EXETER - NOVEMBER 20
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2015: £52.70 (7 favourites - 1 winner - 4 placed - 2 unplaced)
Sunday's Placepot permutation at Exeter:
Leg 1 (12.45): 3 (A Plein Temps), 1 (Muffins For Tea), 12 (Precious Ground) & 8 (Shoofly Milly)
Leg 2 (1.20): 2 (Beforeall), 3 (The Italian Yob) & 10 (Wizards Bridge)
Leg 3 (1.55): 7 (The Eaglehasdlanded), 8 (Vieux Lille) & 5 (Private Malone)
Leg 4 (2.25): 9 (Last Shot), 5 (Crickel Wood) & 3 (Walk In The Mill)
Leg 5 (3.00): 1 (Flying Tiger) & 9 (Tyrell)
Leg 6 (3.30): 2 (On The Road) & 11 (Withy Mills)
Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Sunday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
12.45: Six and eight-year-olds have dominated five of the six renewals to date with the younger set leading 3-2, whilst horses carrying 11-1 or more have won the same ratio of contests. To be entirely honest, I treat vintage stats far less seriously when horses reach six or more but that said, I still report my findings as I don’t believe in coincidences in racing. The media ‘experts’ still try to argue that it “all depends where the pace is in sprint events” (the laziest comment imaginable), even when 100% of results have favoured the low/high stalls down the years. Truth be told, most of these ‘experts’ are just too lazy to put the night shifts in, pure and simple! Upwards and onward in positive mode by suggesting that three of the relevant vintage raiders form my ‘short list’, namely MUFFINS FOR TEA, A PLEIN TEMPS and PRECIOUS GROUND. The overnight reserve nomination is awarded to SHOOFLY MILLY.
Favourite factor: Three of the six favourites thus far have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include one (11/2) winner.
Record of the course winners in the opening event:
1/8—Precious Ground (heavy)
2/5—The Clyda Rover (good & soft)
1.20: BEFOREALL is the first name on the team sheet with the ground likely to be really testing by the time that flag fall comes around. The weather forecast is bleak overnight in the south-west with rain seemingly arriving by late Saturday afternoon, continuing though to around eight o’clock in the morning. BEFOREALL lacks a recent run, or the eight-year-old would have been a really strong each way selection. Others of interest include THE ITALIAN YOB and WIZARDS BRIDGE. The eye is also attracted to DESERT JOE who is one of the least exposed runners in the field, representing Alan King who has won with two of his four runners at Haldon this season.
Favourite factor: Three favourites of the four market leaders have missed out on Placepot positions via three renewals to date.
Record of the course winners in the second race on the card:
1/6—The Italian Yob (heavy)
1/5—Wizards Bridge (soft)
1/3—Cailleach Annie (good)
1.55: Philip Hobbs has saddled the winner of both renewals thus far and in VIEUX LILLE, the “master trainer” has a decent representative in attempting to land the hat trick. That said, THE EAGLEHASLANDED was withdrawn from a better race last weekend and the Paul Nicholls raider demands respect, arguably alongside PRIVATE MALONE who will appreciate the slow ground, bringing rivals back to him as he gallops through the mud at the business end of proceedings.
Favourite factor: Both (8/11 & 5/6) favourites have finished second though because one of the contest was of the ‘win only’ variety, just one Placepot position has been gained.
Record of the course winners in the third event:
1/7—Absolute Bygones (heavy)
2/4—The Eaglehaslanded (good to firm & soft)
3/3—Vieux Lille (2 x heavy & good)
2.25: LAST SHOT is the latest Venetia Williams to reappear following a lengthy absence. Venetia’s four time winner has not scored on anything worse than yielding conditions but horses who fail to act in this ground in Venetia’s care are few and far between. Keep an eye on the non-runners board during the morning. CRICKEL WOOD and WALK IN THE MILL are others to peruse over your favourite late night tipple/Sunday morning brunch.
Favourite factor: Six of the eleven market leaders have finished in the frame (exact science) though just one of the last eight contests has been won by a returned favourite.
Record of the course winners in the fourth race:
1/1—Last Shot (good to soft)
3.00: Giving upwards of seven pounds to this field will be a tough ask but as a winner under “very soft” conditions already and with Richard Johnson booked to ride, FLYING TIGER could be one of the safer options from a Placepot perspective. Alan King’s Teofilo newcomer TYRELL was a consistent type on the level, having finished ‘in the three’ on his last five assignments and you just know that Alan’s method of bringing flat horses into ‘timberland’ is almost second to none.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 11/8 favourite duly obliged.
3.30: I have only got a couple of options in my Placepot permutation, having used up plenty of selections earlier on the card. I am convinced that this meeting will produce a really good Placepot dividend and if we can make it through to the later legs intact, there will be a chance to ‘lay off’ from a place perspective on the exchanges which should at least ensure that we don’t lose money on the day. ON THE ROAD and WITHY MILLS are burdened with my Placepot picks as darkness descends on the afternoon but hopefully, not on the day from a financial viewpoint.
Favourite factor: The two market leaders have secured gold and silver medals whilst gaining Placepot positions.
Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:
1/1—On The Road (soft)
1/6—Brave Deed (soft)
2/4—Withy Mills (good & good to soft)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Exeter card on Sunday – followed by this season’s stats at the track + profits/losses accrued:
4 runners—Colin Tizzard (0/4)
3—Harry Fry (0/3)
3—Alan King (2/4 – Profit of 5 points)
3—Dr Richard Newland (0/1)
3—Jonjo O’Neill (0/5)
3—Jackie Du Plessis (0/2)
3—Jamie Snowden (1/4 – Profit of 1 point)
3—Nick Williams 0/1)
3—Robert Walford (1/5 – slight loss)
3—Evan Williams (No runners)
2—Kevin Bishop (0/1)
2—Alexandra Dunn (1/2 – Profit of 15 points)
2—Johnny Farrelly (1/4 – Profit of 5 points)
2—Jimmy Frost (0/11)
2—Sue Gardner (0/4)
2—Mark Gillard (1/6 – loss of 1 point)
2—Nigel Hawke (1/4 – slight loss)
2—Philip Hobbs (3/12 – loss of 4 points)
2—Charlie Longsdon (No runners)
2—Neil Mulholland (0/2)
2—Anabel K Murphy (No runners)
2—Paul Nicholls (4/9 – loss of 1 point)
2—Henry Oliver (0/1)
2—David Pipe (1/15 – loss of 9 points)
2—Jeremy Scott (1/9 – loss of 6 points)
2—Venetia Williams (No runners)
2—Richard Woollacott (0/5)
+ 24 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
89 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Uttoxeter: £128.80 – 7 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 4 unplaced