NEWMARKET – MAY 7
Corresponding toteplacepot dividends from the last six years:
2016: £190.20 (6 favourites – 3 winners & 3 unplaced)
2015: £166.60 (6 favourites: No winners - 4 placed - 2 unplaced)
2014: £272.40 (8 favourites: 2 winners - 3 placed - 3 unplaced)
2013: £539.90 (7 favourites: 1 winners - 1 placed - 5 unplaced)
2012: £348.70 (7 favourites: No winners - 2 placed - 5 unplaced)
2011: £2,715.70 (10 favourites: No winners - 3 placed - 7 unplaced)
Average dividend: £705.58 - 44 favourites in total - 6 winners - 13 placed - 25 unplaced
Sunday's Placepot permutation at Newmarket:
Leg 1 (1.50): 9 (Banditry), 11 (Going Up), 1 (Frontiersman) & 10 (Beardwood)
Leg 2 (2.20): 9 (Somehow) & 5 (Nezwaah)
Leg 3 (2.55): 8 (Captain Colby), 16 (Hakam), 14 (East Street Review) & 10 (Swift Approval)
Leg 4 (3.35): 10 (Rhododendron), 2 (Daban) & 4 (Fair Eva)
Leg 5 (4.10): 2 (Kit Marlowe) & 3 (Qaaraat)
Leg 6 (4.45): 1 (Astronomy’s Choice) & 2 (Horseplay)
Suggested stake:384 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Sunday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
1.50: Twelve of the last fourteen winners have carried weights of 9-2 or less, whilst four and five-year-olds have won the last twelve renewals between them. The facts and stats suggest that BANDRITRY, GOING UP and BEARDWOOD should run well against their ten rivals, all on offer in double figures at the time of writing. The three Placepot representatives I have called upon are listed in order of preference, the trio all qualifying via the weight and vintage trends. The reserve nomination is awarded to FRONTIERSMAN. Last year's first named runner (Oasis Fantasy) won at 7/1.
Favourite factor: Eight of the twenty market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions during the study period, statistics which include three winners.
Record of course winners in the opening event:
1/1—Frontiersman (good to firm)
1/2—Mustajeer (good to soft)
2.20 (Dahlia Stakes): Four-year-olds have won eleven renewals during the last fifteen years, with vintage representatives coming to the gig on an eight timer on this occasion. The pick of this year’s relevant sextet will hopefully prove to be SOMEHOW and NEZWAAH. Sir Michael Stoute has won six of the last nine contests though unfortunately, the stable is not represented today.
Favourite factor: Nine of the last twenty one market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include four winners.
Record of course winners in the Dahlia Stakes:
2/5—Muffri’Ha (good & good to firm)
2.55: Five-year-olds have won six of the last thirteen renewals during which time, ten gold medallists have carried weights of 9-1 or less. A trio of five-year-olds line up this time around (15 runners - vintage representatives are 4/1 before the form book is consulted), the threesome being listed in order of preference as CAPTAIN COLBY, HAKAM and SWIFT APPROVAL. The latter named pair also hail from the ‘superior’ sector of the weights though that said, CAPTAIN COLBY only sits 16 ounces above the weight barrier. The chance of EAST STREET REVIEW in the contest is also respected.
Favourite factor: Ten of the twenty four market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions (three winners) during the study period.
Record of the course winners in the third contest on the card:
2/3—Eastern Impact (good to firm & good)
1/1—Captain Colby (good to firm)
1/2—Gunmetal (good to firm)
3.35 (1000 Guineas): 11 of the last 19 winners of the 1000 Guineas have been returned at 9/1 or more and the pick of the potential ‘outsiders’ in the field from my viewpoint this year are Poet’s Vanity and Talaayeb. That said, punters have enjoyed better luck of late and once again, fancied runners are taken to dominate at the business end of proceedings with RHODODENDRON, DABAN and FAIR EVA having reached the race safely. DABAN is the only filly of the three to have proved herself already this season though that said, John Gosden’s raider will have to settle into her race, offering better behaviour than when running to freely despite winning the ‘Nell Gwyn’ in the style of a progressive filly.
Favourite factor: Eleven of the twenty market leaders have reached the frame during the study period (six winners). If you want to go further back to the last 29 years (30 market leaders), the stats are as follows: ten winners—six placed—-fourteen unplaced. All three odds on favourites won during the extended study period, though the last of them prevailed back in 1996.
1000 Guineas draw factor in recent years:
8-15-3 (16 ran-good)
13-11-2 (13 ran-good to firm)
4-14-3 (17 ran-god to firm)
7-13-11 (15 ran-good to firm)
2-7-9 (16 ran-good to soft)
16-4-3 (18 ran-good to firm)
18-15-17 (17 ran-good to soft)
8-2-3 (14 ran-good to firm)
3-7-11 (15 ran-good to firm)
16-5-14 (21 ran-good to firm)
11-9-3 (13 ran-soft)
21-14-8 (20 ran-good to firm)
10-17-2 (16 ran-good)
Newmarket record of course winners in the 1000 Guineas:
1/1—Daban (good to firm)
1/2—Kilmah (good to firm)
1/2—Poet’s Vanity (good to firm)
1/1—Rhododendron (good to firm)
1/1—Talaayeb (goor to firm)
1/2—Urban Fox (good to firm)
4.10: Unusually for a race at the Guineas meeting at Newmarket, twelve different trainers have saddled a winner of this event in as many years which brings yours truly out in a rash, coupled with a positive twitch with no vintage/weight trends with which to work! Upwards and onward by offering the likes of KIT MARLOWE (Mark Johnston’s February foal has received plenty of overnight support) and the only ‘experienced’ filly in the field, namely QAARAAT. Ed Dunlop trains the latter named raider, with Ed having secured a 21/1 double on the corresponding card twelve months ago.
Favourite factor: 12 of the last 16 winners have scored at odds of 8/1 or less (including three favourites). 11 of the 18 market leaders secured toteplacepot positions during the period. Five of the last seven winners have scored at a top price of 9/2.
4.45 'Pretty Polly': John Gosden comes to the party on a four timer and there is every chance that the popular trainer will score with ANSTONOMY’S CHOICE, one of just two stable representatives on the card on Sunday. HORSEPLAY appears to be the logical danger in the Placepot finale.
Favourite factor: All Nineteen winners during the study period have scored at 11/1 or less (nine winning favourites), whilst thirteen of the twenty one market leaders finished in the frame.
Record of the course winners in the ‘Pretty Polly’:
1/1—Astronomy’s Choice (good to firm)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Newmarket card (two or more) on Sunday
8 runners—Mark Johnston
3—Saeed Bin Suroor
+ 24 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
73 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Hamilton: £191.90 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced