HAYDOCK - AUGUST 10
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £89.20 (6 favourites - 3 winners & 3 unplaced)
Thursday's Placepot permutation at Haydock:
Leg 1 (1.50): 7 (Punkawallah), 4 (Bishop Of Bling) & 1 (Indian Chief)
Leg 2 (2.20): 1 (Staxton) & 3 (Cool Spirit)
Leg 3 (2.50): 2 (Lexington Sky), 3 (Haworth) & 7 (Twilight Spirit)
Leg 4 (3.20): 6 (Champagne Bob), 1 (Casterbridge) & 5 (Danish Duke)
Leg 5 (3.50): 2 (Sainted) & 6 (Courier)
Leg 6 (4.20): 4 (Always Thankful) & 7 (Conqueress)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Thursday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
1.50: Nine of the last twelve winners of the opening race of the three day meeting have carried 9-5 or more, whilst four and five-year-olds have each secured four victories during the last 14 years. The biggest priced winner was returned at 10/1 during the study period before the 2014 gold medallist emerged at 50/1 and hoping results return to type on this occasion, my short list consists of PUNKAWALLAH, BISHOP OF BLING and INDIAN CHIEF. There has been plenty of money about for the first named pair, whilst INDIAN CHIEF has no problems on account of ground, with all three runners hailing from the ‘superior’ sector of the handicap. Given the ground, Anton Chigurh is offered the reserve nomination.
Favourite factor: Nine of the last 13 favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include three successful market leaders from a win perspective.
Record of the course winners in the opening contest:
1/5—Anton Chigurh (soft)
1/1—Punkawallah (good to firm)
2.20: Only STAXTON has held its overnight (4/1) price as all the other entries have drifting from their opening quotes. Indeed, STAXTON is 4/1 right across the board, with each and every layer obviously respecting the chance of Tim Easterby’s course winner. That said, COOL SPIRIT is a worthy favourite judged on his third placed effort under yielding conditions at Beverley on his first day at school. This experience this pair take into the contest could be the key element under the conditions, given that ‘newcomers’ often take time to get their act together when there is plenty of moisture in the ground.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 4/6 market leader duly obliged in a short field event. New readers might want to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses qualify from each way and Placepot perspectives.
Record of the course winner in the second race on the card:
1/1—Staxton (Good to firm)
2.50: Nine of the last fourteen winners have carried weights of 9-0 or less, with five qualifiers in the mix this time around. I guess that might be the reason that Ladbrokes are the only firm offering genuine each way odds about LEXINGTON SKY and HAWORTH this morning. If other firms were standing out from the crowd overnight, the prices have been clipped according, with only the ‘magic sign’ standing up to each way pressure at the time of writing. If the weight trend is to be extended, TWILIGHT SPIRIT should prove to be the pick of the quintet.
Favourite factor: Nine of the fifteen favourites to date have finished out of the frame, though three market leaders have won during the study period.
3.20: Five-year-olds have won three of the five renewals to date and two of this year’s three vintage representatives make each way appeal here, namely CHAMPAGNE BOB and CASTERBRIDGE. At first glance, there is every indication that the handicapper might have caught up with this pair now, though being able to handle today’s conditions negates that negative scenario from my viewpoint whereby both runners are added into the Placepot equation. DANSH DUKE looks very skinny at the 6/5 odds offer at the time of writing from a win perspective, though his Placepot chance is there for all to see.
Favourite factor: Three of the eight favourites have finished in the frame, statistics which include two successful (7/2 & 9/4) market leaders from a win perspective. That said, this was the (only) Placepot race that trashed so many units last year, the frame having been filled by horses sent off at 14/1-14/1-11/1.
Record of course winner in the fourth event:
1/3--Casterbridge (good to soft)
3.50: Marjorie Fife’s soft ground course winner COURIER represents win and place value at around the 16/1 mark though from a win perspective, SAINTED looks to hold all the aces here. Connections have no cause for concern regarding the conditions for their Dutch Art filly who takes a considerable step down in class, having contested the Group 3 Oak Tree Stakes at Goodwood last week when finding traffic problems in the race at a vital stage. Marjorie saddled a winner with her last runner at Catterick with Courier being her lone raider today, whilst William Haggas (Sainted) has been banging in gold medallists all season at an alarming rate.
Favourite factor: This is a new event (for fillies) on the Haydock card.
Record of course winner in the fifth race:
4.20: Twelve of the thirteen available Placepot positions have been claimed by fillies carrying a minimum weight of 8-13, statistics which include all five winners at 7/1-7/1-9/2-4/1-11/4. Unfortunately, only one of the remaining ‘dead eight’ runners is eliminated via the weight trend, which leaves us with ALWAYS THANKFUL and CONQUESRESS to represent yours truly. The first named raider should make light of only a two pound rise for a victory under similar conditions at Yarmouth recently, whilst I can report that CONQUERESS has been the subject of plenty of each way support on nearly all of the boards overnight.
Favourite factor: Four of the five favourites have finished out with the washing thus far (no winners).
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Haydock card on Thursday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:
4 runners—Eric Alston (0/6)
3—Karl Burke (2/20 – loss of 12 points)
3—Tom Dascombe (11/57 – Profit of 8 points)
3—Kevin Ryan (0/5)
2—James Bethell (0/5)
2—Tim Easterby (1/16 – Profit of 35 points)
2—David Evans (1/17 – loss of 2 points)
2—Richard Fahey (2/31 – loss of 13 points)
2—Roger Fell (0/7)
2—John Gallagher (0/2)
2—Michael Mullineaux (1/2 – Profit of 24 points)
2—Lynn Siddall (0/1)
2—Nigel Tinkler (0/3)
2—Chris Wall (0/2)
2—Lisa Williamson (0/4)
+ 3924 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
59 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Brighton: £210.80 – 8 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 3 unplaced
Sandown: £390.40 – 6 favourites – 3 winners & 3 unplaced
Yarmouth: £475.00 – 7 favourites – 3 winners & 4 unplaced
Newcastle: £144.80 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 2 unplaced
Wolverhampton: £10.10 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced