BRIGHTON – SEPTEMBER 3
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £57.80 (6 favourites - 2 winners - 3 placed - 1 unplaced)
Sunday's Placepot permutation at Brighton:
Leg 1 (2.00): 1 (Section Onesixsix), 6 (Mother Of Dragons) & 2 (Episcia)
Leg 2 (2.30): 5 (Upavon) & 4 (Buxted Dream)
Leg 3 (3.00): 5 (Queens Gallery) & 1 (My Boy Henry)
Leg 4 (3.30): 1 (White Chocolate), 3 (Mia Tesoro) & 2 (Impressive Day)
Leg 5 (4.00): 3 (Inconceivable), 2 (Pete So High) & 1 (Milky Way)
Leg 6 (4.30): 1 (Her Terms), 5 (Whiteley) & 4 (Mercers)
Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Sunday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
2.00: MOTHER OF DRAGONS is well exposed already but then again, we have passed the last Bank Holiday before the next one at Christmas so I guess the flat season is drawing towards a close, certainly from a ‘decent meeting’ perspective anyway. Mick Channon might not believe his luck having declared his Dandy Man newcomer SECTION ONESIXSIX whereby the March foal has every chance of becoming competitive, given the grade and (respectfully) her rivals. EPISCIA is the other potential winner in the field from my viewpoint.
Favourite factor: All three (4/7-5/4-2/1) favourites had prevailed before last year’s 13/8 market leader finished nearer last than first in a short field contest. New readers might like to know that the term ‘short field’ relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way and Placepot perspectives.
2.30: It’s difficult to get away from two of the three course winners in the contest, the pair with the best ratios here at Brighton. On the one hand you have BUXTED DREAM who represents Luca Cumani who boasts a ratio of 3/5 at the track this season (like days of old for the trainer), whilst UPAVON has only been beaten once in four starts at the switchback circuit, the three victories having been gained on today’s projected (good to firm) going. There is plenty of rain moving in today though according to the radar I have just seen, the wet stuff might not arrive in Brighton until flag fall in the opening event, whereby the call is marginally in favour of UPAVON at the time of writing. Keep an eye on those showers however as they could swing the odds in favour of the market leader (Buxted Dream).
Favourite factor: Three of the five favourites have secured Placepot postions via four renewals, statistics which include one (7/2) winner.
Record of course winners in the second event:
1/5—Iseemist (good to soft)
1/1—Buxted Dream (good to soft)
3/4—Upavon (3 x good to firm)
3.00: Although this is a ‘new race’ because of its ‘novice status’, the class, distance and ‘juvenile make up’ are exactly the same as it has always been, whereby I am keeping the favourite stats in the mix below for the last time before taking the official route next year. It is entirely up to you if you think pinning a new name onto the race makes the figures null and void! The third place Placepot position has been lost via three non-runners already, though I’m hoping that QUEENS GALLERY can take this event, having spied the 5/1 Ladbroke quote as dawn was breaking over the city of Bristol. Noted making late progress on debut over six at Windsor on his debut, Richard Hannon’s Dutch Art colt could really appreciate this additional furlong, though I’m hoping that he does not get run off his legs coming down the hill before stamina kicks into play up the straight. Should that be the case, my attention will be drawn to my other contender for the contest, namely MY BOY HENRY who has registered victories on ground either side of good going, whereby connections should not have too much to worry about regarding any showers that hit the Brighton area this afternoon. The added bonus of course is that trainer Karl Burke has raided southern courses to really good effect this term. Karl’s Footstepsinthesand colt is helped by Clifford Lee’s potential three pound claim which negates part of the concession to his six rivals as things stand at the time of writing.
Favourite factor: Three of the four favourites to date secured Placepot positions by winning their respective events at 6/4-10/11-4/11, though detectives are still searching for the 11/4 market leader that finished out of the frame two years ago.
3.30: Three-year-olds have won all four renewals this far, similar words having been offered last year before my 3/1 selection won twelve months ago. Unfortunately, I doubt we will obtain a much better price than the 5/2 currently on offer about WHITE CHOCOLATE, with David Simcock’s top weight having attracted all the money overnight. Certainly the 5/1 trade press quote always looked fanciful in the extreme which will especially be the case if the rain arrives sooner rather than later this afternoon. A winner of 3/4 races under yielding conditions, I believe the market will react (extremely perhaps) one way or the other by the time that the runners are parading for this fourth race on the card dependent upon the weather conditions. Should rain swerve the south downs, MIA TESORO would be the speculative each way call ahead of 2/3 course winner IMPRESSIVE DAY.
Favourite factor: Four of the five market leaders (via four renewals) have finished in the frame (exact science), statistics which include one (3/1**) winner.
Record of course winners in the fourth contest:
2/7—Impressive Day (good & good to firm)
4.00: Call my cynical, but this event has a ‘win only’ look about it, which will be the case if any one of the five runners is withdrawn. A scenario like that will be good news for you if the pick the relevant winner of course, especially if the gold medallist is not returned as favourite. In case readers are unaware of the Placepot rules, units from a non-runner are automatically transferred onto the market leader. In the case of joint or co favourites being returned, the horse with the lowest number (two as opposed to six for example) is deemed as the ‘favourite’. As for the race, I am not taking a chance here by declaring three options for the contest, namely INCONCEIVABLE, PETE SO HIGH and MILKY WAY. You are in a better position than yours truly in terms of knowing the weather at the track later today alongside a potential non-runner that might rear its ugly head. If the rain does not arrive on time, I would have no hesitation in having a saver on Lyrica’s Lion, given the projected 12/1 quotes, almost right across the board.
Favourite factor: The inaugural 2/1 market leader duly obliged before last year’s 5/6 favourite secured a Placepot position, albeit after being beaten in a photo finish.
4.30: I struggle to get WHITELEY right because when I support Mick Channon’s Dark Angel filly she seems to have an off day, whilst the reverse is true when opposed! Silvestre’s mount should not have a problem with conditions given the relevant sire though that said, both of her victories have been gained on fast ground. Either way, I am adding two others into the mix to try and ensure that we scoop the pot if were are live going into the last leg of our favourite wager. MERCERS is the optimistic shout, whilst HER TERMS has been the one for money on the exchanges overnight.
Favourite factor: The Placepot finale is a new race on the card, given that the contest had dropped a notch in ‘class’, whilst half a furlong has been chopped off the distance.
Record of course winners in the final leg:
1/5—Whiteley (good to firm)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Brighton card on Sunday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:
5—Richard Hannon (5/20 +15)
3—Luca Cumani (3/5 +4)
3—Richard Hughes (6/29 +2)
3—Gary Moore (6/30 +30)
3—Stuart Williams (2/12 – loss of 8 points)
2—Mick Channon (2/24 – loss of 14 points)
2—Brian Meehan (0/1)
+ 30 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
51 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Worcester: £65.20 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced