CHELTENHAM - NOVEMBER 13
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2015: £79.90 (7 favourites - 4 winners & 3 unplaced)
Sunday's Placepot permutation at Cheltenham:
Leg 1 (12.45): 4 (Moon Dancer) & 5 (Movewiththetimes)
Leg 2 (1.20): 5 (Le Prezien), 1 (Three Stars) & 3 (Some Plan)
Leg 3 (1.55): 8 (Special Tiara), 7 (Simonsig) & 3 (Fox Norton)
Leg 4 (2.30): 5 (Winter Escape), 15 (Song Light), 6 (North Hill Harvey) & 11 (Wolf Of Windlesham)
Leg 5 (3.05): 13 (Chic Theatre), 7 (Chebsey Beau) & 16 (Behind Time)
Leg 6 (3.40): 5 (Brahms De Clermont) & 4 (Boreham Bill)
Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Sunday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
12.45: 15 of the last 16 renewals have been secured by four and five-year-olds, with vintage representatives around the 8/11 mark to extend the edge this time around before form in taken into consideration. That would normally be the end of vintage 'activity' given the circumstances, though it’s worth noting that five-year-olds have secured seven renewals during the last decade, with this year’s relevant three raiders coming to the gig on a four-timer on behalf of the runners born in 2011. What About Carlo was an unpredictable type on the level, let alone under the NH code and Eve Johnson Houghton’s ‘newcomer’ certainly adds interest to what is already an intriguing contest. MOON DANCER demands plenty of respect in a race which might otherwise have been dictated by the unbeaten pair MOVEWITHTHETIMES and KEEP IN LINE. This is a tremendous start to Sunday’s card with MOON DANCER (winner of four of his five races – second at the Punchestown Festival in a Grade 1 contest) one of the stars on parade.
Favourite factor: 11 of the last 19 favourites have finished in the frame, statistics which include six successful market leaders.
Record of the course winners in the opening event:
2/2—Moon Racer (good & good to soft)
2/2—Ballyandy (good & good to soft)
1.20: Paul Nicholls has won eight of the last seventeen renewals, with the trainer coming into this year’s race looking for his sixth winner in the race in the last nine years. LE PREZIEN represents the Ditcheat based trainer this time around with Henry de Bromhead’s two Irish raiders probably offering most resistance at the business end proceedings. The official ratings suggest there is nothing between THREE STARS and SOME PLAN, though the pair is listed in order preference, if only because of ‘consistency’. LE PREZIEN is expected to thwart the Irish challenge however, especially as Paul’s five-year-old raider is an outrageously consistent performer having finished ‘in the two’ via his last seven assignments.
Favourite factor: 11 favourites have won during the last 19 years, whilst the biggest priced winner was returned at 10/1. 16 of the 19 market leaders finished in the frame.
1.55: It was the turn of stable companion Sprinter Sacre to raise the roof twelve months ago and now we witness the reappearance of SIMONSIG, albeit Nicky Henderson’s was rated no less than 28 pounds inferior by the official assessor, gauging each individual at the top of their respective careers! Taking into account that SIMONSIG comes to the race a year older than was the case for last year’s winner, I’m bound to suggest that connections of SPECIAL TIARA, FOX NORTON and TOP GAMBLE will not be as fearful as those who were opposing Sprinter Sacre last year. The NH crowd are (thankfully) an emotional bunch and plenty of tears will flow if SIMONSIG proves up to the task. Yet another intriguing race on a sensational card, particularly with MODULE also returning to action on behalf of the red hot Tom George yard. That said, the ground might be a little on the lively side for Module in this company/grade.
Favourite factor: Six of the seven market leaders (three winners and three silver medallists) have finished in the frame to date.
Record of the course winners in the third contest on the card:
2/4—Fox Norton (2 x good)
1/4—Module (good to soft)
2/2—Simonsig (good & soft)
2.30: Five-year-olds have won nine of the last seventeen renewals with relevant entries WINTER ESCAPE and NORTH HILL HARVEY making their seasonal debuts, connections having much to look forward to from my viewpoint. An excellent judge assures me that I should not overlook the chance of SONG LIGHT who (noticeably) was given a pipe opener on the level less than three weeks ago. WOLF OF WINDLESHAM could be another to outrun his odds if the ground holds up on the third day. This quartet are speculative types to offer against some rivals who will hold more prominent positions in the market.
Favourite factor: Four clear market leaders have obliged during the last 19 years alongside one joint favourite, whilst 11 of the 23 jollies have reached the frame.
Record of the course winners in the ‘Greatwood Hurdle’:
1/2--North Hill Harvey (soft)
1/3—Wolf Of Windlesham (good to soft)
3.05: David Pipe has secured three of the last five renewals of this event and his entry CHIC THEATRE is my win and place call on the entire card. David dominated the Sunday of the three day fixture three years ago when securing a 5,995/1 four-timer with winners returned at 40/1-12/1-7/2-6/4. That will not be the case this year however as CHIC THEATRE is the only other runner from the stable accompanying Moon Racer to the course. I am willing to forgive his seasonal debut effort at Towcester when CHIC THEATRE was a well beaten favourite but let’s face it, not every horse acts over the tough circuit, whilst the ground would have been testing enough for David’s six-year-old. CHEBSEY BEAU and BEHIND TIME are other unexposed types that could figure prominently at decent prices.
Favourite factor: Four clear market leaders and a joint favourite have won during the last eleven years during which time, ten of the thirteen jollies have secured toteplacepot positions, a truly wonderful record given the competitive nature of this contest.
Record of the course winner in the fifth race:
1/2--Altesse De Guye (good to soft)
3.40: Four-year-olds have claimed 12 of the 21 available toteplacepot positions thus far but that said, five-year-olds have secured three of the seven contests from a win perspective. I'm opting for a representative from each vintage in BRAHMS DE CLERMONT and BOREHAM BILL, though much could change by the time I scribble down my Placepot permutation. It would be nice to witness Ben Pauling’s latter name raider scoring after the disappointing scenario with Barters Hill on Friday. The sport has a strange way of offering compensation to connections of horses who have been injured and few would deny Ben closing out three great days of racing with a victory.
Favourite factor: The first two winners scored at 25/1 and 16/1 before a pair of 7/2 joint favourites filled the forecast positions three years ago. Three of the six market leaders have finished in the frame, given that the toteplacepot finale reverted back to type last year when the 13/8 favourite finished out with the washing.
Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:
1/1—Brahms De Clermont (good)
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Cheltenham card on Sunday followed by their 5 year record at the course with profits/losses accrued to level stakes – Stats accurate up to and including Friday’s results:
5 runners—Nicky Henderson (31/322 – loss of 144 points)
5—Nigel Twiston-Davies (24/215 (loss of 70 points)
4—Paul Nicholls (49/355 – Profit of 22 points)
4—Ben Pauling (1/24 – loss of 17 points)
3—Henry de Bromhead (1/41 – loss of 34 points)
3—Martin Keighley (9/81 – loss of 11 points)
3—Neil Mulholland (8/51 – loss of 2 points)
3—Dan Skelton (8/74 – loss of 29 points)
2—Harry Fry (9/54 – loss of 5 points)
2—Tom George (5/85 – loss of 46 points)
2—Alan King (15/144 – loss of 6 points)
2—Sophie Leech (0/17)
2—Seamus Mullins (0/8)
2—Fergal O’Brien (10/83 – Profit of 41 points)
2—Jonjo O’Neill (18/177 – loss of 29 points)
2—David Pipe (26/232 – slight loss)
2—Colin Tizzard (7/126 – loss of 70 points)
2—Tim Vaughan (0/84)
+ 24 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
74 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Fontwell: £169.50 – 6 favourites – 5 winners & 1 unplaced