FONTWELL – MAY 28
Last year's corresponding Placepot dividend:
2016: £20.20 (7 favourites - 2 winners - 4 placed - 1 unplaced)
Sunday's Placepot permutation at Fontwell:
Leg 1 (1.55): 2 (Decimus), 5 (Night Generation) & 1 (Kayla)
Leg 2 (2.25): 1 (Code Of Law), 3 (Goonjim) & 4 (Denny Kerrell)
Leg 3 (2.55): 5 (The Wicket Chicken) & 4 (Welluptoscratch)
Leg 4 (3.30): 2 (Kilfinichen Bay), 3 (Caulfields Venture) & 5 (Set List)
Leg 5 (4.05): 5 (Londonia), 3 (Krystal Hart) & 1 (Midnight Jitterbug)
Leg 6 (4.35): 1 (Venetian Lad) & 2 (Celtic Tune)
Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Sunday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
1.55: Course winner DECIMUS is attractively priced at 8/1 by the trade press guys and as a seven time winner on all types of ground, Jeremy Scott’s raider is the first name on the Placepot team sheet. The ground might lack enough moisture in the ground for Ballyheigue Bay, whereby stable companion NIGHT GENERATION is preferred alongside KAYLA.
Favourite factor: The two gold medallists to date have snared gold and bronze medals alongside Placepot positions.
Record of course winners in the opening race:
2/5—Ballyheigue Bay (good & soft)
2.25: Five of the seven winners thus far have carried a minimum burden of eleven stones which leaves just two horses to assess if we take the stats seriously, given that the other ‘qualifier’ via the weight trend is eliminated by the jockey’s potential claim. Neil Mulholland boasts an impressive 27% strike rate at the track during the last five years whereby CODE OF LAW is the call over GOONJIM. Neil secured a 362/1 treble on the card last year for good measure, notwithstanding a 16/1 gold medallist the year before! Now and then however we have to waver a little regarding the trends, especially with DENNY KERRELL sitting just 16 ounces adrift of the ‘superior’ handicap mark.
Favourite factor: Four of the seven favourites have finished in the frame, statistics which include three winners.
2.55: Five and six-year-olds have both snared three of the seven renewals between them which suggests that THE WICKET CHICKEN might have the edge over SEVEN NATION ARMY. The latter named raider has won here at Fontwell but not over timber, something he has yet to put right via no less than 16 relevant assignments. THE WICKET CHICKEN is another Mulholland raider boasting genuine claims on the card. David Arbuthnot has been known to snare swag in this type of race before now and WELLUPTOSCRATCH could live up to his name in this grade/company.
Favourite factor: Favourites have won five of the last six renewals, whilst six market leaders have finished in the frame via seven contests. The only 'jolly' to miss out was a Paul Nicholls favourite which was sent off at the shortest price of all the favourites at 4/11.
Record of course winner in the third event:
1/1—Seven Nation Army (soft)
3.30: Even though only five runners have been declared, this could arguably be considered the toughest race on the card, especially from a Placepot perspective given the nature of its ‘short field’ status. Charlie Longsdon has saddled three of his last five runners to winning effect and in declaring KILFINICHEN BAY, Charlie runs his only inmate during the whole of the Bank Holiday weekend. Emma Lavelle saddles two horses and given that Keltus (Paul Nicholls) will represent anything but good value in Placepot terms, I’ll opt for Emma’s pair CAULFIELDS VENTURE and SET LIST to add to Kilfinichen Bay in my Placepot mix. New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses qualify from each way and Placepot perspectives.
Favourite factor: Only two of the five favourites have gained Placepot positions via gold and silver medals to date. That said, nine of the ten available Placepot positions have been claimed by horses sent off at a top price of 7/1.
Fontwell record of course winners in the fourth event on the card:
1/3—Caulfields Venture (good)
1/2—Adam De Breteau (good)
4.05: Charlie Deutsch negates three of the six pound penalty given to LONDONIA via his useful claim, with Graeme McPherson’s only runner on the card fancied to follow up the Towcester win successfully. KRYSTAL HART is slightly preferred to MIDNIGHT JITTERBUG as the main threat to the selection.
Favourite factor: Two of the three market leaders have claimed Placepot positions, statistics which include one successful (9/2**) favourite.
4.35: VENETIAN LAD is well into the veteran stage now but as his record at Fontwell shows below, the twelve-year-old can rarely be dismissed at this venue. I expect CELTIC TUNE to flatter to deceive from a win perspective as is usually the case, though his Placepot chance is there for all to see. FINISH THE STORY is offered up as the overnight reserve.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 5/2 favourite snared a Placepot position behind the 16/1 winner.
Fontwell record of course winners in the Placepot finale:
7/35—Venetian Lad (4 x soft – 2 x good to soft + good)
1/8--Flugzeug (good to firm)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Fontwell card on Sunday – followed by their five year ratios at the track + profits/losses accrued:
6—Seamus Mullins (10/106 – loss of 10 points)
4—Chris Gordon (35/229 – loss of 14 points)
4—Neil Mulholland (29/106 – Profit of 21 points)
4—Jeremy Scott (6/43 – loss of 18 points)
3—Alexandra Dunn (5/33 – loss of 11 points)
2—Nick Gifford (6/54 – loss of 15 points)
2—Emma Lavelle (6/30 – Profit of 8 points)
2—Gary Moore (41/261 (loss of 14 points)
2—Helen Nelmes (1/31 – loss of 14 points)
2—Daniel O’Brien (1/20 – loss of 11 points)
2—Jonjo O’Neill (10/39 – Profit of 3 points)
2—John O’Shea (3/18 – loss of 4 points)
+ 23 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
58 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Kelso: £12.70 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced
Uttoxeter: £1,117.50 – 6 favourites – 3 winners & 3 unplaced