KEMPTON (NH) - OCTOBER 16
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2015: £35.30 (6 favourites - 4 winners & 2 unplaced)
Sunday's Placepot permutation at Kempton:
Leg 1 (2.00): 2 (Lord Huntingdon) & 1 (Cliffs Of Dover)
Leg 2 (2.30): 5 (Raven’s Tower), 4 (Tindaro) & 11 (Lemon’s Gent)
Leg 3 (3.05): 1 (Black Corton) & 2 (Taper Tantrum)
Leg 4 (3.35): 4 (Shady Glen), 5 (Cowards Close) & 1 (Days Ahead)
Leg 5 (4.10): 6 (My Tent Or Yours) & 5 (Hargam)
Leg 6 (4.45): 1 (Prince Khurrum), 2 (After Hours) & 5 (Trojan Star)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Sunday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page – includes last season’s stats for all represented trainers on the card for Sunday
2.00: Alan King has won this event with his last five runners in the contest, whereby LORD HUNTINGDON demands to be the first name on the team sheet, seemingly with plenty in hand of CLIFFS OF DOVER who won at Wincanton on Friday. The ground will not be as quick here however and there has to be a doubt if Paul Nicholls will saddle the latter named raider just two days later.
Favourite factor: 12 of the 15 favourites have secured toteplacepot positions (eight winners) via 12 renewals. Potential investors need to tread carefully however (as told seven years ago when a 2/5 favourite was beaten), as horses have been beaten at odds of 1/4--2/5--4/9--4/6 in recent seasons.
2.30: If you care to look down at last year’s Kempton stats, David Simcock’s record reads well enough, especially as his raider RAVEN’S TOWER only has two horses ‘inferior’ to him in terms of the forecast betting in the trade press. This race will not take a great deal of winning and David Bass could ride a decent priced winner on a quiet day of racing. Connections might have most to fear from Paul Webber’s two inmates, namely TINDARO and LEMON’S GENT. The overnight reserve nomination is awarded to NEXT SENSATION.
Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Kempton card.
Record of the course winner in the field:
3.05: Paul Nicholls has got his team firing on all cylinders now and with BLACK CORTON being his only ‘certain’ runner on the card, Paul’s Laverock gelding is fancied to beat TAPER TANTRUM, despite Michael Bell’s representative being unbeaten in two stats under the NH code thus far.
Favourite factor: 11 of the 14 favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions to date (six winners). The biggest priced winner was returned at 11/2 before a 12/1 gold medallist reared its ugly head to gold medal effect four years ago.
3.35: Seven of the last eight winners have carried weights of 11-5 or more which eliminates the bottom two horses in the handicap. That leaves just five runners to assess if we take the trend seriously, with SHADY GLEN, COWARDS CLOSE and DAYS AHEAD appealling more than the other pair in the ‘superior’ sector of the handicap.
Favourite factor: Although favourites have won seven of the 16 renewals since the turn of the Millennium, just five of the other 13 market leaders have additionally secured toteplacepot positions.
Record of the course winner in the fourth event on the card:
1/3—Best Boy Barney (good)
4.10: Even Paul Nicholls would not deny that Nicky Henderson rules this part of the country, with the Lambourn maestro having been nigh unbeatable year on year as far as the leading trainer at the Sunbury circuit is concerned. Pretenders have come and gone but nobody quite matches the knack of sending the right horses to contest the races at this course. As if to prove the point, this is a valuable race (which The New One has dominated in recent years) in which Nicky has a strangle hold this time arounds having declared MY TENT OR YOURS and HARGAM.
Favourite factor: Eight of the last thirteen favourites have won, whilst the other five gold medallists were returned at 7/4, 2/1, 11/4, 9/1 and 25/1.
Record of the course winner in the feature event on Sunday:
1/1—My Tent Or Yours (soft)
4.45: Just eleven pounds separate the five horses in the last event from a Placepot perspective and I have three options, given that some of the races at the meeting appear to be ‘two horse events’. Donald McCain is another trainer who is enjoying a good run of form and though I would not back his representative from a win perspective, PRINCE KHURRUM boasts obvious Placepot claims. AFTER HOURS and TROJAN STAR are value for money alternatives from my viewpoint.
Favourite factor: One of the two market leaders has snared a Placepot position with winning the relevant event.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Kempton card on Sunday with last year’s final stats offered:
4 runners—Paul Webber (0/7 last season)
4—Phil York (No runners)
3—Nicky Henderson (12/42 – Profit of 7 points to level stakes)
2—Tom George (3/15 – Profit of 8 points)
2—Paul Nicholls (4/38 – loss of 12 points)
2—Henry Oliver (0/1)
2—Jeremy Scott (1/11 – loss of 3 points)
1—Kim Bailey (3/18 – Profit of 5 points)
1—Michael Bell (No runners)
1—Peter Bowen (No runners)
1—David Bridgwater (0/5)
1—Mick Channon (0/4)
1—David Dennis (2/6 – slight loss on the year)
1—Richenda Ford (No runners)
1—Chris Gordon (2/18 – Profit of 7 points)
1—Richard Hobson (0/1)
1—Ron Hodges (No runners)
1—John Jenkins (0/3)
1—Alan King (5/42 – loss of 16 points)
1—Tom Lacey (0/1)
1—Charlie Longsdon (2/13 – Profit of 3 points)
1—Charlie Mann (0/5)
1—Donald McCain (0/1)
1—Graeme McPherson (0/5)
1—Gary Moore (3/28 – Profit of 3 points)
1—Seamus Mullins (1/4 – Profit of 30 points)
1—Ben Pauling (4/11 – Profit of 1 point)
1—Richard Price (No runners)
1—Michael Scudamore (0/2)
1—Oliver Sherwood (2/12 – loss of 5 points)
1—David Skelton (4/27 – loss of 17 points)
1—David Weston (No runner)
1—Evan Williams (0/7)
45 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Newcastle: This is a new (A/W) meeting