LEICESTER - NOVEMBER 27
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2015: £441.50 (6 favourites - 1 winners - 2 placed - 3 unplaced)
Sunday's Placepot permutation at Leicester:
Leg 1 (1.00): 1 (Forgotten Gold) & 2 (Caulfields Venture)
Leg 2 (1.35): 6 (Trapper Peak), 2 (Istimraar) & 7 (Honour Promise)
Leg 3 (2.05): 7 (Rebel Beat), 11 (Westendorf) & 5 (One Forty Seven)
Leg 4 (2.40): 4 (Kassis) & 2 (Midnight Gem)
Leg 5 (3.10): 4 (Bally Lagan) & 1 (Unify)
Leg 6 (3.40): 4 (Peruvian Bleu), 2 (Rocklander) & 1 (Dominada)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Sunday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
1.00: There should not be a great deal to choose between FORGOTTEN GOLD and CAULFIELDS VENTURE and the pair are obvious contenders from a Placepot perspective in this ‘win only’ contest. It’s just a case of hoping that the horse with the least Placepot units prevails.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 15/8 favourite finished out of the Placepot positions in a ‘short field’ contest. New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races, in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way/Placepot perspectives.
1.35: Seven-year-olds have won five of the twelve renewals during the last fourteen years, whilst nine of the last ten winners having carried a maximum burden of 11-3. TRAPPER PEAK boasts ticks in both of the relevant boxes and is the first name on the team sheet ahead of stable companion ISTIMRAAR and HONOUR PROMISE.
Favourite factor: Four clear market leaders and one joint favourite have scored during the study period. 11 of the 13 favourites have secured toteplacepot positions including last year’s 8/13 marke tleader, though a 40/1 chance actually won the contest!
2.05: Five-year-olds have won eight of the last twelve renewals, with REBEL BEAT preferred to WESTENDORF of the five relevant entries on this occasion. If the vintage raiders fail to deliver the goods this time around, ONE FORTY SEVEN could be the answer.
Favourite factor: Seven clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won this race via 15 renewals during the last 17 years. 12 of the 16 jollies have finished in the frame. All 15 winners started at odds of 17/2 or less during the study period.
2.40: Seven-year-olds have won two of the three renewals to date, with KASSIS hopefully improving the ratio here. MIDNIGHT GEM is feared most ahead of CATCHTHEMOONLIGHT. I have to take a watching brief with Lucinda Russell’s latter named raider returning after ‘unseating’ last time out.
Favourite factor: Three of the four market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include a successful 7/2 joint favourite via three renewals.
3.10: Robin Dickin has his team in better form now whereby beaten favourite BALLY LAGAN is worth another chance in this grade/company. The three pound claim of Harry Cobden is tantamount to ‘theft’ from my viewpoint and the rising star has a chance of riding another winner aboard UNIFY.
Favourite factor: Two of the four market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions having finished second in their respective events.
Record of the course winners in the fifth race:
1/2—Larkhill (good to firm)
1/4—Peak Seasons (good)
3.40: PERUVIEN BLEU deserved to win after a number of decent efforts and the confidence gained from that success could lead to the four-year-old ‘doubling up’ here, chiefly at the expense of ROCKLANDER and DOMINADA.
Favourite factor: The inaugural 6/4 favourite snared a toteplacepot position when finished second behind the 6/1 winner, before last year’s 7/2 favorute prevailed.
Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Leicester card on Sunday – followed by their five year stats at the track and Profits/losses to level stakes:
3 runners—Tom George (12/36 – Profit of 21 points)
2—Emma Baker (2/3 – Profit of 4 points)
2—David Dennis (1/5 – level)
2—Robin Dickin (0/2)
2—Alexandra Dunn (1/5 – loss of 1 point)
2—Mick Easterby (0/2)
2—Brian Ellison (1/6 – level)
2—Charlie Longsdon (4/17 – Profit of 5 points)
2—Jonjo O’Neill (2/42 – loss of 33 points)
2—Dave Roberts (0/2)
2—Nick Williams (3/8 – Profit of 10 points)
2—Venetia Williams (10/37 – loss of 4 points)
+ 30 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
55 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Carlisle: £25.10 – 6 favourites – 4 winners -1 placed – 1 unplaced