CARLISLE – OCTOBER 30
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2015: £306.90 (7 favourites - 3 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)
Sunday's Placepot permutation at Carlisle:
Leg 1 (1.00): 1 (Two Taffs) & 9 (Steal My Thunder)
Leg 2 (1.35): 4 (Forthefunofit), 5 (Twentytwo’s Taken) & 2 (Knockgraffon)
Leg 3 (2.10): 16 (Four Mile Beach), 11 (Lyme Park) & 6 (Like A Diamond)
Leg 4 (2.45): 3 (Belmount), 8 (Kilbree Chief) & 11 (Askamore Darsi)
Leg 5 (3.15): 9 (Walking In The Air) & 4 (Top Billing)
Leg 6 (3.50): 1 (Bristol De Mai), 3 (More Of That) & 2 (Seeyouatmidnight)
Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Sunday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
1.00: Five-year-olds have won eight of the last fifteen renewals of this event though that said, six-year-olds have claimed four of the last seven contests. The fourteen pound weight differential between the top and bottom weights could bring the pair close together here, though I am still inclined to believe that TWO TAFFS will prove too strong for SOCKSY close home. Dividing the pair on the scales is STEAL MY THUNDER representing the powerful Hobbs/Johnson bandwagon.
Favourite factor: Eight of the last fourteen renewals have fallen the way of the favourites of one description or another. Twelve of the last thirteen market leaders have finished in the frame (exact science).
1.35: This second event on the card should offer us plenty of options if all thirteen entries face the starter. Having said that, I offered similar words about last year’s contest and yet the winner (Shimla Dawn) has failed to land another success via five subsequent assignments. Upwards and onward in positive mode however by suggesting that FORTHEFUNOFIT, TWENTYTWO’S TAKEN and KNOCKGRAFFON should land a Placepot position or two between them.
Favourite factor: Both (5/2 & 11/4) favourites have missed out on Placepot positions thus far.
2.10: Five-year-olds lead the six-year-olds 3-2 via five renewals thus far whilst horses carrying 11-2 or more have secured nine of the thirteen available toteplacepot positions, statistics which include four of the five winners. LYME PARK and LIKE A DIAMOND qualify via the vintage and weight trends. That all said, Malcolm Jefferson deserves luck in running here having declared his three-year-old FOUR MILE BEACH against much old horses. If you are in any doubt that Malcolm has taken leave of his senses, you might be reminded that the trainer holds an 83% record at the track this season via a ratio of 5/6.
Favourite factor: Three of the six favourites (via five renewals) have claimed toteplacepot positions by winning their respective events.
2.45: Nine of the last twelve winners have carried a maximum burden of 11-4 whereby eight of the twelve runners qualify, the pick of which will hopefully prove to be BELMOUNT and Lucinda Russell’s consistent performer KILBREE CHIEF. If the weight trend goes base over apex, Askamore Darsi would be the horse to home in on from my viewpoint, with Donald McCain boasting eight points of level stake profits at Carlisle this season this season via his four winners.
Favourite factor: Four favourites have won during the last thirteen years. Eight of the fourteen favourites have secured toteplacepot positions during the last twelve years.
Record of the course winners in the field:
1/2--Cultrim Abbey (soft)
1/4--Fill The Power (good)
2/6—Carrigdhoun (2 x good to soft)
1/1—Full Jack (good)
3.15: Nicky Richards has won both renewals that far (albeit with the same horse) and the trainer was double handed at the four day stage last week. Nicky has offered the green light to TOP BILLING and though the trainer’s Monsun representative has not lived up to his name, Craig Nichol should get a decent tune out of his mount, the seven-year-old having had the benefit of a pipe-opener last month. WALKING IN THE AIR is feared most, given the Dan/Harry Skelton bandwagon rolls relentlessly on in full throttle.
Favourite factor: The inaugural 9/4 favourite duly obliged before last year’s 11/4 market leader finished down the field.
Record of the course winners in the fifth race on the card:
1/2--Shades Of Midnight (soft)
1/2--Upsilon Bleu (good to soft)
1/1—Sergeant Mattie (good)
3.50: Although only three runners have been declared for the Placepot finale, it’s impossible to leave any one of these contenders out of the overnight mix. BRISTOL DE MAI is as game as the proverbial pebble, whilst MORE OF THAT has more than a touch of class. Add the undoubted ability of the Scottish Grand National bronze medallist SEEYOUATMIDNIGHT into the equation and we have a wonderful event in prospect. All three horses will pay their way this year but as for naming a winner here, I’ll leave that to you!
Favourite factor: All three market leaders thus far have secured toteplacepot positions (one winner).
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Carlisle card on Sunday alongside stats for this season at the track with profit/loss figures to level stakes:
4 runners—Brian Ellison (1/4 – slight profit)
4—Donald McCain (4/15 – Profit of 8 points)
4—Lucinda Russll (0/9)
4—Sue Smith (0/6)
3—Nick Alexander (0/5)
3—Jennie Candlish (1/3 – Profit of 1 point)
3—Jonjo O’Neill (0/2)
3—Dan Skelton (1/4 – loss of 2 points)
3—Colin Tizzard (---)
2—Benjamin Arthey (---)
2—Susan Corbett (0/1)
2—Tim Easterby (0/1)
2—Nigel Hawke (---)
2—Philip Hobbs (0/1)
2—Tom Lacey (0/2)
2—David Loder (---)
2—Fergal O’Brien (---)
2—Nicky Richards (0/5)
2—Pauline Robson (0/1)
2—Nigel Twiston-Davies (0/1)
2—Alistair Whillans (0/2)
2—Donald Whillans (---)
+ 21 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
78 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Huntingdon: £26.20 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced