FAKENHAM – MAY 22
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2015: £849.70 (8 favourites: 1 winner - 1 placed - 6 unplaced)
Sunday's Placepot permutation at Fakenham:
Leg 1 (2.15): 5 (Little Windmill), 7 (Run Bob Run) & 3 (Sea The Spring)
Leg 2 (2.45): 3 (To Begin) & 5 (Lawless Island)
Leg 3 (3.20): 4 (Bob Chic), 5 (Milgen Bay) & 3 (Mercers Court)
Leg 4 (3.55): 9 (Princess Roania), 5 (Welluptoscratch) & 6 (Prayer Time)
Leg 5 (4.30): 1 (Willem) & 2 (Herons Heir)
Leg 6 (5.00): 6 (Social Climber) & 5 (Old Magic)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
2.10: Neil King has found it difficult this month to live up to his 27% strike rate in April but back at one of the venues that has served him well in the past (ratio of 9/59) in recent years, Neil could start the day off with a winner with beaten favourite LITTLE WINDMILL. Trevor Whelan's mount can atone for recent losses, with connections probably having most to fear from RUN BOB RUN and SEA THE SPRING.
Favourite factor: Last year's inaugural event produced horses which filled the frame at 33/1-14/1-7/2 which was partly responsible for the fine Placepot dividend, with the 5/2 favourite coming home in fifth place via eight finishers.
2.40: TO BEGIN appears to have a lot going for him here, especially with Charlie Mann having scored with three of his last four runners. Paul Maloney's mount has little to worry about in this grade/company and Charlie can extend the winning run with his only runner on the day. Charlie has no other entries for the foreseeable future, so now is the time to strike. LAWLESS ISLAND and DR BEAUJOLAIS might offer most resistance at the business end of the contest.
Favourite factor: Winning favourites were conspicuous by their absence since 2007 before one of the 4/1 joint favourites (in 2014) scored. Last year's 11/4 market leader revered to type by finishing out with the washing. Three of the last eight market leaders have finished in the frame (exact science).
3.15: Seven of the last ten winners have carried weights of 11-5 or more, with as many as three of the seven runners being eliminated via the weight trends. Two are easy to ignore, though MILGEN BAY is only 'bypassed' via a potential jockey claim. I might (conveniently) ignore the allowance on this occasion, the course and distance winner having BON CHIC. Trainer Dan Skelton boasts 8/29 stats at the course during the study period and it's worth noting that BOB CHIC was made a joint favourite in a competitive Cheltenham event in April. The form figures tell us that this is his season debut though in reality, just 38 days have passed since that unsuccessful sortie at Prestbury Park. MERCERS COURT completes my trio against the field.
Favourite factor: Two favourites have prevailed via the last nine renewals of this event during which time, five of the twelve market leaders have finished in the frame.
Record of course winners in the third race:
1/2--Bon Chic (good)
1/1--Milgen Bay (good to soft)
3.50: Four-year-olds have won three of the last four contests whereby respect is paid to the only vintage representative (wake up trainers) which is PRAYER TIME, albeit the Mark Tompkins raider unshipped the pilot at the first time of asking under this code. A winner off 63 on the level in March, Robert Dunne could go close aboard the Pastoral Pursuits raider if the partnership remains intact. Peter Bowen (PRINCESS ROANIA) has saddled three of his last eight runners to winning effect, whilst WELLUPTOSCRATCH is the other (fairly obvious) danger.
Favourite factor: Three of the five favourites to date secured two gold medals and one of the silver variety, with the last two (6/4 & 9/4) market leaders finishing out with the washing.
4.25: Lots of big stables were involved at the four day stage and the three that have offered green light to their respective raiders have decent enough records at the venue. David Pipe saddles WILLEM with an 8/15 ratio boast at the venue, though Dan Skelton (HERONS HEIR) has secured stats of 8/29 during the last five years. Oliver Sherwood completes the list with SALTO CHISCO, though Oliver's strike rate of 25% (4/16) appears moderate by comparison!
Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Fakenham card.
Record of course winners in the fifth event:
4.55: 17 of the 19 available toteplacepot positions in the finale have been secured by horses carrying weights of 11-5 or less, statistics which include all seven (6/1-5/1-9/2-11/4-11/4-9/4-7/4) winners. The pick of this year’s six relevant horses (includes one horse via a jockey claim) should prove to be SOCIAL CLIMBER, VODKA ISLAND and OLD MAGIC.
Favourite factor: Six of the eight favourites have finished in the money thus far, statistics which include three winners.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Fakenham card on Sunday:
4--Neil King (9/59 at Fakenham during the last five years)
4--Tim Vaughan (8/52)
3--Dan Skelton (8/29)
2--John Cornwall (4/44)
2--John Flint (3/8)
2--Richard Ford (--)
2--Kevin Frost (0/1)
2--Donald McCain (0/9)
2--Oliver Sherwood (4/16)
2--Bill Turner (--)
+ 21 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
46 declared runners
Corresponding Placepot dividend last year:
Nottingham: £8.60 (7 favourites - 1 winner - 5 placed - 1 unplaced)
Trainers who saddled winners at the first meeting of the season on May 3rd - and their runners today:
Charlie Mann (4/1) - 1 runner: To Begin (2.40) - Charlie has saddled three of his last four runners to winning effect
John Flint (7/2**) - 2 runners: Run Bob Run (2.10) & Taroum (4.55) - John boasts 3/8 stats at the venue during the last five years