AINTREE - OCTOBER 23
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2015: £69.30 (7 favourites - 2 winners - 1 placed - 4 unplaced)
Sunday's Placepot permutation at Aintree:
Leg 1 (1.40): 5 (No Comment) & 1 (Abbotswood)
Leg 2 (2.10): 11 (Globalisation), 1 (Scoop The Pot) & 5 (Kerrow)
Leg 3 (2.45): 1 (Double Ross), 2 (Eastlake) & 4 (Forgotten Gold)
Leg 4 (3.15): 4 (Cardinal Walter), 7 (Perform) & 1 (Ubak)
Leg 5 (3.50): 2 (Sure De Grugy) & 4 (Vibrato Valtat)
Leg 6 (4.25): 4 (What Happens Next), 6 (Zanstra) & 3 (Beggars Cross)
Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Sunday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
1.40: Beaten favourite NO COMMENT is entitled to another chance in this grade/company, though ABBOTSWOOD is an interesting newcomer to the Charlie Longsdon yard. Champion Jockey Richard Johnson (I still enjoy typing those words) boasts a 28% strike rate for the yard this season, four points up on his five year ratio for Charlie. The declarations of Robin Roe and Smoking Dixie add interest to proceedings to say the least.
Favourite factor: Both of last year’s inaugural 3/1 joint favourites finished out of the frame in a ‘short field’ contest. New readers might like to know that the term ‘short field’ relates to races for 5/6/7 runners in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way/Placepot perspectives.
2.10: Six-year-olds have ruled the roost thus far, even though only two renewals of the second race on the card have been contested. Vintage representaives make up the three winners of the race to date, given that two six-year-olds could not be split by the judge last year. The pick of this year’s relevant declarations will hopefully prove to be GLOBALISATION, SCOOP THE POT and KERROW via just four vintage representatives. Vintage raiders are 5/2 to extend the good run before the form book is consulted.
Favourite factor: One of the two favourites has claimed a Placepot position thus far by dead heating for the gold medal twelve months ago.
Record of the course winners in the field:
2.45: Ten-year-olds have won seven of the eight renewals of this Veterans' Handicap Chase, with Nigel Twiston-Davies (DOUBLE ROSS) the only trainer to have saddled more than one winner of the contest thus far, the trainer having snared gold on three occasions. Never one to miss a trick, Nigel’s raider is a ten-year-old, alongside fellow relevant declarations EASTLAKE and FORGOTTEN GOLD. The overnight reserve nomination is awarded to the Irish raider RUSSIAN REGENT from Gordon Elliott’s stable.
Favourite factor: Three of the seven favourites have claimed toteplacepot position to date, statistics which include two (3/1 & 15/8) winners.
3.15: Nicky Henderson has easily saddled the most winners at this venue in recent years (check the five year stats below to confirm Nicky’s 19% strike rate) whereby CARDINAL WALTER is the first name on the team sheet in this competitive event, attempting to follow up the stable victory twelve months ago. PERFORM won the opening race on the card last year and with the ground set to ride under similar (good) conditions, Richard Johnson’s mount looks sure to figure prominently, arguably alongside UBAK who defends a 100% record at the track following two previous assignments.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 6/4 market leader lost out (by a length) to an 11/2 chance trained by Nicky Henderson.
Record of course winners in the fourth event on the Aintree card:
2/2—Ubak (good to soft & soft)
3.50: Six of the last seven winners have carried a minimum burden of 11 stones to victory, with SIRE DE GRUGY and VIBRATO VALTAT making plenty of appeal between them for different reasons. Paul Nicholls had saddled seven of his last eleven runners to winning effect at the time of writing (before Saturday’s sport was contested) whereby anything that the trainer declares at present must be respected. That said, this trip looks spot on for SIRE DE GRUGY these days (as opposed to Smad Place) and Gary Moore’s fine old warrior gets first billing from yours truly. Smad Place is surely out for the airing en route to defending his glorious ‘Hennessy’ crown, a race which (unbelievably) is less than five weeks away. That notion let’s in GOD’S OWN to contest the swag though I have never called his assignments accurately to date. I guess we all have horses that run well when we don’t expect them to, and vice versa.
Favourite factor: Only one (joint) favourite has prevailed during the last nine years in this Grade 2 contest, whilst just four of the 13 market leaders have finished in the frame (exact science) during the extended study period of eleven years.
Record of course winners in the ‘Old Roan’:
1/2--God’s Own (good to soft)
1/2--Royal Regatta (good)
4.25: Donald McCain is another trainer who has been saddling winners for fun of late whereby his recent hat trick achiever WHAT HAPPENS NOW cannot be ruled out of the mix in an interesting Placepot finale. Looking down the card before starting this analysis, I made an immediate note that three selections would have to be made to feel confident of landing the dividend, if we were still live after the fifth leg of our favourite wager. The two other horses offered in the overnight mix are ZANSTRA and BEGGARS CROSS.
Favourite factor: The toteplacepot finale is a new race at Aintree on Sunday.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Aintree card on Sunday with five year stats:
7—Runners Philip Hobbs (10/89)
5—Nigel Twiston-Davies (11/83)
4—Peter Bowen (10/85)
4—Tom George (7/39)
4—Jonjo O’Neill (10/77)
4—Colin Tizzard (6/28)
3—Alan King (7/70)
3—Paul Nicholls (12/137)
3—Dan Skelton (4/30)
2—Rebecca Curtis (8/53)
2—Harry Fry (1/19)
2—Lisa Harrison (0/5)
2—Nicky Henderson (27/141)
2—Charlie Longsdon (4/50)
2—Donald McCain (7/125)
2—Gary Moore (2/15)
2—James Nash (1/9)
2—Dr Richard Newland (3/26)
2—David Pipe (5/68)
2—Katy Price (0/2)
+ 16 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
75 declared runners
Placepot dividend at Wincanton last year:
£14.50 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 4 placed – 1 unplaced