FONTWELL - SEPTEMBER 4
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2015: £88.50 (6 favourites - 1 winner & 5 unplaced)
Sunday's Placepot permutation at Fontwell:
Leg 1 (2.20): 1 (Kayf Willow) & 3 (Belcanto)
Leg 2 (2.50): 1 (Diable De Sivola) & 2 (Milrow)
Leg 3 (3.20): 1 (Heurtevent), 4 (Mrs Burbridge) & 6 (Yourholidayisover)
Leg 4 (3.50): 3 (Workbench), 5 (Breaking Bits) & 4 (Crimson Ark)
Leg 5 (4.20): 2 (Sir Toby) & 4 (Canton Prince)
Leg 6 (4.50): 6 (Walter White), 1 (Ciceron) & 7 (Town Mouse)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
2.20: This meeting marks the start of the NH season (proper) for yours truly, given that I choose this fixture over the competitive racing at York year on year. Course and distance winner TITCH STRIDER finished fifth in last 'year's renewal, whilst fellow C/D winners KENTFORD HEIRESS and BELCANTO have plenty to recommend their respective chances. If we just took those three options in this five runner event that would be fine, but Philip Hobbs (3/4 at the track this season) complicates matters having declared KAYF WILLOW. An intriguing start to the meeting and no mistake.
Favourite factor: Both favourites had finished second to date claiming toteplacepot positions along the way before last year's 3/1 market leader could only finish ninth of ten finishers.
Fontwell record of runners in the first race:
2/4--Kentford Heiress (both on good ground)
2/2--Belcanto (2 x good)
1/10--Titch Strider (good)
2.50: Lizzie Kelly remains great value for her five pound claim (the first lady rider to partner a Grade 1 winner in Britain/Ireland) and another success looks on the card here via the Uttoxter winner DIABLE DE SIVOLA. Lizzie was aboard when the Nick Williams raider scored on good ground at the Staffordshire venue and the three-year-old could literally be anything. MILROW has not been beaten far since scoring and Richard Newland's raider still looks the main threat to the selection despite those two recent defeats.
Favourite factor: 16 of the 19 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions (11 winners), whilst 15 of the last 17 winners were returned at odds of 9/2 or less.
3.20: Eight of the last nine winners have carried a minimum burden of 11-1 which narrows the field down to just one horse, namely HEURTEVENT. Tony Carroll's raider benefits from a five pound claimer in the plate, though the burden still comfortably fits within the 'superior' area of the handicap. All the entries have been busy this season already, none more so than MRS BURBRIDGE who represents Neil Mulholland, the trainer who has enjoyed a fine start this term. Any schoolchildren at the meeting will not be spending their pocket money by backing YOURHOLIDAYISOVER for obvious reasons. It might have been fifty years ago, but I still remember September being my least favourite month of the year! Back on equine front, Tom Gretton's entry should figure prominently.
Favourite factor: Four of the last nine renewals have fallen the way of favourites of one type or another, whilst five of the ten market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions.
3.50: WORKBENCH should have his conditions and with Dan Skelton having saddled ten winners since the start of July (23% strike rate at the time of writing), Harry Skelton's mount is the first name on my team sheet. Course winner BREAKING BITS is another to consider, especially as trainer Jamie Snowden saddled a winner at this meeting on the corresponding card twelve months ago. CRIMSON ARK completes my trio against the remaining four contenders in this 'short field' contest. New readers might want to know that the term 'short field' relates to race for 5/6/7 runners in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way/Placepot perspectives.
Favourite factor: Search parties are still out looking for the three beaten favourites in this contest to date.
Fontwell record of runners in the fourth race:
2/4--Workbench (2 x good)
2/4--Breaking Bits (good & good to soft)
1/2--Sir Dylan (good)
1/9--Shalianzi (good to soft)
4.20: Five-year-olds have won the last six renewals, whilst Dr Richard Newland comes into the race on a four timer. Sure enough, Richard's representative this time around is five-year-old SIR TOBY who justified odds on favouritism at Market Rasen at the second time of asking. Fellow vintage representative CANTON PRINCE looks the obvious threat.
Favourite factor: 10 of the 12 market leaders have finished in the frame, whilst favourites have won three of the last seven renewals. Nine of the 10 winners during the last decade have scored at a top price of 5/1.
4.50: Ten of the last twelve winners have carried a minimum burden of 10-13 and though the stat is not relevant on this occasion (all runners qualify), I will leave the fact in the analysis as I know that some of you keep records. The pick of the seven runners in a difficult finale to unravel consists of WALTER WHITE and the Neil King pair CICERON and TOWN MOUSE, though the trio are not listed in order of preference because at the time of writing, no preference is in place!
Favourite factor: 11 of the 15 favourites have finished in the frame to date (four winners), whilst the biggest priced winner was returned at 8/1.
Fontwell record of runners in the sixth event:
1/3--Town Mouse (good)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Fontwell card on Sunday:
6--Phil York (0/2 at Fontwell this season)
4--Gary Moore (2/20 - winners at 6/1 & 5/2)
4--Neil Mulholland (5/13 - winners at 11/1-9/2-9/2-Evens*-2/11*)
3--Jamie Snowden (2/6 - winners at 3/1 & 11/4)
2--Seamus Durack (0/3)
2--Philip Hobbs (3/4 - winners at 11/4-85/40*-2/1*)
2--Neil King (2/3 - winners at 9/4* & 4/5*)
2--Tom Gretton (---)
2--Dr Richard Newland (---)
2--Dan Skelton (1/2 - winner at 11/10*)
+ 21 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
50 declared runners
General overview - corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
York: £759.00 - 6 favourites - 1 winner - 2 placed - 3 unplaced
Trainers who saddled winners on last year's Fontwell card who have runners there on Sunday:
Anthony Honeyball (5/1 winner last year) - 1 runner on the card
Dr Richard Newalnd (7/2) - 2 runners
Jamie Snowdon (4/1) - 3 runners