PLUMPTON – MAY 14
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £2,282.10 (6 favourites: 1 winner - 2 placed - 3 unplaced)
Sunday's Placepot permutation at Plumpton:
Leg 1 (2.15): 2 (Knocknanuss) & 4 (Rasasee)
Leg 2 (2.45): 6 (Bostin), 3 (Lime Street) & 4 (Romeo Americo)
Leg 3 (3.15): 2 (Venetian Lad), 7 (Killabraher Cross) & 3 (Smart Catch)
Leg 4 (3.45): 2 (Osgood) & 6 (Too Many Diamonds)
Leg 5 (4.15): 7 (Sunnytahliateigan) & 8 (Ding Ding)
Leg 6 (4.45): 5 (Little Windmill), 4 (Kingston) & 2 (Perfect Timing)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Sunday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
2.15: Five-year-olds have the best record in recent times having secured four of the last twelve contests, statistics which include the 25/1 gold medallist in 2013. The only vintage representative on parade here is JACKBLACK and Joshua Moore’s mount should figure prominently in this grade/company, though probably without winning the contest. That honour looks likely to be claimed by KNOCKNANUSS, providing that Gary Moore (see details below) has got his seven-year-old Irish import 95% fit following an absence from the track for the thick end of two years. The other worry (I guess) is that the Beneficial gelding has not raced on ground as firm as thus thus far but hailing from Ireland, you would not be surprised to read that fact! RASASEE showed decent fast ground form on the level which offers hope for connections.
Favourite factor: Ten of the 15 jollies have reached the frame (three winners), whilst 29 of the 38 available toteplacepot positions have been claimed by horses starting at odds of 8/1 or less. That said, the 2014 (Gary Moore trained) 1/3 market leader was not among them! Gary made amends by winning with one of the two 6/4 joint favourites two years ago, Gary's second victory in this event during the last nine years.
2.45: This is the first of five races which witness no less than 18 course winners at Plumpton on Sunday, well over a third of the list of declarations in total. Six of the last seven winners of this event have carried a maximum burden of eleven stones which might have offered hope for supporters of Kayfin, though her soft ground victory at Plumpton reduces enthusiasm this time around, especially as the relevant success was her only win to date following 25 assignments. More logical winners include BOSTIN, LIME STREET and ROMEO AMERICO. This is a tough ‘short field’ event to assess, a term which relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way and Placepot perspectives.
Favourite factor: Four of the eight favourites have finished in the frame (exact science), statistics which include two winners at 3/1 & 11/4. The last four winners have scored at 20/1-16/1-16/1-7/1.
Record of course winners in the second race:
2/6—The Game Is A Foot (good to soft & soft)
1/6—Romeo Americo (good to firm)
1/6—Bostin (good to firm)
3.15: This is another ‘short field’ teaser on the card and no mistake! Tony Carroll scored with his only (9/1) runner at Plumpton last season and it’s interesting to note that his two runners on the card are the only horses in the respective fields not to have won at the track. SMART CATCH is the relevant entry here though I would have held out more hope for the eleven-year-old had he had half a mile less to tackle. From a win perspective accordingly, I slightly prefer the likes of VENETIAN LAD and KILLABRAHER CROSS, not that I will be prizing money out from my wallet this afternoon once my Placepot wager has been placed.
Favourite factor: The four market leaders have finished second (claiming toteplacepot positions) at odds of 11/4, 7/2, 5/2 & 2/1 before last year’s 10/3 favourite went on the missing list.
Record of course winners in the third contest on the card:
1/2—Royals And Rebels (good to soft)
2/14—Venetian Lad (2 x good)
1/8—Frank N Fair (good)
3/18—Flugzeug (good – good to soft – good to firm)
1/6—Roparta Avenue (good)
2/8—Killabraher Cross (2 x good)
3.45: The only course winner (on good to firm ground for good measure) in the field is OSGOOD and like the lads and lasses who offered a trade press quote of 5/2 about Gary Moore’s raider, I am surprised/delighted to see 11/2 chalked up this morning. TOO MANY DIAMONDS has seemingly attracted all the overnight money, though I guess that is not too much of a surprise given that Dan Skelton has saddled 51 winners via a 25% strike rate since the end of February. That S/R is all the more impressive when we take into account the time of year, given the competitive Cheltenham and Aintree festivals during the study period. TAURIAN is the other potential winner in the field from my viewpoint.
Favourite factor: Five of the seven favourites have secured toteplacepot positions via six renewals to date, statistics which include three successful (7/2, 15/8 & 2/1) market leaders.
Record of course winners in the fourth event:
1/3—Osgood (good to firm)
4.15: Five-year-olds lead the six-year-olds 3-2 via six contests to date, with SUNNYTAHLIATEIGAN being the only younger horse in the line up on this occasion. Add the fact that the relevant trainer Ian Williams saddled last year’s winner increases confidence in David Noonan’s mount in a race which should not prove difficult to win. DING DING was third at 10/1 in another race on the card at the corresponding meeting last year and on offer at an even bigger price here, Sheena West’s course and distance winner is an alternative each way option if you don’t fancy the projected favourite. That option might prove appealing if the ‘dead eight’ field remains intact towards flag fall. OSSIE’S DANCER is the reserve nomination
Favourite factor: Five of the six favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions, statistics which include two (7/2 & 5/2) successful market leaders from a win perspective.
Record of course winners in the fifth race:
2/2—Ossie’s Dancer (2 x good)
3/9—Ding Ding (good – good to soft – soft)
4.45: A corker of a Placepot finale which will blow at least a third of the live Placepot units out of the water, irrespective of the result! With the last 15 winners all carrying weights of 11-9 or less, we could eliminate the top three (of just five) horses in the field if you share my self- confessed ‘anorak’ tendencies. The other two horses have plenty going for them anyway, especially with LITTLE WINDMILL having won two of his races at this venue under fast conditions. The reasons for supporting KINGSTON are slightly less obvious aside from the weight trend though that said, Tony Carroll is the relevant trainer whose positive Plumpton record I mentioned earlier on the card. With Jay Are probably needing this comeback run following two years off the track, PERFECT TIMING is added to the Placepot mix, mainly because this event would fall into the ‘win only’ category should a non-runner rear its ugly head.
Favourite factor: Three of the last 14 renewals of this toteplacepot finale have been won by market leaders. Seven of the 15 jollies have secured toteplacepot positions during the study period.
Record of course winners in the Placepot finale:
1/6—Gores Island (good)
1/1—Perfect Timing (good to firm)
1/1—Jay Are (good to soft)
2/3—Little Windmill (2 x good to firm)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Plumpton card on Sunday – followed by their ratios at the track last season + profits/losses accrued:
6 runners—Gary Moore (13/70 – Profit of 2 points)
3—Seamus Mullins (1/10 – loss of 15 points)
3—Daniel O’Brien (0/11)
2—Tony Carroll (1/1 – Profit of 9 points)
2—Zoe Davison (1/13 – loss of 3 points)
2—Diana Grissell (0/25)
2—Nicky Henderson (2/7 – loss of 3 points)
2—Mark Hoad (0/10)
2—Linda Jewell (3/26 – Profit of 12 points)
2—Neil King (3/18 – loss of 6 points)
2—Neil Mulholland (4/127 – loss of 16 points)
2—Sheena West (3/15 – Profit of 9 points)
2—Ian Williams (1/3 – Slight profit)
2—Steve Woodman (0/5)
+ 15 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
49 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Ludlow: £9.20 – 7 favourites – 5 winners & 2 placed