Toy Story), 5 (Gulliver) & 6 (Hakeem)
Leg 6 (4.50): 7 (Swiss Range) & 1 (First Victory)
Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
1.50: Eleven of the last thirteen winners have carried weights of 9-2 or less, whilst four and five-year-olds have won the last eleven renewals between them. The facts and stats suggest that OASIS FANTASY, SLUNOVRAT and BAZOOKA should run well against their seven rivals. The three Placepot representatives I have called upon are listed in order of preference, the trio all qualifying via the weight and vintage trends. Last year's nominated overnight reserve won at 11/2 and should fate deal the same blow this time around, WATERSMEET (fourth in the race at 14/1 last year when nominated as my main selection) could prove to be the joker in the pack.
Favourite factor: Eight of the nineteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions during the study period, statistics which include three winners.
Newmarket record of course winners in the opening event:
2.25 (Dahlia Stakes): Four-year-olds have won ten renewals during the last fourteen years, with vintage representatives coming to the gig on a seven timer on this occasion. Sir Michael Stoute has won six of the last eight contests in which he has been represented, whereby the chance of CRYSTAL ZVEZDA is thoroughly respected, though fellow vintage raiders JAZZI TOP and ARABIAN QUEEN should also figure prominently. French raider USHERETTE is expected to outrun her attractive odds.
Favourite factor: Nine of the last twenty market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include four winners.
Newmarket record of course winners in the Dahlia Stakes:
3.00: Five-year-olds have won six of the last twelve renewals during which time, nine gold medallists have carried weights of 9-1 or less. A trio of five-year-olds line up this time around (17 runners - vintage representative are around 9/2 before the form book is consulted), the pick of which should prove to be NEW BIDDER and CAPTAIN BOB, taking the weight trend into account. FIELD GAME and PHARMACEUTICAL might best serve the four-year-old vintage (five victories in the last eight years) to best effect.
Favourite factor: Ten of the twenty three market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions (three winners) during the study period.
Newmarket record of course winners in the third contest on the card:
3.40 (1000 Guineas): 11 of the last 18 winners of the 1000 Guineas have been returned at 9/1 or more and the pick of the potential ‘outsiders’ in the field from my viewpoint this year are NATHRA and JET SETTING. The pair are listed in order of preference though whether they can beat the favourite (Minding) is another matter entirely. Aidan O’Brien (MINDING, ALICE SPRINGS and Ballydoyle) has saddled a winner and three placed horses in the 1000 Guineas within the last seven years, with eight other raiders having finished out of the frame. Of the others, LUMIERE looks sure to figure prominently.
Favourite factor: Ten of the nineteen market leaders have reached the frame during the study period (five winners). If you want to go further back to the last 28 years (29 market leaders), the stats are as follows: nine winners—six placed—fourteen unplaced. All three odds on favourites won during the extended study period, though the last of them prevailed back in 1996.
1000 Guineas draw factor in recent years:
13-11-2 (13 ran-good to firm)
4-14-3 (17 ran-god to firm)
7-13-11 (15 ran-good to firm)
2-7-9 (16 ran-good to soft)
16-4-3 (18 ran-good to firm)
18-15-17 (17 ran-good to soft)
8-2-3 (14 ran-good to firm)
3-7-11 (15 ran-good to firm)
16-5-14 (21 ran-good to firm)
11-9-3 (13 ran-soft)
21-14-8 (20 ran-good to firm)
10-17-2 (16 ran-good)
Newmarket record of course winners in the 1000 Guineas:
1/2--Mix And Mingle
4.15: Unusually for a race at the Guineas meeting at Newmarket, eleven different trainers have saddled a winner of this event in as many years which brings yours truly out in a rash, coupled with a positive twitch with no vintage/weight trends with which to work! Upwards and onward by offering the likes of TOY STORY (still involved in Wednesday's 'Lily Agnes' at Chester), GULLIVER (Hugo Palmer has waxed lyrical relating to his juveniles this season) and HAKEEM (well entered up) against the field. That said, it would be as well to take a glance at ROSE BERRY which you might not have done as a general rule of thumb, with trainer Chris Dwyer's juveniles hardly setting the world alight down the years. This time around however, Chris comes to the gig having saddled every one of his last five runners to winning effect. Last year, an unconsidered 25/1 outsider scored for good measure.
Favourite factor: 11 of the last 15 winners have scored at odds of 8/1 or less (including two favourites). 10 of the 17 market leaders secured toteplacepot positions during the period. Although eight renewals have passed since a successful market leader was recorded (2007), four of the last six winners have scored at a top price of 9/2.
4.50 'Pretty Polly': This Listed event is always an interesting race, though I very much doubt that we will witness anything to match Taghrooda's six length victory two years ago before John Gosden's brilliant filly went on to win the Epsom Oaks and the 'King George' at Ascot. John offers the green light to his Zamindar course winner SWISS RANGE, the trainer coming to the gig on a hat trick, given that Jazzi Top secured successive victories for the yard twelve months ago. Others to consider include FIRST VICTORY and TIPTREE (conqueror of Swiss Range last back end) in the toteplacepot finale.
Favourite factor: All eighteen winners during the study period have scored at 11/1 or less (eight winning favourites), whilst twelve of the twenty market leaders finished in the frame.
Newmarket record of course winners in the 'Pretty Polly':
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Newmarket card on Sunday:
5--John Gosden (5/16) at Newmarket this season - before Saturday's sport was contested)
5--Mark Johnston (1/7)
4--Aidan O'Brien (0/4)
3--Marco Botti (--)
3--David Elsworth (0/1)
3--Richard Hannon (1/15)
3--Hugo Palmer (1/4)
3--Saeed Bin Suroor (1/7)
2--Michael Bell (--)
2--Roger Charlton (--)
2--Ed Dunlop (0/7)
2--David Evans (--)
2--Richard Fahey (0/3)
2--Brian Meehan (0/1)
2--Sir Michael Stoute (1/7)
2--Stuart Williams (0/1)
+ 34 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
79 declared runners
Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Hamilton: £1,143.80 (7 favourites - No winners - 1 placed - 6 unplaced)
Salisbury: £17.50 (7 favourites - 2 winners - 3 placed - 2 unplaced)
I recall the £23,914.40 Placepot dividend (8 favourites - 2 winners - 1 placed - 5 unplaced) back in 1998, mainly because I snared a fifth of the dividend on the day! Sunday's meeting always looks slightly easier on paper than the previous day's sport but that often proves not to be the case from a Placepot perspective.