EPSOM - SEPTEMBER 25
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2015: £94.80 (7 favourites - 2 winners - 1 placed - 4 unplaced)
Sunday's Placepot permutation at Newmarket:
Leg 1 (2.00): 3 (Kodiac Khan), 1 (Trading Punches) & 2 (Mister Sunshine)
Leg 2 (2.35): 2 (Max Zorin) & 5 (Defoe)
Leg 3 (3.15): 10 (Banditry), 9 (Rotherwick) & 8 (Mica Mika)
Leg 4 (3.45): 7 (Star Blaze), 8 (High Draw) & 9 (Prosecute)
Leg 5 (4.20): 1 (English Summer), 2 (Thames Knight) & 13 (Fandango)
Leg 6 (4.55): 3 (Cape Banjo)
Suggested stake: 162 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Sunday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
2.10: 11 of the 16 horses to have secured toteplacepot positions thus far have carried a minimum burden of 9-2, statistics which include four of the six gold medallists. Only two horses truly qualify if we take claiming pilots into account, one of which have been my selection but for dropping into the ‘inferior’ sector of the handicap. Course winner KODIAC KHAN is the horse in question though between you, me and that well known gatepost, Hugo Palmer’s raider will figure in my Placepot mix, even if I have gone off the idea of a single bet because of the weight scenario. Genuine ‘qualifiers’ TRADING PUNCHES and MISTER SUNSHINE will accompany Hugo’s late May foal in the overnight mix.
Favourite factor: Six of the nine favourites (via six renewals) have secured toteplacepot positions thus far, statistics which include three winners.
Nursery record this season of represented trainers – stat compiled before Saturday’s sport was contested):
2/14—David Brown (Trading Punches)
2/8—Clive Cox (Mister Sunshine)
2/13—Hugo Palmer (Kodiac Khan)
3/27—Karl Burke (Mutahaady)
7/72—Richard Hannon (Monoshika)
1/8—Sir Mark Prescott (Law Power)
1/2--Paul Cole (Assassinate)
0/1—William Jarvis (Juanito Chico)
0/2—Pat Phelan (Sixties Habana)
Record of course winner in the field:
1/1—Kodiac Khan (good)
2.40: The official assessor will not hear of defeat for Medieval in this event I suspect but as the most exposed horse in the line-up, I am going to oppose Paul Cole’s raider from a value for money perspective at the very least. DEFOE has to prove that his soft ground victory can be repeated under much faster conditions in all probability, whilst Andrew Balding’s MAX ZORIN has plenty to do according to the handicapper. That said, we all have one race in the locker on any Placepot card when we go for broke – and this is mine!
Favourite factor: Four of the last nine favourites have prevailed, the biggest priced winner during the period being a 9/2 chance.
3.15: Five of the seven winners (including the last four gold medallists) have carried a maximum burden of 9-1, statistics which bring in the bottom three horses in the handicap, namely BANDITRY, ROTHERWICK and NAVAJO WAR DANCE, the trio being listed in order of preference. MICA MIKA potentially joins the trio via a jockey claim and it’s impossible to ignore Richard Fahey’s raider accordingly.
Favourite factor: Four of the seven market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include three successful (7/2-10/3-11/4) favourites.
Record of course winners in the third race:
1/1—Innocent Touch (good)
1/2--Banditry (good to firm)
3.45: Eight of the last ten winners thus far have carried a maximum burden of 8-13 and it’s worth noting that Mick Channon has declared his raider STAR BLAZE off the exact mark, the trainer coming to the gig on a hat trick. The other three entries from the bottom of the weights all have something to recommend their each way/Placepot chances, namely HIGH DRAW, PROSECUTE and LORELINA.
Favourite factor: The top priced winner was returned at just 13/2 until a 25/1 chance in 2012 upset the apple-cart. Things have subsequently returned to ‘normal’ thankfully. Two clear market leaders have scored via eight renewals during the last 12 years alongside a 4/1 joint favourite. Seven of the 12 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions during the study period.
Record of course winners in the fourth contest:
1/2--King’s Pavillion (good to soft)
1/2--Medburn Dream (soft)
2/3—Lorelina (both wins gained under good conditions)
4.20: ENGLISH SUMMER defends a 2/2 record at the track and I have a notion that top weight will not be enough to stop the Richard Fahey representative from going very close as the card draws towards its conclusion. Two other unbeaten runners put records on the line and I see little (or no) reason to oppose this pair from a Placepot perspective at least, namely THAMES KNIGHT and FANDANGO.
Favourite factor: Five of the eleven favourites have finished in the frame, stats which include three market leaders. It takes a brave punter to take restricted odds in an apprentice event around these twists and turns on ground that runs away from the far rail at the business end of the contest.
Record of course winners in the fifth event:
2/2—English Summer (good & heavy)
1/1—Thanes Knight (good)
1/5—Jupiter Custos (good)
4.55: Whichever way you roll the dice, there are few more unlucky maidens in training than CAPE BANJO who has finished second via six of ten assignments to date. The good thing about having a ‘banker’ in the last leg of the Placepot is that we can ‘lay off’ at a short price on the exchanges in the place market, thus ensuring a profit on the day.
Favourite factor: Six of the seven favourites have finished in the frame, statistics which include five winners. That said, the 1/3 market leader two years ago was beaten in a four runner 'win only' event, a result which was predicted in this column.
All references to placed horses on these pages are based on an exact science regarding general place terms offered by bookmakers
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Epsom card on Sunday:
4—Ralph Bennett (3/11 this season - Profit of 13 points to level stakes)
3—George Baker (2/12 – Profit of 10 points)
3—Andrew Balding (2/13 – loss of 4 points)
3—Jim Boyle (1/11 – loss of 2 points)
3—Karl Burke (0/3)
3—Paul Cole (2/11 - Profit of 6 points)
3—Richard Fahey (3/24 – Profit of 13 points)
2—Charlie Appleby (4/20 – loss of 5 points)
2—Lee Carter (0/10)
2—James Fanshawe (0/1)
2—Ivan Furtado (1/2 – Profit of 1 point)
2—Paul Henderson (1/4 – Profit of 1 point)
2—Mark Johnston (3/22 – loss of 4 points)
2—Hughie Morrison (0/2)
2—Brendan Powell (0/6)
2—David Simcock (0/2)
2—Saeed Bin Suroor (---)
2—Ian Williams (0/2)
+ 28 trainer with one entry
72 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Musselburgh: £113.50 – 6 favourites – 4 winners & 2 unplaced
Epsom overview - 5 year juvenile record of represented trainers in the relevant two-year-old events:
0/1—David Brown (Trading Punches)
1/3—Clive Cox (Mister Sunshine)
1/2--Hugo Palmer (Kodiac Khan)
0/1—Karl Burke (Mutahaady)
5/18—Richard Hannon (Monoshika)
0/5—Sir Mark Prescott (Law Power)
0/1—Paul Cole (Assassinate)
0/1—William Jarvis (Juanito Chico)
0/11—Pat Phelan (Sixties Habana)
1/3—William Knight (Jackhammer)
7/24—Andrew Balding (Max Zorrin)
0/1—Paul Cole (Medieval)
0/1—Tom Dascombe (Star Of Rory)
No runners—Roger Varian (Defoe)